Win £2,000,000 With BetMGM's Golden Goals Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

15:45

Win £2,000,000 With BetMGM's Golden Goals Handicap

Date 2023-12-08

Distance 1m5y

Class Class 4

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £5,129

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
9 (10)	Open Choice Chestnut J:P J McDonald T:Edward Bethell	J:P J McDonald T:Edward Bethell	131	b	4348	72	83	37	133d	—	—	-5	12	0.75/1	4 25%
Gelded before handicap debut at Ascot (1m4f) in July when he raced freely and tailed off
7 (11)	Star Shield Chestnut J:Daniel Tudhope T:David O'Meara	J:Daniel Tudhope T:David O'Meara	132	p	540862	72	88	44	35d	—	—	-1	15.2	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Dual C&D winner who comes from off pace; beat all except Hortzadar over C&D last time
6 (7)	Trais Fluors b/br J:Tommie Jakes(7) T:Linda Perratt	J:Tommie Jakes(7) T:Linda Perratt	133	—	777321	73	91	76	24d	—	—	+11	24.8	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Made a winning start for new connections when scraping home over C&D on latest outing
1 (9)	Hortzadar Bay J:Mark Winn(3) T:David O'Meara	J:Mark Winn(3) T:David O'Meara	138	p	601201	78	89	17	35d	—	—	+16	25.2	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Way down the weights and capitalised twice this autumn, over C&D latest on AW debut
11 (6)	Vindobala Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Sam England	J:Joanna Mason T:Sam England	131	t	3R941R	71	89	60	35d	—	—	+3	13.3	1.88/1	15/2 12%
C&D win on penultimate appearance but refused to race three times this year, here latest
5 (8)	Million Thanks Chestnut J:Morgan Cole(5) T:Rebecca Menzies	J:Morgan Cole(5) T:Rebecca Menzies	133	t	270089	73	86	58	35d	—	—	0	8.1	2.50/1	10/1 9%
New trainer for last two outings, without making an impact; has another career-low mark
10 (12)	Showmedemoney Bay J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	131	tp	061033	71	85	16	35d	—	—	+8	15.5	2.50/1	11 9%
Close third to Hortzadar and Star Shield over C&D latest but he's not the most reliable
8 (2)	Khathak Brown J:David Nolan T:Richard Fahey	J:David Nolan T:Richard Fahey	131	tv	783025	71	81	70	13d	—	—	+5	11.6	2.75/1	12 8%
No win since his debut and disappointing in the main
3 (5)	Alexander James Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Michael Herrington	J:Tom Eaves T:Michael Herrington	137	p	316798	77	82	58	14d	—	—	+6	10	4.25/1	18 6%
Has not made a sufficient impact in recent starts to be fancied at the moment
2 (3)	Crownthorpe Bay J:Archie Young(7) T:Alan Brown	J:Archie Young(7) T:Alan Brown	138	p	411520	78	85	64	31d	—	—	+13	16.3	7.00/1	28/1 3%
First run since April when behind at 33-1 one month ago; did very well early in the year
12 (1)	Flag Flying Bay J:Laura Pearson T:David Loughnane	J:Laura Pearson T:David Loughnane	129	het	-00689	70	81	59	13d	—	—	+3	5.7	8.00/1	33 3%
Continues down the weights and now moves up from 6f, with a hood added
4 (4)	Dragons Will Rise Bay J:Aiden Brookes(5) T:Micky Hammond	J:Aiden Brookes(5) T:Micky Hammond	137	—	31537-	77	-	-	512d	—	—	+11	12.9	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Good record here; ran mainly over middle distances in 2022 and absent for 512 days

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Open Choice	4	4	4	4	4
Star Shield	4	4	4/1	4	4
Trais Fluors	5	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2
Hortzadar	7	7	7/1	7	7
Vindobala	15/2	7	7/1	7	7
Million Thanks	8	9	10/1	10/1	10/1
Showmedemoney	10	10	11	11	11
Khathak	11	12	12	12	12
Alexander James	16	18	18	18	18
Crownthorpe	25	28	28/1	28	25
Flag Flying	33	33	33	33	33
Dragons Will Rise	50	50	50/1	50	50

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Hortzadar

25.2

OR: 7 Form: 15.5 Odds: 2.7

7/1

2nd

Trais Fluors

24.8

OR: 5.8 Form: 15 Odds: 4

9/2

3rd

Crownthorpe

16.3

OR: 7 Form: 8.5 Odds: 0.8

28/1

Showmedemoney

15.5

OR: 5.3 Form: 8.1 Odds: 2.1

Star Shield

15.2

OR: 5.5 Form: 5 Odds: 4.7

4/1

Vindobala

13.3

OR: 5.3 Form: 5.2 Odds: 2.9

15/2

Dragons Will Rise

12.9

OR: 6.8 Form: 5.7 Odds: 0.5

50/1

Open Choice

OR: 5.5 Form: 1.5 Odds: 5

Khathak

11.6

OR: 5.3 Form: 4.4 Odds: 1.9

Alexander James

OR: 6.8 Form: 2 Odds: 1.2

Million Thanks

8.1

OR: 5.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

10/1

Flag Flying

5.7

OR: 5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Hortzadar	78	89	17
Crownthorpe	78	85	64
Alexander James	77	82	58
Dragons Will Rise	77	—	—
Trais Fluors	73	91	76
Million Thanks	73	86	58
Open Choice	72	83	37
Star Shield	72	88	44
Vindobala	71	89	60
Showmedemoney	71	85	16
Khathak	71	81	70
Flag Flying	70	81	59

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Khathak	13d ago	Quick return
Flag Flying	13d ago	Quick return
Alexander James	14d ago	Fit
Trais Fluors	24d ago	Fit
Crownthorpe	31d ago	Fit
Star Shield	35d ago	Fit
Hortzadar	35d ago	Fit
Vindobala	35d ago	Fit
Million Thanks	35d ago	Fit
Showmedemoney	35d ago	Fit
Open Choice	133d ago	Long break
Dragons Will Rise	512d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 1m5y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 4 draws with historical results at this course and distance.