Bet £10 Get £40 At BetMGM Restricted Maiden Stakes (For horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)

Southwell (AW)

17:30

Date 2024-03-21

Distance 1m13y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3-5yo

Prize £6,156

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
2 (4)	Castle In The Sand Bay J:David Probert T:Andrew Balding	J:David Probert T:Andrew Balding	125	—	4022-	84	97	-	154d	—	—	-7	28.2	0.34/1	11/8 42%
RPR of 82 when second on soft twice last autumn; dam useful on AW; obvious claims
11 (5)	Blake Bay J:Luke Morris T:Peter Chapple-Hyam	J:Luke Morris T:Peter Chapple-Hyam	121	—	53-	-	90	62	155d	—	—	-8	7.4	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Plenty of promise in two Kempton runs last autumn (1m); strong contender on his return
8 (2)	Invincible Aura Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:Marco Botti	J:Hollie Doyle T:Marco Botti	123	—	24203-	75	92	58	145d	—	—	+3	16.8	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Promise as 2yo but expensive to follow; gelded since last seen; stamina to be proven
3 (7)	Corrales Bay J:Daniel Muscutt T:James Ferguson	J:Daniel Muscutt T:James Ferguson	125	—	4	-	81	56	32d	—	—	-7	2.7	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Promise over 7f on last month's debut; this trip will suit and he's got more to offer
7 (11)	Time Tested Bay J:Hector Crouch T:Michael Bell	J:Hector Crouch T:Michael Bell	125	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-4	1.4	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Half-brother to 1m Group 1 winner Fonteyn (RPR 116); betting to guide on debut
5 (12)	Memories Maker Chestnut J:Jason Hart T:Charlie Johnston	J:Jason Hart T:Charlie Johnston	125	—	34	-	83	28	26d	—	—	-1	3.3	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Didn't build on promise of his Newcastle debut when 4th over C&D latest; still early days
10 (3)	Spanish Vega Grey J:Benoit De La Sayette T:Kevin Philippart De Foy	J:Benoit De La Sayette T:Kevin Philippart De Foy	123	—	9-	-	77	56	99d	—	—	-3	1.1	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Dropped away in the straight on his Kempton debut; gelded since; others stronger today
6 (8)	Rock City Falls Bay J:Harry Davies T:Hugo Palmer	J:Harry Davies T:Hugo Palmer	125	—	6	-	75	28	22d	—	—	-2	0.9	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Green and outpaced in the straight on last month's debut (1m, Polytrack); can do better
12 (9)	Sylvan Spirit Chestnut J:Hayley Turner T:Harry Eustace	J:Hayley Turner T:Harry Eustace	118	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.4	12.50/1	50/1 2%
26,000euros yearling; dam a well-related 1m winner; market can guide
1 (6)	Buttertubs Chestnut J:Sam James T:Grant Tuer	J:Sam James T:Grant Tuer	125	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.2	25.00/1	100/1 1%
50,000euros yearling; half-brother to two winners in Europe; useful standard to aim at
4 (1)	Manhattan Sunday Bay J:Ryan Sexton T:Julie Camacho	J:Ryan Sexton T:Julie Camacho	125	—	0-0	-	22	-	37d	—	—	0	0.1	37.50/1	150/1 1%
Poor form in two runs over shorter at Newcastle; handicaps beckon
NR (10)	Signature Blue Grey J:Saffie Osborne T:Jamie Osborne	J:Saffie Osborne T:Jamie Osborne	123	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	—	0	—	—
Half-brother to fair US winner Inner Beauty (RPR 94); yard's newcomers better for a run

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Castle In The Sand	11/8	11/8	11/8	11/8	11/8
Blake	4/1	4/1	4/1	4/1	4/1
Invincible Aura	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2
Corrales	7/1	7/1	7/1	7/1	7/1
Time Tested	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1
Memories Maker	16/1	16/1	16/1	16/1	16/1
Spanish Vega	18/1	18/1	18/1	18/1	18/1
Rock City Falls	22/1	22/1	22/1	22/1	22/1
Sylvan Spirit	50/1	50/1	50/1	50/1	50/1
Buttertubs	100/1	100/1	100/1	100/1	100/1
Manhattan Sunday	150/1	150/1	150/1	150/1	150/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Castle In The Sand

28.2

OR: 8.5 Form: 8.5 Odds: 11.2

11/8

2nd

Invincible Aura

16.8

OR: 6.3 Form: 6.5 Odds: 4

9/2

3rd

Blake

7.4

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 4.4

4/1

Memories Maker

3.3

OR: 0 Form: 2.1 Odds: 1.2

16/1

Corrales

2.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.7

7/1

Time Tested

1.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

14/1

Spanish Vega

1.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

18/1

Rock City Falls

0.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

22/1

Sylvan Spirit

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

50/1

Buttertubs

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

100/1

Manhattan Sunday

0.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.1

150/1

Signature Blue

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Castle In The Sand	84	97	—
Invincible Aura	75	92	58
Blake	—	90	62
Corrales	—	81	56
Time Tested	—	—	—
Memories Maker	—	83	28
Spanish Vega	—	77	56
Rock City Falls	—	75	28
Sylvan Spirit	—	—	—
Buttertubs	—	—	—
Manhattan Sunday	—	22	—
Signature Blue	—	—	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Rock City Falls	22d ago	Fit
Memories Maker	26d ago	Fit
Corrales	32d ago	Fit
Manhattan Sunday	37d ago	Fit
Spanish Vega	99d ago	Long break
Invincible Aura	145d ago	Long break
Castle In The Sand	154d ago	Long break
Blake	155d ago	Long break
Time Tested	—	—
Sylvan Spirit	—	—
Buttertubs	—	—
Signature Blue	—	—

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 1m13y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 9 draws with historical results at this course and distance.