bet365 "Junior" National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)

Newcastle

15:25

Date 2023-12-23

Distance 1m6f66y

Class Class 5

Going Good

Type NH Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo

Prize £2,614

Runners (14)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
5	Opera King Bay J:Mr Toby McCain-Mitchell(7) T:Nigel Twiston-Davies	J:Mr Toby McCain-Mitchell(7) T:Nigel Twiston-Davies	154	—	4	-	114	64	21d	—	—	-16	6.7	0.69/1	11/4 27%
The form of his fourth at Doncaster just about sets the standard here
6	She's Notjoeking Bay J:Conner McCann(7) T:Lucinda Russell	J:Conner McCann(7) T:Lucinda Russell	154	—	1	-	106	70	30d	—	—	-2	15	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Defied market weakness with a comfortable success here; the second has talent
7	Sycamore Gap Bay J:Nathan Moscrop T:Rebecca Menzies	J:Nathan Moscrop T:Rebecca Menzies	154	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-12	5	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Joined Godolphin for 200,000gns but never made the track; sold on for 21,000gns
3	Kabuki Bay J:Brian Hughes T:Donald McCain	J:Brian Hughes T:Donald McCain	154	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-7	2.7	2.00/1	8/1 11%
12,000euros 2yo; first foal of a half-sister to stable's useful jumper Dear Sire
2	Authorized Mission Bay J:Danny McMenamin T:Iain Jardine	J:Danny McMenamin T:Iain Jardine	154	t	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-6	2.4	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Third foal; dam point/2m4f-3m1f hurdle/chase winner; check the market
1	Aire Spray Bay J:Tom Midgley(3) T:Sue Smith	J:Tom Midgley(3) T:Sue Smith	154	—	4	-	84	45	30d	—	—	-5	1.9	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Has 23l to find with She's Notjoeking and it's asking a lot to make up that deficit
4	Knomorediamonds Bay J:Alan Doyle(5) T:Lucinda Russell	J:Alan Doyle(5) T:Lucinda Russell	154	—	O5	-	99	44	28d	—	—	-4	1.4	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Was more focused at Huntingdon but was beaten 13l and he'll need to improve on that
10	Gowan Pudsey Bay J:Henry Brooke T:Tjade Collier	J:Henry Brooke T:Tjade Collier	147	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-4	1.4	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Third foal; dam 2m hurdle winner, sister to bumper/2m1f hurdle winner Bobs Lord Tara
13	Rotarua Chestnut J:Billy Garritty T:Justin Landy	J:Billy Garritty T:Justin Landy	147	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-3	1.2	5.00/1	20/1 5%
3,500euros 3yo; seventh foal; half-sister to winning hurdler Western Rambler (2m)
12	Pennine Park Bay J:Craig Nichol T:Danny Brooke	J:Craig Nichol T:Danny Brooke	147	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-2	0.7	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Fourth foal; half-sister to winners Casa No Mento (bumper/point/2m hurdle)
14	Sweet Hortense Chestnut J:David Noonan T:Danny Brooke	J:David Noonan T:Danny Brooke	147	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-2	0.8	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Seventh foal; dam unplaced 1m-8.6f (RPR 44), half-sister to eight Flat winners
8	Triumphal Arch Bay J:Mr John Dawson(3) T:Paul Collins	J:Mr John Dawson(3) T:Paul Collins	154	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-2	0.6	16.50/1	66/1 1%
Flat-bred and initially fetched 82,000gns as a yearling; has since changed hands cheaply
11	Moveonbuy Bay J:William Maggs(7) T:Andrew Crook	J:William Maggs(7) T:Andrew Crook	147	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.4	25.00/1	100/1 1%
£4,000 3yo; eighth foal; half-sister to point winner Silent Warrior; dam unraced
9	Breadalbane Lass Bay J:Callum Bewley T:R Mike Smith	J:Callum Bewley T:R Mike Smith	147	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.4	37.50/1	150/1 1%
Newcomer; yard's bumper record of 0-37 in bumpers recent seasons reduces appeal

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Opera King	11/4	11/4	11/4	11/4	11/4
She's Notjoeking	4/1	7/2	4/1	7/2	7/2
Sycamore Gap	4/1	4/1	4/1	9/2	4/1
Kabuki	8/1	8/1	8/1	8/1	8/1
Authorized Mission	10/1	17/2	9/1	9/1	8/1
Aire Spray	11/1	11/1	11/1	11/1	11/1
Knomorediamonds	16/1	16/1	16/1	16/1	16/1
Gowan Pudsey	16/1	16/1	16/1	16/1	14/1
Rotarua	20/1	18/1	18/1	16/1	16/1
Pennine Park	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1	33/1
Sweet Hortense	33/1	28/1	25/1	25/1	25/1
Triumphal Arch	66/1	50/1	50/1	50/1	50/1
Moveonbuy	100/1	100/1	100/1	100/1	100/1
Breadalbane Lass	150/1	125/1	125/1	125/1	125/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

She's Notjoeking

OR: 0 Form: 10 Odds: 5

4/1

2nd

Opera King

6.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 6.7

11/4

3rd

Sycamore Gap

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 5

9/2

Kabuki

2.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.7

8/1

Authorized Mission

2.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

10/1

Aire Spray

1.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

11/1

Knomorediamonds

1.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

16/1

Gowan Pudsey

1.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

16/1

Rotarua

1.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

20/1

Sweet Hortense

0.8

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

33/1

Pennine Park

0.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

40/1

Triumphal Arch

0.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

66/1

Moveonbuy

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

100/1

Breadalbane Lass

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

150/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Opera King	—	114	64
She's Notjoeking	—	106	70
Sycamore Gap	—	—	—
Kabuki	—	—	—
Authorized Mission	—	—	—
Aire Spray	—	84	45
Knomorediamonds	—	99	44
Gowan Pudsey	—	—	—
Rotarua	—	—	—
Pennine Park	—	—	—
Sweet Hortense	—	—	—
Triumphal Arch	—	—	—
Moveonbuy	—	—	—
Breadalbane Lass	—	—	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Opera King	21d ago	Fit
Knomorediamonds	28d ago	Fit
She's Notjoeking	30d ago	Fit
Aire Spray	30d ago	Fit
Sycamore Gap	—	—
Kabuki	—	—
Authorized Mission	—	—
Gowan Pudsey	—	—
Rotarua	—	—
Pennine Park	—	—
Sweet Hortense	—	—
Triumphal Arch	—	—
Moveonbuy	—	—
Breadalbane Lass	—	—