Best Racing Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

16:45

Best Racing Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap

Date 2024-01-01

Distance 6f

Class Class 2

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo

Prize £24,300

Winning Time 1m 12.97s (slow by 2.57s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Blue Prince (IRE) Finley Marsh · David Evans	11/2	Won
2nd	Sommelier (GB) Marco Ghiani · Marco Botti	3/1	.5
3rd	Bazball (IRE) Hollie Doyle · K R Burke	14/1	1
4th	Harvanna (GB) Clifford Lee · K R Burke	16/1	0.3
5th	Neapolitan (FR) Harry Davies · Simon & Ed Crisford	7/1	1
6th	Loaded Gun (IRE) Duran Fentiman · Andrew Balding	25/1	0.3
7th	I'm Spartacus (IRE) Tyler Heard · Richard Fahey	33/1	.5
8th	Callianassa (IRE) Cam Hardie · Brian Ellison	100/1	.5
9th	Brave Empire (IRE) Jack Mitchell · Roger Varian	5/4F	.5
10th	G'Day Mate (GB) Alistair Rawlinson · Michael Appleby	33/1	0.3

Runners (10)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
2 (10)	Brave Empire Grey J:Jack Mitchell T:Roger Varian	J:Jack Mitchell T:Roger Varian	134	—	611-	95	105	-	191d	—	—	+2	40.8	0.34/1	11/8 42%
Impressed under a penalty at Redcar when last seen in June; absence a worry but promising
1 (2)	Sommelier Bay J:Marco Ghiani T:Marco Botti	J:Marco Ghiani T:Marco Botti	135	—	411-	96	100	89	42d	—	—	+14	34.7	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Fast-improving 3yo; bolted up in weak race latest; could well be more to come
6 (8)	Blue Prince Bay J:Finley Marsh T:David Evans	J:Finley Marsh T:David Evans	124	—	36481-	85	104	84	11d	—	—	+8	23.8	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Quickened smartly to win at Southwell 11 days ago (6f); 4lb higher but folly to discount
4 (5)	Neapolitan Bay J:Harry Davies T:Simon & Ed Crisford	J:Harry Davies T:Simon & Ed Crisford	127	t	61222-	88	103	87	14d	—	—	+17	26.2	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Progressive and conditions won't faze him but improvement will be needed to take this
5 (3)	Harvanna Bay J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	125	—	311-	86	103	-	173d	—	—	+23	29.4	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Progressive over 5f last summer; unexposed but her absence is a concern; betting useful
7 (1)	Bazball Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:K R Burke	J:Hollie Doyle T:K R Burke	117	v	16242-	78	103	92	26d	—	—	+12	18.1	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Consistent filly with three 5f wins to her name in 2023; good 2nd over 7f latest; chance
8 (7)	Loaded Gun Bay J:Duran Fentiman T:Andrew Balding	J:Duran Fentiman T:Andrew Balding	115	—	15943-	76	103	84	11d	—	—	+9	12.5	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Third behind Blue Prince last time & may not reverse placings despite the revised weights
3 (4)	G'Day Mate Bay J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Michael Appleby	J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Michael Appleby	132	—	2150-	93	95	-	128d	—	—	+16	17.8	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Not sure he's well treated ahead of his stable debut and has to prove himself over 6f
10 (9)	I'm Spartacus Chestnut J:Tyler Heard(3) T:Richard Fahey	J:Tyler Heard(3) T:Richard Fahey	114	—	71734-	75	99	82	26d	—	—	+10	11.9	10.00/1	40/1 2%
C&D winner in October; mixed bag since and this looks tough from out of the weights
9 (6)	Callianassa Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Brian Ellison	J:Cam Hardie T:Brian Ellison	114	—	53468-	75	103	90	11d	—	—	+6	7.5	31.25/1	125/1 1%
0-10 and behind a few of these last time; out of the handicap and opposable

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Brave Empire	11/8	11/8	5/4	5/4	11/8
Sommelier	3/1	10/3	10/3	3/1	10/3
Blue Prince	5/1	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2
Neapolitan	8/1	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2
Harvanna	12/1	11/1	14/1	11/1	11/1
Bazball	16/1	14/1	16/1	14/1	14/1
Loaded Gun	33/1	25/1	28/1	22/1	22/1
G'Day Mate	40/1	33/1	33/1	40/1	33/1
I'm Spartacus	40/1	33/1	40/1	33/1	33/1
Callianassa	66/1	80/1	125/1	80/1	80/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Brave Empire

40.8

OR: 11.3 Form: 17 Odds: 12.5

11/8

2nd

Sommelier

34.7

OR: 11.5 Form: 17 Odds: 6.2

10/3

3rd

Harvanna

29.4

OR: 9 Form: 18.5 Odds: 1.9

14/1

Neapolitan

26.2

OR: 9.5 Form: 14 Odds: 2.7

8/1

Blue Prince

23.8

OR: 8.8 Form: 10.6 Odds: 4.4

5/1

Bazball

18.1

OR: 7 Form: 9.5 Odds: 1.6

16/1

G'Day Mate

17.8

OR: 10.8 Form: 6.5 Odds: 0.6

40/1

Loaded Gun

12.5

OR: 6.5 Form: 5 Odds: 1

33/1

I'm Spartacus

11.9

OR: 6.3 Form: 5.1 Odds: 0.6

40/1

Callianassa

7.5

OR: 6.3 Form: 0.9 Odds: 0.3

125/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Sommelier	96	100	89
Brave Empire	95	105	—
G'Day Mate	93	95	—
Neapolitan	88	103	87
Harvanna	86	103	—
Blue Prince	85	104	84
Bazball	78	103	92
Loaded Gun	76	103	84
I'm Spartacus	75	99	82
Callianassa	75	103	90

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Blue Prince	11d ago	Quick return
Loaded Gun	11d ago	Quick return
Callianassa	11d ago	Quick return
Neapolitan	14d ago	Fit
Bazball	26d ago	Fit
I'm Spartacus	26d ago	Fit
Sommelier	42d ago	Fit
G'Day Mate	128d ago	Long break
Harvanna	173d ago	Long break
Brave Empire	191d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 6f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Based on 11 draws with historical results at this course and distance.