Unibet Novice Stakes (GBB Race) – Kempton (AW)

Kempton (AW)

18:30

Unibet Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Date 2024-01-10

Distance 1m

Class Class 5

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo

Prize £4,320

Runners (10)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
5 (6)	El Cordobes Bay J:James Doyle T:Charlie Appleby	J:James Doyle T:Charlie Appleby	133	—	6-	-	83	65	35d	—	—	-26	12.5	0.31/1	5/4 44%
2,000,000gns yearling; only sixth over C&D five weeks ago but should improve
4 (4)	Condor Pasa Chestnut J:Jack Mitchell T:Roger Varian	J:Jack Mitchell T:Roger Varian	133	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-19	8.4	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Siyouni colt; one of two newcomers for this stable; shortlisted
9 (7)	West Hollywood Bay J:Cameron Noble T:Roger Varian	J:Cameron Noble T:Roger Varian	133	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-9	3.6	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Uncle Mo half-brother to a BC winner; yard also runs Condor Pasa; market helpful
6 (8)	Ghostlore Bay J:Harry Davies T:Simon & Ed Crisford	J:Harry Davies T:Simon & Ed Crisford	133	h	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-8	3.1	1.75/1	7/1 13%
260,000euros yearling; by Frankel; wears hood on debut; check the betting
2 (9)	Bursinel Bay J:Tom Marquand T:William Haggas	J:Tom Marquand T:William Haggas	133	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-4	1.4	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Sibling to eight winners, mostly for his yard; already gelded but he's nicely bred
3 (3)	Calculate Bay J:Rob Hornby T:Andrew Balding	J:Rob Hornby T:Andrew Balding	133	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-3	1	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Cracksman colt; represents esteemed connections; heed the market signals
1 (5)	Advert Rules Bay J:Rossa Ryan T:Alan King	J:Rossa Ryan T:Alan King	133	—	04-	-	80	60	35d	—	—	-3	1.2	7.00/1	28/1 3%
One of the main form contenders, having outrun his 200-1 odds over C&D last time
10 (10)	Morning Light Bay J:Hector Crouch T:Ralph Beckett	J:Hector Crouch T:Ralph Beckett	128	b	00-	-	61	-	28d	—	—	-2	0.7	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Fitting of headgear needs to spark major improvement
7 (1)	Namrud Bay J:Daniel Muscutt T:Marco Botti	J:Daniel Muscutt T:Marco Botti	133	—	84-	-	65	-	20d	—	—	-1	0.3	37.50/1	150/1 1%
Comfortably held in both outings
8 (2)	New Statesman Bay J:Ross Coakley T:Ed Walker	J:Ross Coakley T:Ed Walker	133	—	0-	-	9	-	28d	—	—	-1	0.2	50.00/1	200/1 0%
Inauspicious debut (last of 14) here four weeks ago

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
El Cordobes	11/10	5/4	5/4	5/4	6/5
Condor Pasa	5/2	5/2	11/4	9/4	9/4
West Hollywood	13/2	11/2	11/2	11/2	6/1
Ghostlore	7/1	7/1	13/2	6/1	13/2
Bursinel	18/1	16/1	16/1	14/1	16/1
Calculate	25/1	22/1	20/1	20/1	20/1
Advert Rules	28/1	20/1	22/1	16/1	20/1
Morning Light	33/1	33/1	28/1	28/1	28/1
Namrud	150/1	100/1	100/1	80/1	100/1
New Statesman	200/1	150/1	200/1	100/1	150/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

El Cordobes

12.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 12.5

5/4

2nd

Condor Pasa

8.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 8.4

11/4

3rd

West Hollywood

3.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

13/2

Ghostlore

3.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

7/1

Bursinel

1.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

18/1

Advert Rules

1.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

28/1

Calculate

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1

25/1

Morning Light

0.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

33/1

Namrud

0.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

150/1

New Statesman

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

200/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
El Cordobes	—	83	65
Condor Pasa	—	—	—
West Hollywood	—	—	—
Ghostlore	—	—	—
Bursinel	—	—	—
Calculate	—	—	—
Advert Rules	—	80	60
Morning Light	—	61	—
Namrud	—	65	—
New Statesman	—	9	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Namrud	20d ago	Fit
Morning Light	28d ago	Fit
New Statesman	28d ago	Fit
El Cordobes	35d ago	Fit
Advert Rules	35d ago	Fit
Condor Pasa	—	—
West Hollywood	—	—
Ghostlore	—	—
Bursinel	—	—
Calculate	—	—

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Kempton (AW) over 1m. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Based on 11 draws with historical results at this course and distance.