Win £2,000,000 With BetMGM's Golden Goals Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

17:45

Win £2,000,000 With BetMGM's Golden Goals Handicap

Date 2024-03-13

Distance 1m5y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo

Prize £4,187

Runners (8)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
6 (4)	Papagei Chestnut J:Hollie Doyle T:James Ferguson	J:Hollie Doyle T:James Ferguson	129	—	760-	64	73	36	160d	—	—	-19	13.5	0.47/1	15/8 35%
Promise on debut last summer; likely improver handicapping over 1m this year; been gelded
7 (2)	Superb Force Chestnut J:Silvestre De Sousa T:Andrew Balding	J:Silvestre De Sousa T:Andrew Balding	127	b	7-8425	62	86	75	11d	—	—	-14	10.3	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Fluffed his lines at Kempton but still of major interest judged on earlier Lingfield 2nd
2 (1)	Havanarama Bay J:Jason Hart T:Hugo Palmer	J:Jason Hart T:Hugo Palmer	134	ht	745-12	69	79	53	20d	—	—	-6	9.2	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Kempton win in January followed by a solid 2nd here (both 7f); up in trip; can race freely
4 (5)	Squeaker Bay J:Benoit De La Sayette T:Marco Botti	J:Benoit De La Sayette T:Marco Botti	133	—	4425-7	68	79	58	11d	—	—	-4	7.8	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Shown enough to think she could win a handicap but needs to bounce back from a modest run
3 (6)	Khamsin Bay J:Hayley Turner T:David Simcock	J:Hayley Turner T:David Simcock	133	—	404-44	68	79	46	40d	—	—	-2	7	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Fourth in two small-field handicaps this year; needs more but that's impossible
1 (7)	Mariner Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:Jessica Macey	J:Lewis Edmunds T:Jessica Macey	135	—	554-94	70	73	39	20d	—	—	+1	6.4	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Similar form in three course runs for this yard; returning to 1m not enough to tempt
5 (3)	Mon Etoile Grey J:Franny Norton T:Charlie Johnston	J:Franny Norton T:Charlie Johnston	130	—	P7-222	65	76	44	25d	—	—	+1	5	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Runner-up in AW maidens on her last three starts; more needed on this handicap debut
8 (8)	Infinite Honour Chestnut J:Cam Hardie T:Susan Corbett	J:Cam Hardie T:Susan Corbett	122	—	574-	57	74	-	179d	—	—	+1	2.1	25.00/1	100/1 1%
Appeals as a likely improver this year but he's eligible for weaker races than this

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Papagei	6/4	13/8	15/8	6/4	6/4
Superb Force	7/2	3/1	11/4	3/1	9/4
Havanarama	9/2	4/1	4/1	9/2	4/1
Squeaker	6/1	11/2	6/1	6/1	11/2
Khamsin	9/1	17/2	9/1	9/1	8/1
Mariner	16/1	14/1	16/1	14/1	14/1
Mon Etoile	20/1	20/1	20/1	16/1	18/1
Infinite Honour	100/1	80/1	80/1	80/1	80/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Papagei

13.5

OR: 3.5 Form: 0 Odds: 10

15/8

2nd

Superb Force

10.3

OR: 3 Form: 0 Odds: 7.3

7/2

3rd

Havanarama

9.2

OR: 4.8 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

9/2

Squeaker

7.8

OR: 4.5 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

6/1

Khamsin

OR: 4.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

9/1

Mariner

6.4

OR: 5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

16/1

Mon Etoile

OR: 3.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

20/1

Infinite Honour

2.1

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

100/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Mariner	70	73	39
Havanarama	69	79	53
Squeaker	68	79	58
Khamsin	68	79	46
Mon Etoile	65	76	44
Papagei	64	73	36
Superb Force	62	86	75
Infinite Honour	57	74	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Superb Force	11d ago	Quick return
Squeaker	11d ago	Quick return
Havanarama	20d ago	Fit
Mariner	20d ago	Fit
Mon Etoile	25d ago	Fit
Khamsin	40d ago	Fit
Papagei	160d ago	Long break
Infinite Honour	179d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 1m5y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Based on 4 draws with historical results at this course and distance.