BetMGM: It's Showtime Novice Stakes – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

18:15

BetMGM: It's Showtime Novice Stakes

Date 2024-03-12

Distance 1m5y

Class Class 4

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £6,156

Runners (6)

EW Terms: 2 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
6 (6)	Gemstar Bay J:Callum Rodriguez T:Edward Bethell	J:Callum Rodriguez T:Edward Bethell	127	—	2	-	95	40	11d	—	—	-26	20.4	0.23/1	10/11 52%
Promising 2nd over 7f here 11 days ago (well backed); more to come and she's a key player
1 (3)	Hopeful Bay J:David Probert T:Andrew Balding	J:David Probert T:Andrew Balding	133	—	4/1	-	98	18	68d	—	—	-11	19.4	0.44/1	7/4 36%
Impressive over C&D (after long absence) in January; likely hard to beat under a penalty
4 (4)	Lakota Brave Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:Archie Watson	J:Hollie Doyle T:Archie Watson	132	—	3	-	80	23	11d	—	—	-4	5.9	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Debut effort 11 days ago not without promise; new trip not sure to suit but can do better
3 (5)	Gunlock Bay J:Sam James T:K R Burke	J:Sam James T:K R Burke	132	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-4	1.5	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Useful US pedigree; yard can ready one but this is a belated racecourse debut
2 (1)	Achernar Chestnut J:Paul Mulrennan T:Hugo Palmer	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Hugo Palmer	132	t	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-3	1.2	5.00/1	20/1 5%
65,000gns half-brother to six winners; unraced dam well connected; tongue tied for debut
5 (2)	Lesrico Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Lisa Williamson	J:Cam Hardie T:Lisa Williamson	132	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.2	37.50/1	150/1 1%
Bred to have a future but he's an unlikely winner in this field

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Gemstar	10/11	10/11	10/11
Hopeful	7/4	7/4	7/4
Lakota Brave	7/1	15/2	15/2
Gunlock	16/1	14/1	14/1
Achernar	20/1	18/1	18/1
Lesrico	150/1	150/1	150/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Gemstar

20.4

OR: 0 Form: 5 Odds: 15.4

10/11

2nd

Hopeful

19.4

OR: 0 Form: 10 Odds: 9.4

7/4

3rd

Lakota Brave

5.9

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 2.9

15/2

Gunlock

1.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.5

16/1

Achernar

1.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

20/1

Lesrico

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

150/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Gemstar	—	95	40
Hopeful	—	98	18
Lakota Brave	—	80	23
Gunlock	—	—	—
Achernar	—	—	—
Lesrico	—	—	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Gemstar	11d ago	Quick return
Lakota Brave	11d ago	Quick return
Hopeful	68d ago	Fresh
Gunlock	—	—
Achernar	—	—
Lesrico	—	—

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 1m5y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6

Based on 4 draws with historical results at this course and distance.