Bet £10 Get £40 At BetMGM Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

18:45

Bet £10 Get £40 At BetMGM Handicap

Date 2024-03-13

Distance 7f14y

Class Class 4

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £5,757

Runners (8)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
2 (2)	Sibyl Charm Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Iain Jardine	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Iain Jardine	135	—	-21221	77	87	66	10d	—	—	+7	35.6	0.50/1	2/1 33%
In the groove at present, gaining 2nd course win ten days ago (6f); chance despite penalty
3 (1)	Prairie Falcon Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:Michael Dods	J:Hollie Doyle T:Michael Dods	134	—	40283-	76	88	-	208d	—	—	+2	16	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Winless last year but starts this campaign off good mark; this is easier than he's used to
1 (5)	Woodstock Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Ruth Carr	J:Joanna Mason T:Ruth Carr	135	—	18627-	77	86	-	252d	—	—	+3	15.9	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Promising on AW for former yard; struggled in turf h'caps but this is weaker; check market
7 (3)	Sir Maxi Bay J:Oisin Orr T:Richard Fahey	J:Oisin Orr T:Richard Fahey	128	—	3-9563	70	92	64	12d	0W/0P 1 run	0W/0P 1 run	-1	10.4	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Capitalised on the fast pace when winning over C&D in November; not sure he'll get it here
6 (8)	Goldsmith Bay J:Kieran O'Neill T:Alice Haynes	J:Kieran O'Neill T:Alice Haynes	132	h	404410	74	88	72	11d	—	—	+7	15.5	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Five-time AW winner but over further; below par latest; query over this trip
5 (6)	Initio Bay J:Harrison Shaw T:Edward Bethell	J:Harrison Shaw T:Edward Bethell	133	—	37015-	75	85	76	120d	—	—	+7	16.4	2.13/1	17/2 11%
7f win at Wolverhampton in October; fair 5th in handicap there one month later; needs more
4 (7)	Illusionist Bay J:Adam Farragher T:Grant Tuer	J:Adam Farragher T:Grant Tuer	133	—	338-36	75	91	73	10d	—	—	0	8.8	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Better known for sprint exploits; has finished behind Sibyl Charm here the last twice
8 (4)	Bowman Bay J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Danny Brooke	J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Danny Brooke	126	—	869-08	68	91	79	37d	—	—	+1	5.9	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Had a quiet spell for former yard and something to prove starting out for this one

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Sibyl Charm	2/1	15/8	2/1	15/8	15/8
Prairie Falcon	5/1	5/1	5/1	9/2	5/1
Woodstock	5/1	11/2	11/2	11/2	11/2
Sir Maxi	13/2	6/1	6/1	6/1	6/1
Goldsmith	17/2	8/1	8/1	17/2	8/1
Initio	17/2	8/1	17/2	17/2	8/1
Illusionist	11/1	8/1	17/2	17/2	8/1
Bowman	18/1	16/1	16/1	16/1	16/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Sibyl Charm

35.6

OR: 6.8 Form: 20 Odds: 8.9

2/1

2nd

Initio

16.4

OR: 6.3 Form: 7.6 Odds: 2.5

17/2

3rd

Prairie Falcon

OR: 6.5 Form: 5.5 Odds: 4

5/1

Woodstock

15.9

OR: 6.8 Form: 5.5 Odds: 3.6

11/2

Goldsmith

15.5

OR: 6 Form: 7 Odds: 2.5

17/2

Sir Maxi

10.4

OR: 5 Form: 2.1 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Illusionist

8.8

OR: 6.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

11/1

Bowman

5.9

OR: 4.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

18/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Sibyl Charm	77	87	66
Woodstock	77	86	—
Prairie Falcon	76	88	—
Initio	75	85	76
Illusionist	75	91	73
Goldsmith	74	88	72
Sir Maxi	70	92	64
Bowman	68	91	79

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Sibyl Charm	10d ago	Quick return
Illusionist	10d ago	Quick return
Goldsmith	11d ago	Quick return
Sir Maxi	12d ago	Quick return
Bowman	37d ago	Fit
Initio	120d ago	Long break
Prairie Falcon	208d ago	Long break
Woodstock	252d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 7f14y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Based on 12 draws with historical results at this course and distance.