Wincanton Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) – Wincanton

Wincanton

12:45

Wincanton Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)

Date 2023-12-12

Distance 1m7f50y

Class Class 4

Going Heavy

Type Hurdle

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £3,812

Runners (17)

EW Terms: 4 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
2	Lump Sum Bay J:Sam Twiston-Davies T:Sam Thomas	J:Sam Twiston-Davies T:Sam Thomas	161	—	13-1	-	127	118	20d	—	—	-37	30	0.06/1	1/4 80%
Didn't always jump with fluency on h'dle debut at Ffos Las but won easily; the one to beat
10	Onethreefivenotout Bay J:Bryony Frost T:Paul Nicholls	J:Bryony Frost T:Paul Nicholls	154	—	1/P	-	-	-	42d	—	—	-5	9.5	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Bumper winner; pulled up on return from long absence but may leave that miles behind
9	Mountain Pass Grey J:Paul O'Brien T:Harry Derham	J:Paul O'Brien T:Harry Derham	154	—	555	-	110	88	11d	—	—	-6	2.1	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Fair fifth on first two hurdle starts; towards the top of the pecking order in this field
4	Banteer Bay J:Angus Cheleda(5) T:Paul Nicholls	J:Angus Cheleda(5) T:Paul Nicholls	154	—	25-5	-	104	55	36d	—	—	-6	2.1	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Promising second on bumper debut; well beaten twice since but could get back on track
1	Afta Party Grey J:Theo Gillard T:Mark Gillard	J:Theo Gillard T:Mark Gillard	161	tp	-74317	105	113	82	22d	—	—	+20	23	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Flopped last time but 50-1 winner previously; not written off in a race lacking depth
11	Plaisir Des Flos Chestnut J:Paddy Brennan T:Fergal O'Brien	J:Paddy Brennan T:Fergal O'Brien	154	—	5-4658	-	88	47	11d	—	—	-2	0.8	25.00/1	100/1 1%
Not devoid of ability in bumpers but well beaten on first two hurdle starts
16	Lady Balko Bay J:Jack Tudor T:David Pipe	J:Jack Tudor T:David Pipe	147	—	1-65	-	96	61	12d	—	—	+6	7.4	20.00/1	80/1 1%
Point winner; things could click under rules at some point, but needs big step forward
17	Theweddingcanwait Bay J:Tom Bellamy T:Syd Hosie	J:Tom Bellamy T:Syd Hosie	147	ht	-623P9	-	85	41	44d	—	—	+1	2.2	37.50/1	150/1 1%
Placed in bumpers but unable to transfer that ability to her two attempts over hurdles
8	Loverdose Chestnut J:Harry Kimber(3) T:Robert Walford	J:Harry Kimber(3) T:Robert Walford	154	h	9	-	65	-	12d	—	—	-1	0.2	62.50/1	250/1 0%
French Flat winner who was tailed off on recent hurdle debut when back from long absence
15	Cams Girl Chestnut J:Toby Wynne(3) T:Robbie Llewellyn	J:Toby Wynne(3) T:Robbie Llewellyn	147	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.2	37.50/1	150/1 1%
£2,000 3yo; from in-form yard and worth a market check on debut in a race lacking depth
12	Renegade Arrow Chestnut J:Jack Hogan(3) T:Neil Mulholland	J:Jack Hogan(3) T:Neil Mulholland	154	—	31/05	-	88	25	18d	—	—	-1	0.2	37.50/1	150/1 1%
Bumper winner but down the field on first two hurdle starts, following long absence
3	Aworkinprogress Bay J:James Davies T:Nick Gifford	J:James Davies T:Nick Gifford	154	—	64-5	-	87	35	21d	—	—	-1	0.2	37.50/1	150/1 1%
Well beaten at 25-1 on last month's rules debut in Lingfield novice hurdle
5	Benville Bridge Bay J:James Best T:Fiona Shaw	J:James Best T:Fiona Shaw	154	—	6/	-	-	-	642d	—	—	-1	0.2	37.50/1	150/1 1%
Absent since midfield finish in bumper here in March 2022; probably best watched
6	Hobbs Joy Bay J:Bryan Carver T:Neil Mulholland	J:Bryan Carver T:Neil Mulholland	154	—	43-889	-	80	-	26d	—	—	-1	0.3	62.50/1	250/1 0%
Showed ability in Catterick bumper but has struggled on his three hurdle starts
13	Solstice Saint Bay J:Ben Godfrey(3) T:Anthony Honeyball	J:Ben Godfrey(3) T:Anthony Honeyball	154	—	500	-	71	20	12d	—	—	-1	0.2	100.00/1	400/1 0%
Tailed off at 150-1 on recent hurdle debut at Taunton
NR	Hour Star Chestnut J:Brendan Powell T:Joe Tizzard	J:Brendan Powell T:Joe Tizzard	154	h	29-57	-	93	59	31d	—	—	—	0	—	—
First-time hood could help this freegoing sort settle better but he has plenty to prove
NR	Time Theft Bay J:NON-RUNNER T:Neil Mulholland	J:NON-RUNNER T:Neil Mulholland	154	—	2/P	-	-	-	38d	—	—	—	2	—	—
Pulled up at 66-1 on sole rules start and others are preferred

