Boost Your Acca At BetMGM Classified Stakes – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

20:15

Boost Your Acca At BetMGM Classified Stakes

Date 2024-03-22

Distance 7f14y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £5,025

Runners (11)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
6 (9)	Drakeholes Grey J:Paul Mulrennan T:Alison Hamilton	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Alison Hamilton	128	—	5-8952	50	72	58	15d	—	—	-23	10.6	0.47/1	15/8 35%
Close second over C&D two weeks ago on classified debut; leading contender
11 (7)	Variety Island Bay J:Phil Dennis T:Simon Whitaker	J:Phil Dennis T:Simon Whitaker	128	—	22870-	49	71	60	198d	—	—	-11	8.2	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Respectable record at Newcastle; interesting back here on classified debut
10 (10)	Secret Daay Bay J:David Allan T:David Thompson	J:David Allan T:David Thompson	128	v	6-3328	49	69	63	47d	—	—	-8	3.1	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Capable of being thereabouts but record of 0-19 is the negative
5 (11)	Copper Mountain Bay J:Lewis Chalkley(7) T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Lewis Chalkley(7) T:Michael & David Easterby	128	t	-61643	49	71	57	15d	—	—	-2	9.1	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Ran respectably over 1m here the last twice; drops back in distance
2 (6)	Barleybrown Bay J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	128	—	30719-	50	68	-	172d	—	—	+1	10.1	2.25/1	9/1 10%
1m winner for Eve Johnson Houghton; favoured by the weights on stable debut
1 (5)	Headshot Bay J:Luke Morris T:Tony Carroll	J:Luke Morris T:Tony Carroll	133	p	53-451	44	63	47	8d	—	—	-6	2.2	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Incurs 5lb penalty for Southwell win and he's not an obvious type to follow up
9 (4)	Rum Runner Bay J:Shane Gray T:Geoffrey Harker	J:Shane Gray T:Geoffrey Harker	128	v	64-584	47	66	54	15d	—	—	-5	1.9	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Ties in with Drakeholes on C&D running last time; can't be dismissed
3 (2)	Billy McGarry Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Michael Herrington	J:Tom Eaves T:Michael Herrington	128	t	5-5710	49	67	51	15d	—	—	-4	1.6	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Scored over C&D two starts ago but he's an unreliable sort
4 (3)	Coconut Bay Bay J:Jason Hart T:Tristan Davidson	J:Jason Hart T:Tristan Davidson	128	—	-55366	45	63	51	11d	—	—	-2	2.7	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Question to answer back at 7f and again has something to find
7 (1)	Fulltime Bay J:Mark Winn(3) T:Rebecca Menzies	J:Mark Winn(3) T:Rebecca Menzies	128	t	00-699	40	52	18	15d	—	—	-2	0.6	16.50/1	66/1 1%
Ex-Irish maiden; has achieved little over 1m here for new yard
8 (8)	Maddisonelle Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Gillian Boanas	J:Joanna Mason T:Gillian Boanas	128	h	97-409	42	59	24	20d	—	—	-1	0.5	16.50/1	66/1 1%
Has failed to back up her January effort; hood enlisted

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Drakeholes	15/8	13/8	6/4	13/8	6/4
Variety Island	4/1	4/1	4/1	4/1	4/1
Secret Daay	7/1	13/2	7/1	15/2	6/1
Copper Mountain	7/1	7/1	15/2	8/1	7/1
Barleybrown	9/1	17/2	9/1	9/1	8/1
Headshot	14/1	10/1	12/1	14/1	10/1
Rum Runner	11/1	11/1	12/1	11/1	12/1
Billy McGarry	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1
Coconut Bay	16/1	28/1	28/1	28/1	25/1
Fulltime	66/1	66/1	66/1	66/1	50/1
Maddisonelle	50/1	66/1	66/1	66/1	66/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Drakeholes

10.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 10.6

15/8

2nd

Barleybrown

10.1

OR: 0 Form: 7.6 Odds: 2.5

9/1

3rd

Copper Mountain

9.1

OR: 0 Form: 6 Odds: 3.1

8/1

Variety Island

8.2

OR: 0 Form: 2.5 Odds: 5.7

4/1

Secret Daay

3.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

15/2

Coconut Bay

2.7

OR: 0 Form: 1.5 Odds: 1.2

28/1

Headshot

2.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.2

14/1

Rum Runner

1.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

12/1

Billy McGarry

1.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

14/1

Fulltime

0.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

66/1

Maddisonelle

0.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

66/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Drakeholes	50	72	58
Barleybrown	50	68	—
Variety Island	49	71	60
Secret Daay	49	69	63
Copper Mountain	49	71	57
Billy McGarry	49	67	51
Rum Runner	47	66	54
Coconut Bay	45	63	51
Headshot	44	63	47
Maddisonelle	42	59	24
Fulltime	40	52	18

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Headshot	8d ago	Quick return
Coconut Bay	11d ago	Quick return
Drakeholes	15d ago	Fit
Copper Mountain	15d ago	Fit
Rum Runner	15d ago	Fit
Billy McGarry	15d ago	Fit
Fulltime	15d ago	Fit
Maddisonelle	20d ago	Fit
Secret Daay	47d ago	Fresh
Barleybrown	172d ago	Long break
Variety Island	198d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 7f14y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Based on 12 draws with historical results at this course and distance.