Stay Golden With BetMGM Safer Gambling Handicap (Div II) – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

20:15

Stay Golden With BetMGM Safer Gambling Handicap (Div II)

Date 2024-03-13

Distance 1m5y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £6,804

Winning Time 1m 40.50s (slow by 3.50s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Havana Party (GB) Lewis Edmunds · Iain Jardine	4/1	Won
2nd	Natzor (FR) Daniel Tudhope · David O'Meara	8/1	0.2
3rd	Cusack (GB) Sean Kirrane · David Thompson	5/1	2.25
4th	Chantico (GB) Harry Russell · Adrian Paul Keatley	7/2J	.75
5th	Irish Flame (GB) Jason Hart · Michael Dods	7/2J	2.5
6th	Harswell Duke (IRE) Jonny Peate · Roger Fell & Sean Murray	18/1	1.25
7th	Skilled Warrior (IRE) Adam Farragher · Grant Tuer	16/1	5.5
8th	Sugar Hill (IRE) Callum Rodriguez · George Boughey	17/2	0.2
9th	Showmedemoney (IRE) Cam Hardie · Iain Jardine	25/1	1

Runners (9)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
7 (4)	Irish Flame Bay J:Jason Hart T:Michael Dods	J:Jason Hart T:Michael Dods	129	v	340-34	69	88	49	20d	—	—	-6	9.2	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Yet to win a handicap; effective over C&D but work to do with Havana Party; new headgear
5 (8)	Chantico Bay J:Harry Russell T:Adrian Paul Keatley	J:Harry Russell T:Adrian Paul Keatley	132	—	08-798	72	87	51	11d	—	—	-5	9.5	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Handicapper in command since his novice win 12 months ago; others look safer
2 (3)	Cusack Bay J:Sean Kirrane T:David Thompson	J:Sean Kirrane T:David Thompson	135	p	-31165	75	87	63	12d	—	—	+5	18.9	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Surge of improvement to win two here last month but safely held off this mark twice since
3 (1)	Havana Party Chestnut J:Lewis Edmunds T:Iain Jardine	J:Lewis Edmunds T:Iain Jardine	134	b	9512-1	74	86	57	20d	—	—	+5	20.4	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Winning return over C&D last month; now 6lb higher but did it well and can't be ignored
8 (7)	Natzor Bay J:Daniel Tudhope T:David O'Meara	J:Daniel Tudhope T:David O'Meara	128	—	38070-	68	88	49	166d	0W/0P 1 run	—	-2	8	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Didn't progress for A Watson but has had a wind op prior to this stable debut; interesting
4 (9)	Sugar Hill Bay J:Callum Rodriguez T:George Boughey	J:Callum Rodriguez T:George Boughey	133	t	437-54	73	85	68	33d	—	—	0	8	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Has ability but also his share of temperament; betting instructive now handicapping
6 (2)	Skilled Warrior Bay J:Adam Farragher T:Grant Tuer	J:Adam Farragher T:Grant Tuer	131	—	8-4880	71	89	74	12d	—	—	+2	6.6	3.50/1	14/1 7%
C&D winner off 10lb higher last April; mixed bag this winter but he's capable
9 (5)	Showmedemoney Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Iain Jardine	J:Cam Hardie T:Iain Jardine	120	tp	7-6673	60	85	56	20d	—	—	0	3.4	5.50/1	22/1 4%
More encouragement when 3rd to Havana Party here last month; on a dangerous mark
1 (6)	Harswell Duke Bay J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	135	—	07670-	75	87	66	127d	—	—	+4	7	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Won the Lincoln consolation off 8lb higher last spring; struggled after; 0-5 on AW

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Irish Flame	4/1	4/1	4/1	4/1	4/1
Chantico	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2
Cusack	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2
Havana Party	4/1	4/1	4/1	4/1	4/1
Natzor	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2
Sugar Hill	17/2	17/2	17/2	17/2	17/2
Skilled Warrior	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1
Showmedemoney	22/1	22/1	22/1	22/1	22/1
Harswell Duke	25/1	25/1	25/1	25/1	25/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Havana Party

20.4

OR: 6 Form: 10 Odds: 4.4

4/1

2nd

Cusack

18.9

OR: 6.3 Form: 8.6 Odds: 4

9/2

3rd

Chantico

9.5

OR: 5.5 Form: 0 Odds: 4

9/2

Irish Flame

9.2

OR: 4.8 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

4/1

Natzor

OR: 4.5 Form: 0.6 Odds: 2.9

13/2

Sugar Hill

OR: 5.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.3

17/2

Harswell Duke

OR: 6.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

25/1

Skilled Warrior

6.6

OR: 5.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

14/1

Showmedemoney

3.4

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

22/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Cusack	75	87	63
Harswell Duke	75	87	66
Havana Party	74	86	57
Sugar Hill	73	85	68
Chantico	72	87	51
Skilled Warrior	71	89	74
Irish Flame	69	88	49
Natzor	68	88	49
Showmedemoney	60	85	56

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Chantico	11d ago	Quick return
Cusack	12d ago	Quick return
Skilled Warrior	12d ago	Quick return
Irish Flame	20d ago	Fit
Havana Party	20d ago	Fit
Showmedemoney	20d ago	Fit
Sugar Hill	33d ago	Fit
Harswell Duke	127d ago	Long break
Natzor	166d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 1m5y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Based on 4 draws with historical results at this course and distance.