Best Racing Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

17:45

Best Racing Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap

Date 2023-12-08

Distance 1m5y

Class Class 6

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,140

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
3 (9)	Mercurius Power Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:Jessica Macey	J:Lewis Edmunds T:Jessica Macey	133	tp	859543	57	74	41	21d	—	—	-10	10.9	0.50/1	3 33%
Has run well over 1m2f here the last twice and the return to 1m shouldn't be an issue
5 (10)	Panama City Bay J:Harry Burns(3) T:Ian McInnes	J:Harry Burns(3) T:Ian McInnes	133	t	734801	57	73	58	31d	—	—	0	17.4	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Beat a warm favourite over C&D last month; may still have more to offer on this surface
1 (4)	Spirit Of Bowland Bay J:Brandon Wilkie(5) T:Stella Barclay	J:Brandon Wilkie(5) T:Stella Barclay	134	—	117336	58	71	58	28d	0W/0P 1 run	0W/1P 2 runs	-5	12.6	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Bit below form four weeks ago and remains 6lb above last winning mark; needs a bit more
12 (1)	Pallas Lord Bay J:P J McDonald T:Donald Whillans	J:P J McDonald T:Donald Whillans	130	—	205877	54	76	38	35d	—	—	-5	3.4	2.13/1	17/2 11%
C&D winner who is well handicapped on his form here in the spring; not dismissed
9 (6)	Ice Shadow Bay J:Paula Muir(3) T:Alan Brown	J:Paula Muir(3) T:Alan Brown	131	b	580185	55	72	51	19d	—	—	+1	8.4	2.25/1	10 10%
Won by a head over C&D in October; not beaten far last time; could make his presence felt
11 (8)	Odd Socks Havana Bay J:Morgan Cole(5) T:Rebecca Menzies	J:Morgan Cole(5) T:Rebecca Menzies	130	tp	122248	54	71	54	186d	—	—	+1	7.9	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Triple C&D winner and fairly handicpped; needs to prove his fitness after six months off
4 (7)	Brazen Rascal Bay J:Phil Dennis T:Simon Whitaker	J:Phil Dennis T:Simon Whitaker	133	—	8054	58	70	40	24d	—	—	-3	3.7	3.25/1	14 7%
Ran well on handicap debut here last time; extra furlong shouldn't be an issue; respected
8 (11)	Reclaim Victory Bay J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	131	p	F83423	55	70	51	132d	—	—	+4	10.3	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Not the easiest to win with, but has run consistently well on the AW over the past year
6 (12)	Highland Loch Bay J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	133	—	678	58	60	7	36d	—	—	-1	3.2	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Well beaten in three starts over 1m-1m2f here this autumn; major improvement needed
2 (2)	Possible Ambition Bay J:Dale Swift T:John Quinn	J:Dale Swift T:John Quinn	134	b	-43539	58	72	50	19d	—	—	+2	6.1	6.00/1	25 4%
C&D winner, but something to prove after a poor effort over 7f here last time
7 (3)	Reflex Grey J:Ben Sanderson(3) T:Kevin Frost	J:Ben Sanderson(3) T:Kevin Frost	132	—	502368	57	71	62	67d	—	—	+2	5.8	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Back in trip on stable debut and worth a market check
10 (5)	Rogue Force Bay J:Andrew Breslin(3) T:R Mike Smith	J:Andrew Breslin(3) T:R Mike Smith	131	—	939369	55	66	26	35d	—	—	0	4.6	6.00/1	25 4%
All three wins on Polytrack for previous yard; still to prove he can act on Tapeta

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Mercurius Power	3	3	3	3	3
Panama City	9/2	9/2	7/2	9/2	4
Spirit Of Bowland	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2
Pallas Lord	9	8	17/2	17/2	17/2
Ice Shadow	9	10	9	10	10
Odd Socks Havana	14/1	12	10	12	12
Brazen Rascal	14	12	11	12	14
Reclaim Victory	16/1	12	12	14	12
Highland Loch	22/1	18	18	18	18
Possible Ambition	25	22	20	22	22
Reflex	28/1	22	22/1	22/1	25
Rogue Force	16	25	25	25	25

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Panama City

17.4

OR: 1.8 Form: 10.6 Odds: 5

9/2

2nd

Spirit Of Bowland

12.6

OR: 2 Form: 5.6 Odds: 5

9/2

3rd

Mercurius Power

10.9

OR: 1.8 Form: 3 Odds: 6.2

Reclaim Victory

10.3

OR: 1.3 Form: 7.4 Odds: 1.6

16/1

Ice Shadow

8.4

OR: 1.3 Form: 5 Odds: 2.1

Odd Socks Havana

7.9

OR: 1 Form: 5 Odds: 1.9

14/1

Possible Ambition

6.1

OR: 2 Form: 3 Odds: 1.1

Reflex

5.8

OR: 1.8 Form: 3 Odds: 1.1

28/1

Rogue Force

4.6

OR: 1.3 Form: 2.1 Odds: 1.2

Brazen Rascal

3.7

OR: 2 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

Pallas Lord

3.4

OR: 1 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

17/2

Highland Loch

3.2

OR: 2 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

22/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Spirit Of Bowland	58	71	58
Brazen Rascal	58	70	40
Highland Loch	58	60	7
Possible Ambition	58	72	50
Mercurius Power	57	74	41
Panama City	57	73	58
Reflex	57	71	62
Ice Shadow	55	72	51
Reclaim Victory	55	70	51
Rogue Force	55	66	26
Pallas Lord	54	76	38
Odd Socks Havana	54	71	54

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Ice Shadow	19d ago	Fit
Possible Ambition	19d ago	Fit
Mercurius Power	21d ago	Fit
Brazen Rascal	24d ago	Fit
Spirit Of Bowland	28d ago	Fit
Panama City	31d ago	Fit
Pallas Lord	35d ago	Fit
Rogue Force	35d ago	Fit
Highland Loch	36d ago	Fit
Reflex	67d ago	Fresh
Reclaim Victory	132d ago	Long break
Odd Socks Havana	186d ago	Long break

Pace Profile

Horse	Running Style
Spirit Of Bowland	Hold Up
Reclaim Victory	Hold Up

Inferred from horse comments. 2 of 12 runners classified.

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 1m5y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 4 draws with historical results at this course and distance.