BetMGM: Its Showtime Handicap (Div II) – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

14:05

BetMGM: Its Showtime Handicap (Div II)

Date 2024-01-11

Distance 1m13y

Class Class 4

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £6,281

Winning Time 1m 40.64s (slow by 2.94s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Goldsmith (IRE) Kieran O'Neill · Alice Haynes	11/4	Won
2nd	Law Supreme (FR) Clifford Lee · Ian Williams	100/30	1
3rd	Ciotog (IRE) Billy Loughnane · Mark Loughnane	8/1	1
4th	Leap Day (GB) David Allan · Tim Easterby	5/2F	0.3
5th	Hortzadar (GB) Mark Winn · David O'Meara	10/1	0.2
6th	Light Up Our Stars (IRE) Phil Dennis · Scott Dixon	22/1	0.05
7th	Innse Gall (GB) Tom Eaves · Craig Lidster	10/1	0.3
8th	Conservative (IRE) Elisha Whittington · Scott Dixon	22/1	1.25
9th	One More Dream (GB) Gianluca Sanna · John Quinn	80/1	13
10th	Smalleytime (IRE) Andrew Breslin · Ben Haslam	150/1	23

Runners (10)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
6 (4)	Goldsmith Bay J:Kieran O'Neill T:Alice Haynes	J:Kieran O'Neill T:Alice Haynes	128	h	32921-	70	90	79	15d	—	—	+2	29	0.63/1	5/2 29%
Won over 9.5f last time; not crying out for return to 1m but he's largely consistent
5 (5)	Leap Day Bay J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	130	—	25431-	72	89	46	13d	—	—	+2	25.9	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Opened his account in C&D novice event two weeks ago; could well build on that success
3 (3)	Law Supreme Bay J:Clifford Lee T:Ian Williams	J:Clifford Lee T:Ian Williams	133	—	4/86-2	75	90	53	4d	—	—	-4	17.9	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Ex-French; good effort at Wolverhampton four days ago (third start for new stable)
8 (6)	Ciotog Chestnut J:Billy Loughnane T:Mark Loughnane	J:Billy Loughnane T:Mark Loughnane	128	—	15768-	70	87	50	22d	—	—	0	9.7	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Has failed to land a blow since returning to AW; now only 1-15 in this sphere
1 (2)	Hortzadar Bay J:Mark Winn(3) T:David O'Meara	J:Mark Winn(3) T:David O'Meara	137	p	12013-	79	91	45	34d	—	—	+15	23	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Took well to Tapeta at Newcastle the last twice, winning then close third; likely player
2 (10)	Innse Gall Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Craig Lidster	J:Tom Eaves T:Craig Lidster	135	—	31856-	77	88	-	110d	—	—	+5	12.5	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Most wins over longer trips; drop back to 1m looks a negative on debut for new yard
7 (1)	Light Up Our Stars Bay J:Phil Dennis T:Scott Dixon	J:Phil Dennis T:Scott Dixon	128	ht	77747-	70	89	69	12d	—	—	+2	6.1	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Has frame possibilities, provided he runs to form with tongue-tie added
10 (9)	Conservative Bay J:Elisha Whittington(3) T:Scott Dixon	J:Elisha Whittington(3) T:Scott Dixon	123	—	643U7-	65	88	39	196d	—	—	+1	5.3	6.25/1	25/1 4%
C&D scorer in 2022 for previous yard; 0-8 for current stable and has regressed
4 (7)	One More Dream Brown J:Gianluca Sanna(5) T:John Quinn	J:Gianluca Sanna(5) T:John Quinn	130	—	18000-	72	89	17	14d	—	—	+6	8	16.50/1	66/1 1%
Has badly lost his form since last win and this new trip is an added question mark
9 (8)	Smalleytime Chestnut J:Andrew Breslin(3) T:Ben Haslam	J:Andrew Breslin(3) T:Ben Haslam	127	h	46009-	69	89	72	47d	—	—	+4	5.1	25.00/1	100/1 1%
First-time hood needs to make a difference on debut for new yard

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Goldsmith	5/2	9/4	5/2	9/4	9/4
Leap Day	9/4	5/2	11/4	5/2	5/2
Law Supreme	10/3	3/1	3/1	3/1	3/1
Ciotog	9/1	8/1	8/1	8/1	8/1
Hortzadar	11/1	10/1	10/1	10/1	10/1
Innse Gall	18/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1
Light Up Our Stars	20/1	20/1	22/1	22/1	20/1
Conservative	18/1	25/1	25/1	25/1	25/1
One More Dream	66/1	66/1	66/1	66/1	66/1
Smalleytime	100/1	100/1	100/1	100/1	100/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Goldsmith

OR: 5 Form: 15.6 Odds: 8.4

5/2

2nd

Leap Day

25.9

OR: 5.5 Form: 13.1 Odds: 7.3

11/4

3rd

Hortzadar

OR: 7.3 Form: 13.5 Odds: 2.2

11/1

Law Supreme

17.9

OR: 6.3 Form: 5 Odds: 6.7

10/3

Innse Gall

12.5

OR: 6.8 Form: 3.6 Odds: 2.1

18/1

Ciotog

9.7

OR: 5 Form: 2 Odds: 2.7

9/1

One More Dream

OR: 5.5 Form: 2 Odds: 0.5

66/1

Light Up Our Stars

6.1

OR: 5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

22/1

Conservative

5.3

OR: 3.8 Form: 0.5 Odds: 1.1

25/1

Smalleytime

5.1

OR: 4.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

100/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Hortzadar	79	91	45
Innse Gall	77	88	—
Law Supreme	75	90	53
Leap Day	72	89	46
One More Dream	72	89	17
Goldsmith	70	90	79
Ciotog	70	87	50
Light Up Our Stars	70	89	69
Smalleytime	69	89	72
Conservative	65	88	39

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Law Supreme	4d ago	Quick return
Light Up Our Stars	12d ago	Quick return
Leap Day	13d ago	Quick return
One More Dream	14d ago	Fit
Goldsmith	15d ago	Fit
Ciotog	22d ago	Fit
Hortzadar	34d ago	Fit
Smalleytime	47d ago	Fresh
Innse Gall	110d ago	Long break
Conservative	196d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 1m13y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Based on 9 draws with historical results at this course and distance.