Best Racing Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Classified Stakes – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

20:00

Best Racing Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Classified Stakes

Date 2024-01-09

Distance 1m13y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £2,983

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
2 (10)	Big Narstie b/br J:Rossa Ryan T:Michael Appleby	J:Rossa Ryan T:Michael Appleby	128	tb	00760-	50	71	45	11d	—	—	-20	8.9	0.56/1	9/4 31%
Basically downhill since Class 6 win here (7f) last February; blinkers now.
4 (6)	Broughtons Flare Chestnut J:Hollie Doyle T:Mark Loughnane	J:Hollie Doyle T:Mark Loughnane	128	—	7778-4	47	70	34	7d	—	—	-13	5.2	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Won three times (once here and twice at Wolverhampton) last January; fair effort latest.
6 (9)	Coconut Bay Bay J:Phil Dennis T:Tristan Davidson	J:Phil Dennis T:Tristan Davidson	128	—	3425-5	45	63	47	7d	—	—	-14	5.7	0.88/1	7/2 22%
1-26; runner-up over C&D (13-2) three starts back, which brings her into the equation.
12 (12)	Twistaline Bay J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Michael Appleby	J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Michael Appleby	128	—	83545-	47	68	53	138d	—	—	-6	3.6	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Three AW wins, the latest in a visor at Wolverhampton last winter; back from a break
9 (4)	Inexplicable gr/b J:Mark Winn(3) T:Antony Brittain	J:Mark Winn(3) T:Antony Brittain	128	tv	48808-	46	61	30	74d	—	—	-6	2.5	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Wolverhampton specialist; struggling when last seen but is still more appealing than many.
11 (1)	Qaabil Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Tony Coyle	J:Tom Eaves T:Tony Coyle	128	b	02300-	46	65	50	33d	—	—	-2	4.7	3.50/1	14/1 7%
1-35, sole win in 1m apprentice handicap at Gowran Park in 2022; two runs for this yard.
5 (7)	Button Bay Bay J:David Probert T:Jack Jones	J:David Probert T:Jack Jones	128	—	878-	46	55	35	36d	—	—	-4	1.6	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Slowly away all three starts, best form on second outing; plenty more required.
3 (11)	Brazen Arrow Brown J:Christian Howarth(3) T:Christine Dunnett	J:Christian Howarth(3) T:Christine Dunnett	128	v	03509-	43	63	39	22d	—	—	-2	2.1	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Poor win ratio (1-43); placed at Chelmsford (7f, Class 6) in November; not so good since.
7 (8)	Dazamay Chestnut J:Callum Shepherd T:Stella Barclay	J:Callum Shepherd T:Stella Barclay	128	—	676-	41	54	23	81d	—	—	-1	0.5	16.50/1	66/1 1%
Managed to beat just a single rival in three starts (7f-1m; novice/maiden) for P. Kirby.
10 (5)	Peruvian Sunset Bay J:Gina Mangan(3) T:John Stimpson	J:Gina Mangan(3) T:John Stimpson	128	t	875-	41	45	-	45d	—	—	-1	0.5	25.00/1	100/1 1%
Has shown next to nothing, including in tongue-tie latest (200-1); best to look elsewhere.
1 (3)	Amenadiel Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Derek Shaw	J:Cam Hardie T:Derek Shaw	128	—	009-	29	26	-	21d	—	—	-1	0.3	31.25/1	125/1 1%
Massive odds; well beaten in all three AW starts (7f-1m4f); best to look elsewhere.
NR (2)	Gypsy Whisper Bay J:Kieran O'Neill T:Scott Dixon	J:Kieran O'Neill T:Scott Dixon	128	p	2372-2	50	68	49	7d	—	—	—	5	—	—
Yet to win on AW (0-21); second in a similar event at Wolverhampton (8.5f) last week.

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Big Narstie	9/4	9/4	9/4	7/4	2/1
Broughtons Flare	4/1	4/1	7/2	4/1	10/3
Coconut Bay	3/1	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2
Twistaline	7/1	8/1	15/2	15/2	7/1
Inexplicable	8/1	9/1	17/2	17/2	8/1
Qaabil	12/1	14/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Button Bay	16/1	16/1	16/1	14/1	14/1
Brazen Arrow	22/1	22/1	18/1	20/1	18/1
Dazamay	66/1	50/1	50/1	50/1	50/1
Peruvian Sunset	100/1	50/1	50/1	50/1	50/1
Amenadiel	100/1	125/1	100/1	125/1	125/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Big Narstie

8.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 8.9

9/4

2nd

Coconut Bay

5.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 5.7

7/2

3rd

Broughtons Flare

5.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 5.2

4/1

Gypsy Whisper

OR: 0 Form: 5 Odds: 0

—

Qaabil

4.7

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 1.7

14/1

Twistaline

3.6

OR: 0 Form: 0.9 Odds: 2.7

8/1

Inexplicable

2.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

9/1

Brazen Arrow

2.1

OR: 0 Form: 0.9 Odds: 1.2

22/1

Button Bay

1.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

16/1

Dazamay

0.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

66/1

Peruvian Sunset

0.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

100/1

Amenadiel

0.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

125/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Big Narstie	50	71	45
Gypsy Whisper	50	68	49
Broughtons Flare	47	70	34
Twistaline	47	68	53
Inexplicable	46	61	30
Qaabil	46	65	50
Button Bay	46	55	35
Coconut Bay	45	63	47
Brazen Arrow	43	63	39
Dazamay	41	54	23
Peruvian Sunset	41	45	—
Amenadiel	29	26	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Broughtons Flare	7d ago	Quick return
Coconut Bay	7d ago	Quick return
Gypsy Whisper	7d ago	Quick return
Big Narstie	11d ago	Quick return
Amenadiel	21d ago	Fit
Brazen Arrow	22d ago	Fit
Qaabil	33d ago	Fit
Button Bay	36d ago	Fit
Peruvian Sunset	45d ago	Fit
Inexplicable	74d ago	Fresh
Dazamay	81d ago	Fresh
Twistaline	138d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 1m13y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 9 draws with historical results at this course and distance.