Happy Valley

11:10

Mercury Handicap (Class 3) (3yo+) (Course C) (Turf)

Date 2023-12-20
Distance 1m3f
Class
Going Good
Type Flat
Surface Turf
Age Band 3yo+
Prize £122,258

Runners (8)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)
# Silk Horse Jockey / Trainer Wt Gear Form OR RPR TS Last Crs Dst Val Scr EW Odds
1 (7)
Natural Storm
Bay
J:James McDonald
T:P F Yiu
J:James McDonald
T:P F Yiu
134 b 809430
77
108
-
31d
8.9
Excellent C&D record (three wins) but weighted to his very best which makes him vulnerable
2 (2)
Turin Mascot
Grey
J:Zac Purton
T:P C Ng
J:Zac Purton
T:P C Ng
132 t 531517
75
90
-
31d
16.9
Winner of both C&D runs; there is better to come from him back at his favourite track
3 (8)
Packing Hurricane
Bay
J:C Y Ho
T:C Fownes
J:C Y Ho
T:C Fownes
131 tb 146042
74
92
-
31d
11
Fourth in both C&D runs; three wins at Sha Tin (1m2f) and ahead of top two there last time
4 (3)
Escape Route
Bay
J:Andrea Atzeni
T:J Size
J:Andrea Atzeni
T:J Size
130 h 790294
73
94
-
21d
8.3
Inconsistent course winner who won over 1m2f in Sha Tin; well beaten only go at this trip
5 (5)
Majestic Victory
Bay
J:Angus Chung(5)
T:A S Cruz
J:Angus Chung(5)
T:A S Cruz
128 t 041628
71
93
-
21d
11.8
Front-runner with claims on best form but inconsistent; likely to set this up for others
6 (4)
Swan Bay
Bay
J:Karis Teetan
T:W Y So
J:Karis Teetan
T:W Y So
125 b 027337
68
93
-
10d
9.1
Two Sha Tin thirds to Ensued read well but disappointed last time; unplaced only run here
7 (1)
Gallant Hero
Bay
J:Alexis Badel
T:D J Hall
J:Alexis Badel
T:D J Hall
120 111916
63
89
-
21d
15.3
Snatched up at vital stage last time; triple winner here and successful on sole C&D run
8 (6)
Intrepid Winner
Bay
J:K De Melo
T:C W Chang
J:K De Melo
T:C W Chang
120 b 808325
63
101
-
31d
8.3
Goes well here; three placed efforts at 1m2f suggest he will stay; not easy to catch right

No odds data available.

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st Turin Mascot
16.9
OR: 6.3 Form: 10.6 Odds: 0
2nd Gallant Hero
15.3
OR: 3.3 Form: 12 Odds: 0
3rd Majestic Victory
11.8
OR: 5.3 Form: 6.5 Odds: 0
4 Packing Hurricane
11
OR: 6 Form: 5 Odds: 0
5 Swan Bay
9.1
OR: 4.5 Form: 4.6 Odds: 0
6 Natural Storm
8.9
OR: 6.8 Form: 2.1 Odds: 0
7 Escape Route
8.3
OR: 5.8 Form: 2.5 Odds: 0
8 Intrepid Winner
8.3
OR: 3.3 Form: 5 Odds: 0

Ratings

HorseORRPRTS
Natural Storm
77
108
Turin Mascot
75
90
Packing Hurricane
74
92
Escape Route
73
94
Majestic Victory
71
93
Swan Bay
68
93
Gallant Hero
63
89
Intrepid Winner
63
101

Last Run

HorseLast RunStatus
Swan Bay 10d ago Quick return
Escape Route 21d ago Fit
Majestic Victory 21d ago Fit
Gallant Hero 21d ago Fit
Natural Storm 31d ago Fit
Turin Mascot 31d ago Fit
Packing Hurricane 31d ago Fit
Intrepid Winner 31d ago Fit

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Happy Valley over 1m3f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Based on 12 draws with historical results at this course and distance.