Boost Your Acca-Fenwa With BetUK Handicap (Div II) – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

16:45

Boost Your Acca-Fenwa With BetUK Handicap (Div II)

Date 2023-12-16

Distance 5f

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,140

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
3 (8)	High Opinion Bay J:Clifford Lee T:Bryan Smart	J:Clifford Lee T:Bryan Smart	135	—	454771	60	74	55	32d	—	—	-7	20.9	0.56/1	9/4 31%
Won with something to spare over C&D last month; remains unexposed on AW; highly respected
1 (2)	Rory Chestnut J:Mark Winn(3) T:Jim Goldie	J:Mark Winn(3) T:Jim Goldie	138	p	279841	63	76	57	7d	—	—	-4	20.5	0.75/1	3/1 25%
Scored over 6f here last Saturday; C&D winner off 1lb higher in 2022; likely player
7 (1)	Henery Hawk Bay J:Tommie Jakes(7) T:Linda Perratt	J:Tommie Jakes(7) T:Linda Perratt	129	—	081126	54	75	59	22d	—	—	+5	15.4	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Successful twice over 5f in October; may have more to offer back at this distance
10 (6)	King Of The Jungle Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	124	—	783840	49	71	57	38d	—	—	-6	3.6	2.00/1	8/1 11%
3yo maiden; made the frame on two occasions but is inconsistent
9 (3)	One Last Hug Bay J:David Egan T:Jim Goldie	J:David Egan T:Jim Goldie	126	—	066546	51	73	58	32d	—	—	-5	2.2	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Running respectably at this course since returned to AW; yet to win away from Ayr
4 (12)	Glorious Rio Bay J:Brandon Wilkie(5) T:Stella Barclay	J:Brandon Wilkie(5) T:Stella Barclay	133	—	84D2360	58	72	56	83d	—	—	0	6.7	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Removal of headgear isn't sure to help; all wins in his usual blinkers
8 (5)	Sherdil Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Paul Midgley	J:Cam Hardie T:Paul Midgley	128	p	583725	53	72	46	11d	—	—	+1	6.8	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Mixed results since returned to AW but the pick of that form gives him place claims
11 (10)	Rockley Point Bay J:William Pyle(5) T:Katie Scott	J:William Pyle(5) T:Katie Scott	123	b	273004	48	73	70	6d	—	—	-3	2.5	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Long time since he won a handicap; both wins this year came at classified level
2 (11)	Imperiousity Chestnut J:Jason Hart T:Ian McInnes	J:Jason Hart T:Ian McInnes	135	—	4213RR	60	70	-	72d	—	—	+2	6.8	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Refused to race the last twice; comes with major risk on debut for new yard
12 (9)	Birdie Bowers Bay J:Shane Gray T:David Thompson	J:Shane Gray T:David Thompson	122	b	270278	47	73	34	78d	—	—	0	3.5	8.25/1	33/1 3%
0-14 this year; chance depends on how well he responds to first-time headgear
6 (7)	Dapper Man Bay J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	132	—	216590	57	71	46	22d	—	—	+1	4.7	8.25/1	33/1 3%
All 16 wins in headgear, which is again missing; opposed
NR (4)	Aconcagua Mountain Bay J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	133	b	214665	58	71	56	24d	—	—	—	4	—	—
Shaped okay at Wolverhampton most recently; back on a competitive mark

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
High Opinion	9/4	9/4	9/4	9/4	9/4
Rory	3/1	11/4	3/1	11/4	11/4
Henery Hawk	15/2	7/1	7/1	15/2	7/1
King Of The Jungle	8/1	15/2	8/1	7/1	15/2
One Last Hug	11/1	11/1	10/1	11/1	10/1
Glorious Rio	14/1	12/1	12/1	11/1	12/1
Sherdil	14/1	14/1	14/1	12/1	14/1
Rockley Point	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	12/1
Imperiousity	16/1	20/1	20/1	16/1	18/1
Birdie Bowers	33/1	22/1	22/1	20/1	22/1
Dapper Man	28/1	28/1	33/1	28/1	20/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

High Opinion

20.9

OR: 2.5 Form: 10 Odds: 8.4

9/4

2nd

Rory

20.5

OR: 3.3 Form: 10 Odds: 7.3

3/1

3rd

Henery Hawk

15.4

OR: 1 Form: 11.5 Odds: 2.9

15/2

Sherdil

6.8

OR: 0.8 Form: 4.4 Odds: 1.6

14/1

Imperiousity

6.8

OR: 2.5 Form: 3 Odds: 1.4

20/1

Glorious Rio

6.7

OR: 2 Form: 3 Odds: 1.7

14/1

Dapper Man

4.7

OR: 1.8 Form: 2 Odds: 1

33/1

Aconcagua Mountain

OR: 2 Form: 2 Odds: 0

—

King Of The Jungle

3.6

OR: 0 Form: 0.9 Odds: 2.7

8/1

Birdie Bowers

3.5

OR: 0 Form: 2.5 Odds: 1

33/1

Rockley Point

2.5

OR: 0 Form: 0.9 Odds: 1.6

14/1

One Last Hug

2.2

OR: 0.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

11/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Rory	63	76	57
High Opinion	60	74	55
Imperiousity	60	70	—
Glorious Rio	58	72	56
Aconcagua Mountain	58	71	56
Dapper Man	57	71	46
Henery Hawk	54	75	59
Sherdil	53	72	46
One Last Hug	51	73	58
King Of The Jungle	49	71	57
Rockley Point	48	73	70
Birdie Bowers	47	73	34

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Rockley Point	6d ago	Quick return
Rory	7d ago	Quick return
Sherdil	11d ago	Quick return
Henery Hawk	22d ago	Fit
Dapper Man	22d ago	Fit
Aconcagua Mountain	24d ago	Fit
High Opinion	32d ago	Fit
One Last Hug	32d ago	Fit
King Of The Jungle	38d ago	Fit
Imperiousity	72d ago	Fresh
Birdie Bowers	78d ago	Fresh
Glorious Rio	83d ago	Fresh

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 5f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 6 draws with historical results at this course and distance.