BetMGM: It's Showtime Handicap – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

13:57

BetMGM: It's Showtime Handicap

Date 2023-12-07

Distance 7f14y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £4,501

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
11 (8)	Haworth Star Bay J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Richard Fahey	J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Richard Fahey	131	p	557032	65	84	75	27d	—	—	-8	19.3	0.56/1	9/4 31%
Placed in both AW handicaps, latterly when very close second at Newcastle last month
5 (11)	Rocket Rod Bay J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Geoffrey Harker	J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Geoffrey Harker	133	—	348062	67	85	51	23d	—	—	+1	12.6	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Back in good nick when very close second at Newcastle (1m) last month; 7f also suits
3 (2)	Keep Me Stable Bay J:Tommie Jakes(7) T:Linda Perratt	J:Tommie Jakes(7) T:Linda Perratt	134	—	300411	68	84	51	18d	—	—	+14	24.6	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Came good with two 7f wins at Newcastle last month and might still be on the upgrade
9 (9)	Soames Forsyte Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Michael Herrington	J:Tom Eaves T:Michael Herrington	132	—	737873	66	83	50	35d	—	—	-1	10.9	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Third off 1lb higher when dropped to 7f at Newcastle last month; had wind op soon after
2 (5)	At Liberty Bay J:David Egan T:Michael Appleby	J:David Egan T:Michael Appleby	134	—	146657	68	79	57	61d	—	—	-2	7.2	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Triple 1m2f winner for Michael Bell; drops to 7f for first time since 2021 for yard debut
4 (6)	Just Janet Bay J:Daniel Tudhope T:David O'Meara	J:Daniel Tudhope T:David O'Meara	134	v	657258	68	80	61	13d	—	—	+1	9.4	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Has developed habit of started slowly but has claims if judged on Lingfield October form
7 (12)	Big R Bay J:Charles Bishop T:Eve Johnson Houghton	J:Charles Bishop T:Eve Johnson Houghton	132	—	-42648	66	81	-	131d	—	—	0	7.6	3.25/1	14 7%
Good fourth when upped to 7f at Newbury in June; absent since lesser effort in July
1 (7)	Selby's Pride Grey J:Cam Hardie T:Tony Coyle	J:Cam Hardie T:Tony Coyle	134	p	623254	68	83	59	13d	—	—	+6	10.1	4.75/1	20 5%
Consistent over 6f in recent months and also ran well over C&D a fortnight ago
10 (1)	Royal Bliss Bay J:Kieran Shoemark T:Amy Murphy	J:Kieran Shoemark T:Amy Murphy	132	h	827181	66	81	67	41d	—	—	+17	21.2	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Has won two of her last three races and is a player if suited by this switch to Tapeta
6 (10)	Sycamore Bay J:Dale Swift T:Scott Dixon	J:Dale Swift T:Scott Dixon	132	—	002-09	66	79	39	13d	—	—	+2	4.9	8.00/1	33 3%
Suited by this C&D but has quite a bit to prove at present
8 (3)	Vondelpark Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Sara Ender	J:Joanna Mason T:Sara Ender	132	—	717003	66	82	-	37d	—	—	+6	10	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Ran well well on heavy turf in October but is unraced on an AW surface; others preferred
12 (4)	Kath's Toyboy Grey J:Lewis Edmunds T:Kevin Frost	J:Lewis Edmunds T:Kevin Frost	130	b	312030	64	79	76	157d	—	—	+7	9.9	9.75/1	40 3%
Not seen since July and still 5lb higher than for hard-fought C&D win in April

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Haworth Star	2	2	2	15/8	9/4
Rocket Rod	6	11/2	11/2	11/2	11/2
Keep Me Stable	7	13/2	13/2	6	13/2
Soames Forsyte	7	13/2	11/2	13/2	7
At Liberty	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2
Just Janet	8	17/2	17/2	8	17/2
Big R	14	12	11	12	12
Selby's Pride	20	18	18	18	18
Royal Bliss	16	20	18	18	22/1
Sycamore	33	25	22	25	28
Vondelpark	25	25	20	25	28/1
Kath's Toyboy	40	33	33	25	33

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Keep Me Stable

24.6

OR: 4.5 Form: 17 Odds: 3.1

13/2

2nd

Royal Bliss

21.2

OR: 4 Form: 16 Odds: 1.2

22/1

3rd

Haworth Star

19.3

OR: 3.8 Form: 7.1 Odds: 8.4

9/4

Rocket Rod

12.6

OR: 4.3 Form: 5 Odds: 3.3

11/2

Soames Forsyte

10.9

OR: 4 Form: 3.6 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Selby's Pride

10.1

OR: 4.5 Form: 4.4 Odds: 1.2

Vondelpark

OR: 4 Form: 5 Odds: 1

28/1

Kath's Toyboy

9.9

OR: 3.5 Form: 5.6 Odds: 0.8

Just Janet

9.4

OR: 4.5 Form: 2.5 Odds: 2.4

17/2

Big R

7.6

OR: 4 Form: 1.5 Odds: 2.1

At Liberty

7.2

OR: 4.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.7

15/2

Sycamore

4.9

OR: 4 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Keep Me Stable	68	84	51
At Liberty	68	79	57
Just Janet	68	80	61
Selby's Pride	68	83	59
Rocket Rod	67	85	51
Soames Forsyte	66	83	50
Big R	66	81	—
Royal Bliss	66	81	67
Sycamore	66	79	39
Vondelpark	66	82	—
Haworth Star	65	84	75
Kath's Toyboy	64	79	76

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Just Janet	13d ago	Quick return
Selby's Pride	13d ago	Quick return
Sycamore	13d ago	Quick return
Keep Me Stable	18d ago	Fit
Rocket Rod	23d ago	Fit
Haworth Star	27d ago	Fit
Soames Forsyte	35d ago	Fit
Vondelpark	37d ago	Fit
Royal Bliss	41d ago	Fit
At Liberty	61d ago	Fresh
Big R	131d ago	Long break
Kath's Toyboy	157d ago	Long break