Unibet Support Safe Gambling Novice Stakes (Div II) – Kempton (AW)

Kempton (AW)

20:00

Unibet Support Safe Gambling Novice Stakes (Div II)

Date 2024-01-10

Distance 1m2f219y

Class Class 5

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £4,320

Runners (9)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
6 (1)	Rogue Lion Grey J:Tom Marquand T:Tom Clover	J:Tom Marquand T:Tom Clover	130	—	4-	-	62	-	263d	—	—	-21	9.4	0.50/1	2/1 33%
Modest form when fourth at Nottingham last April; gelded since; check the betting
4 (5)	Lartigue Chestnut J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	130	—	2-	-	87	55	32d	—	—	-16	14.4	0.47/1	15/8 35%
Promising second, one place in front of Composite, at Wolverhampton on debut; respected
1 (7)	Composite Bay J:Hector Crouch T:George Boughey	J:Hector Crouch T:George Boughey	137	—	31-	-	85	65	23d	—	—	-5	19.4	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Won at Wolverhampton last time and looks open to further progress; major player
2 (3)	Little Peter Bay J:Luke Catton(5) T:John Berry	J:Luke Catton(5) T:John Berry	132	—	2-	-	86	57	20d	—	—	-4	8.6	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Bumper winner; clear second at Southwell on the switch to this code; in the mix
3 (9)	Escarpment Bay J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Michael Appleby	J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Michael Appleby	130	—	/2360-	74	77	21	22d	—	—	+6	10	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Still has something to prove beyond 1m; second run for new connections
9 (2)	Starspangledsammy Chestnut J:Neil Callan T:Conrad Allen	J:Neil Callan T:Conrad Allen	125	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-2	0.9	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Showed some ability in Huntingdon bumper but the form isn't compelling
7 (4)	Sullivan Bay Bay J:Shane Kelly T:Gary Brown	J:Shane Kelly T:Gary Brown	130	—	07-	-	81	-	—	—	—	-1	0.2	50.00/1	200/1 0%
Not solid on Irish Flat efforts; pulled up in juvenile hurdle for new yard
5 (6)	Reign Of Thunder Bay J:Tyler Heard(3) T:Mark Usher	J:Tyler Heard(3) T:Mark Usher	130	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.2	50.00/1	200/1 0%
Newcomer by Linda's Lad; stable has poor strike-rate at novice level
8 (8)	Miss Billie Bay J:Adam Farragher T:Michael Wigham	J:Adam Farragher T:Michael Wigham	125	—	90-	-	62	22	159d	—	—	-1	0.2	50.00/1	200/1 0%
Poor claims on her 7f/1m efforts last summer

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Rogue Lion	7/4	2/1	15/8	15/8	15/8
Lartigue	15/8	7/4	13/8	13/8	13/8
Composite	10/3	3/1	3/1	3/1	3/1
Little Peter	6/1	6/1	6/1	5/1	5/1
Escarpment	33/1	22/1	25/1	20/1	22/1
Starspangledsammy	28/1	25/1	40/1	22/1	25/1
Sullivan Bay	200/1	125/1	200/1	125/1	125/1
Reign Of Thunder	150/1	125/1	200/1	100/1	100/1
Miss Billie	200/1	125/1	200/1	125/1	125/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Composite

19.4

OR: 0 Form: 12.1 Odds: 7.3

10/3

2nd

Lartigue

14.4

OR: 0 Form: 5 Odds: 9.4

15/8

3rd

Escarpment

OR: 6 Form: 3 Odds: 1

33/1

Rogue Lion

9.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 9.4

2/1

Little Peter

8.6

OR: 0 Form: 5 Odds: 3.6

6/1

Starspangledsammy

0.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

40/1

Sullivan Bay

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

200/1

Reign Of Thunder

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

200/1

Miss Billie

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

200/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Escarpment	74	77	21
Rogue Lion	—	62	—
Lartigue	—	87	55
Composite	—	85	65
Little Peter	—	86	57
Starspangledsammy	—	—	—
Sullivan Bay	—	81	—
Reign Of Thunder	—	—	—
Miss Billie	—	62	22

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Little Peter	20d ago	Fit
Escarpment	22d ago	Fit
Composite	23d ago	Fit
Lartigue	32d ago	Fit
Miss Billie	159d ago	Long break
Rogue Lion	263d ago	Long break
Starspangledsammy	—	—
Sullivan Bay	—	—
Reign Of Thunder	—	—

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Kempton (AW) over 1m2f219y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Based on 8 draws with historical results at this course and distance.