Bet @ racingtv.com Handicap – Kempton (AW)

Kempton (AW)

20:30

Bet @ racingtv.com Handicap

Date 2024-04-10

Distance 1m3f219y

Class Class 6

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £3,140

Runners (13)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
6 (4)	Nivelle's Magic Bay J:Rossa Ryan T:Simon Earle	J:Rossa Ryan T:Simon Earle	132	—	141-34	59	74	66	28d	—	—	-15	9.9	0.56/1	9/4 31%
Won three of her last six which counts for a lot at Class 6 level
5 (9)	Fravanco Chestnut J:Daniel Muscutt T:Michael Madgwick	J:Daniel Muscutt T:Michael Madgwick	133	—	4972-2	60	74	58	42d	—	—	-4	11.9	1.25/1	5/1 17%
High marks for consistency and very much bumped into one over C&D six weeks ago
9 (6)	Devizes Bay J:Sean Levey T:Pat Phelan	J:Sean Levey T:Pat Phelan	130	—	-06755	57	77	60	28d	—	—	-7	5.4	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Same mark as when winning this last year and could be poised for a repeat
3 (7)	Mr Boson Chestnut J:Oisin Murphy T:Hughie Morrison	J:Oisin Murphy T:Hughie Morrison	134	ht	0-8627	61	74	59	39d	—	—	-6	6.1	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Well capable of taking this but did check out quickly last time
2 (3)	Mrs Twig Grey J:Lewis Edmunds T:William Muir & Chris Grassick	J:Lewis Edmunds T:William Muir & Chris Grassick	135	—	34676-	62	73	40	190d	—	—	-4	6.5	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Probably up to taking a race of this nature but has a 190-day break to overcome
4 (8)	Beau Vintage Bay J:Jack Mitchell T:Tom Clover	J:Jack Mitchell T:Tom Clover	133	tb	580-39	60	73	62	61d	—	—	-3	4.6	3.00/1	12/1 8%
One good run and one bad run over 1m4f; risky
11 (10)	Big Jimbo Chestnut J:Cieren Fallon T:Gary Moore	J:Cieren Fallon T:Gary Moore	127	p	61024-	54	73	45	152d	—	—	+3	9.2	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Has the form to play a part if fully tuned up
8 (5)	Churchill Rose Bay J:Kieran Shoemark T:Charlie Fellowes	J:Kieran Shoemark T:Charlie Fellowes	130	—	31628-	57	70	57	142d	—	—	+5	10.2	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Win and second in last four starts and other two runs weren't bad
10 (11)	Asense Bay J:Anna Gibson(7) T:Gary Moore	J:Anna Gibson(7) T:Gary Moore	127	p	1118-4	54	72	50	34d	—	—	-1	1.9	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Turf hat-trick last summer/autumn and return fourth at Lingfield was pleasing
7 (1)	Be Fair Bay J:Callum Shepherd T:Andy Irvine	J:Callum Shepherd T:Andy Irvine	131	—	76122-	58	71	-	403d	—	—	+13	16.3	10.00/1	40/1 2%
In good form when last seen over a year ago; highly likely best watched for new yard here
13 (12)	Alioski Bay J:Kieran O'Neill T:Gary Brown	J:Kieran O'Neill T:Gary Brown	119	tp	7-5573	46	72	56	35d	—	—	-2	0.7	8.25/1	33/1 3%
No forlorn hope on his course third five weeks ago but qualifies for 0-50s
1 (2)	Red Royalist Bay J:Harry Davies T:Mike Murphy & Michael Keady	J:Harry Davies T:Mike Murphy & Michael Keady	136	tp	707-57	63	73	56	56d	—	—	+1	4	10.00/1	40/1 2%
10yo is on a good mark but he was when midfield at best in three AW starts this winter
12 (13)	Cloudy Rose Chestnut J:Mikkel Mortensen(7) T:John Berry	J:Mikkel Mortensen(7) T:John Berry	123	—	79644-	50	71	-	183d	—	—	-1	0.5	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Rather watch in this AW contest for all she probably won't be lacking for fitness

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Nivelle's Magic	9/4	9/4	9/4	9/4	9/4
Fravanco	5/1	5/1	5/1	4/1	9/2
Devizes	11/2	11/2	6/1	11/2	11/2
Mr Boson	11/2	6/1	11/2	11/2	6/1
Mrs Twig	7/1	8/1	15/2	13/2	15/2
Beau Vintage	9/1	10/1	12/1	9/1	11/1
Big Jimbo	14/1	14/1	16/1	11/1	12/1
Churchill Rose	22/1	22/1	20/1	22/1	20/1
Asense	33/1	28/1	28/1	25/1	28/1
Be Fair	40/1	33/1	25/1	25/1	28/1
Alioski	33/1	33/1	28/1	28/1	33/1
Red Royalist	40/1	28/1	28/1	28/1	28/1
Cloudy Rose	50/1	40/1	40/1	50/1	40/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Be Fair

16.3

OR: 2 Form: 13.5 Odds: 0.8

40/1

2nd

Fravanco

11.9

OR: 2.5 Form: 5 Odds: 4.4

5/1

3rd

Churchill Rose

10.2

OR: 1.8 Form: 7.1 Odds: 1.4

22/1

Nivelle's Magic

9.9

OR: 2.3 Form: 0 Odds: 7.6

9/4

Big Jimbo

9.2

OR: 1 Form: 6.5 Odds: 1.7

16/1

Mrs Twig

6.5

OR: 3 Form: 0.6 Odds: 2.9

8/1

Mr Boson

6.1

OR: 2.8 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

6/1

Devizes

5.4

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

6/1

Beau Vintage

4.6

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

12/1

Red Royalist

OR: 3.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

40/1

Asense

1.9

OR: 1 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

33/1

Alioski

0.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

33/1

Cloudy Rose

0.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

50/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Red Royalist	63	73	56
Mrs Twig	62	73	40
Mr Boson	61	74	59
Fravanco	60	74	58
Beau Vintage	60	73	62
Nivelle's Magic	59	74	66
Be Fair	58	71	—
Devizes	57	77	60
Churchill Rose	57	70	57
Big Jimbo	54	73	45
Asense	54	72	50
Cloudy Rose	50	71	—
Alioski	46	72	56

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Nivelle's Magic	28d ago	Fit
Devizes	28d ago	Fit
Asense	34d ago	Fit
Alioski	35d ago	Fit
Mr Boson	39d ago	Fit
Fravanco	42d ago	Fit
Red Royalist	56d ago	Fresh
Beau Vintage	61d ago	Fresh
Churchill Rose	142d ago	Long break
Big Jimbo	152d ago	Long break
Cloudy Rose	183d ago	Long break
Mrs Twig	190d ago	Long break
Be Fair	403d ago	Long break