BetUK. It's Where The UK Bets Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

18:45

BetUK. It's Where The UK Bets Handicap

Date 2023-12-08

Distance 5f

Class Class 5

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,873

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
12 (10)	The Caltonian Bay J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Linda Perratt	J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Linda Perratt	127	b	507112	67	90	77	43d	—	—	+6	27.9	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Good form over 7f on Tapeta lately, but not sure how he will respond to this return to 5f
4 (6)	Night On Earth Bay J:David Egan T:Ian Williams	J:David Egan T:Ian Williams	132	—	060653	72	86	55	17d	—	—	-5	14.2	0.83/1	10/3 23%
C&D winner who drops into a Class 5 handicap for the first time; high on list
1 (3)	Treacherous Bay J:Liam Wright(7) T:Ed de Giles	J:Liam Wright(7) T:Ed de Giles	135	—	592434	75	89	74	21d	—	—	+2	12.9	1.63/1	13/2 13%
In the frame over C&D the last twice; not seen down at 0-75 level very often these days
6 (2)	So Grateful Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	129	—	452635	69	87	60	14d	—	—	+2	10.9	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Successful in just one of his last 17 starts; still 4lb above his last winning mark
5 (5)	Zuffolo Bay J:Clifford Lee T:Michael Dods	J:Clifford Lee T:Michael Dods	132	—	778451	72	88	80	28d	—	—	+9	18	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Beating Leodis Dream by a neck over C&D last time; may still have more to offer on Tapeta
9 (8)	Pepsi Cat Bay J:Dougie Costello T:Steph Hollinshead	J:Dougie Costello T:Steph Hollinshead	128	t	512222	68	89	72	20d	—	—	+12	21.9	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Runner-up in all four starts since winning at Bath in August; should go well again
10 (9)	Wasdale Bay J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Julie Camacho	J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Julie Camacho	128	—	-12867	68	83	67	97d	—	—	+2	10.2	2.25/1	10 10%
Out of the frame in four outings on turf, but record on Tapeta reads 711512; interesting
7 (12)	Leodis Dream Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Paul Midgley	J:Cam Hardie T:Paul Midgley	128	—	517526	68	88	80	14d	—	—	+6	11.4	4.75/1	20 5%
Closely matched with Zuffalo on their meeting over C&D last month, but held last time
2 (11)	Ballyare Bay J:Shane Gray T:Lucinda Russell	J:Shane Gray T:Lucinda Russell	134	tp	300196	74	87	-	144d	—	—	+8	12	6.00/1	25 4%
Dual C&D winner, but may be better over further than this these days and off five months
8 (1)	Whisky McGonagall Bay J:James Sullivan T:Tim Easterby	J:James Sullivan T:Tim Easterby	128	—	84-41	68	86	-	217d	—	—	+2	5.6	5.25/1	22 5%
Makes his handicap/AW debut after seven months off; market may be revealing
3 (7)	New Hope Bullet Bay J:Kieran O'Neill T:Alice Haynes	J:Kieran O'Neill T:Alice Haynes	133	hp	254-98	73	83	43	37d	—	—	+4	6.3	16.25/1	66 2%
Three wins last year, but little in two starts since returning; new headgear combination
11 (4)	Captain's Bar Bay J:Elisha Whittington(5) T:Scott Dixon	J:Elisha Whittington(5) T:Scott Dixon	128	b	9-0190	68	88	69	14d	—	—	+3	5	16.25/1	66 2%
Successful over C&D in October, but twice held since; look elsewhere

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
The Caltonian	11/4	11/4	5/2	11/4	5/2
Night On Earth	10/3	10/3	10/3	10/3	10/3
Treacherous	7	13/2	13/2	13/2	7
So Grateful	9	8	17/2	17/2	17/2
Zuffolo	8	8	15/2	8	17/2
Pepsi Cat	8	17/2	8	17/2	8
Wasdale	10	10	10	10	10
Leodis Dream	20	18	14	18	18
Ballyare	25	25	25	25	25
Whisky McGonagall	18	22	22	22	22
New Hope Bullet	66	50	50	50	50
Captain's Bar	66	50	50	50	50

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

The Caltonian

27.9

OR: 4.3 Form: 17 Odds: 6.7

11/4

2nd

Pepsi Cat

21.9

OR: 4.5 Form: 14.5 Odds: 2.9

17/2

3rd

Zuffolo

OR: 5.5 Form: 10 Odds: 2.5

17/2

Night On Earth

14.2

OR: 5.5 Form: 3 Odds: 5.7

10/3

Treacherous

12.9

OR: 6.3 Form: 3.6 Odds: 3.1

13/2

Ballyare

OR: 6 Form: 5 Odds: 1

Leodis Dream

11.4

OR: 4.5 Form: 5.5 Odds: 1.4

So Grateful

10.9

OR: 4.8 Form: 3.6 Odds: 2.5

17/2

Wasdale

10.2

OR: 4.5 Form: 3.5 Odds: 2.2

New Hope Bullet

6.3

OR: 5.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

Whisky McGonagall

5.6

OR: 4.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

Captain's Bar

OR: 4.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Treacherous	75	89	74
Ballyare	74	87	—
New Hope Bullet	73	83	43
Night On Earth	72	86	55
Zuffolo	72	88	80
So Grateful	69	87	60
Pepsi Cat	68	89	72
Wasdale	68	83	67
Leodis Dream	68	88	80
Whisky McGonagall	68	86	—
Captain's Bar	68	88	69
The Caltonian	67	90	77

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
So Grateful	14d ago	Fit
Leodis Dream	14d ago	Fit
Captain's Bar	14d ago	Fit
Night On Earth	17d ago	Fit
Pepsi Cat	20d ago	Fit
Treacherous	21d ago	Fit
Zuffolo	28d ago	Fit
New Hope Bullet	37d ago	Fit
The Caltonian	43d ago	Fit
Wasdale	97d ago	Long break
Ballyare	144d ago	Long break
Whisky McGonagall	217d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 5f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 6 draws with historical results at this course and distance.