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Lump Sum	1/4	1/5	2/11	2/9	1/4
Onethreefivenotout	9/2	11/2	5/1	5/1	11/2
Mountain Pass	9/1	10/1	10/1	11/1	11/1
Banteer	9/1	10/1	10/1	11/1	10/1
Afta Party	40/1	25/1	25/1	25/1	25/1
Plaisir Des Flos	100/1	28/1	28/1	28/1	28/1
Lady Balko	50/1	66/1	66/1	66/1	80/1
Theweddingcanwait	150/1	100/1	100/1	100/1	100/1
Loverdose	250/1	80/1	80/1	80/1	100/1
Cams Girl	150/1	125/1	125/1	125/1	125/1
Renegade Arrow	150/1	125/1	125/1	125/1	125/1
Aworkinprogress	150/1	100/1	100/1	100/1	100/1
Benville Bridge	150/1	150/1	125/1	150/1	150/1
Hobbs Joy	66/1	250/1	200/1	250/1	250/1
Solstice Saint	400/1	200/1	200/1	200/1	200/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Lump Sum

OR: 0 Form: 10 Odds: 20

1/4

2nd

Afta Party

OR: 13.8 Form: 8.5 Odds: 0.8

40/1

3rd

Onethreefivenotout

9.5

OR: 0 Form: 5.5 Odds: 4

11/2

Lady Balko

7.4

OR: 0 Form: 7 Odds: 0.4

80/1

Theweddingcanwait

2.2

OR: 0 Form: 2 Odds: 0.2

150/1

Mountain Pass

2.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

11/1

Banteer

2.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

11/1

Time Theft

OR: 0 Form: 2 Odds: 0

—

Plaisir Des Flos

0.8

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

100/1

Hobbs Joy

0.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

250/1

Loverdose

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

250/1

Cams Girl

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

150/1

Renegade Arrow

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

150/1

Aworkinprogress

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

150/1

Benville Bridge

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

150/1

Solstice Saint

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

400/1

Hour Star

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Afta Party	105	113	82
Lump Sum	—	127	118
Onethreefivenotout	—	—	—
Mountain Pass	—	110	88
Banteer	—	104	55
Plaisir Des Flos	—	88	47
Lady Balko	—	96	61
Theweddingcanwait	—	85	41
Loverdose	—	65	—
Cams Girl	—	—	—
Renegade Arrow	—	88	25
Aworkinprogress	—	87	35
Benville Bridge	—	—	—
Hobbs Joy	—	80	—
Solstice Saint	—	71	20
Hour Star	—	93	59
Time Theft	—	—	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Mountain Pass	11d ago	Quick return
Plaisir Des Flos	11d ago	Quick return
Lady Balko	12d ago	Quick return
Loverdose	12d ago	Quick return
Solstice Saint	12d ago	Quick return
Renegade Arrow	18d ago	Fit
Lump Sum	20d ago	Fit
Aworkinprogress	21d ago	Fit
Afta Party	22d ago	Fit
Hobbs Joy	26d ago	Fit
Hour Star	31d ago	Fit
Banteer	36d ago	Fit
Time Theft	38d ago	Fit
Onethreefivenotout	42d ago	Fit
Theweddingcanwait	44d ago	Fit
Benville Bridge	642d ago	Long break
Cams Girl	—	—

Pace Profile

Horse	Running Style
Benville Bridge	Mid-Pack
Solstice Saint	Mid-Pack

Inferred from horse comments. 2 of 17 runners classified.