On Course Values Online With DragonBet Novices' Handicap Hurdle

Chepstow

16:40

Date 2024-04-13

Distance 2m3f100y

Class Class 5

Going Good To Soft

Type Hurdle

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £3,248

Runners (16)

EW Terms: 4 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
10	Goguenard Bay J:Kielan Woods T:D J Jeffreys	J:Kielan Woods T:D J Jeffreys	152	—	0-1121	84	99	91	33d	—	—	-7	15.2	0.63/1	5/2 29%
Improving 8yo who is 3-4 since switched to handicaps; likely to give this a good shot
1	Fresh Speculation Bay J:Alice Stevens(5) T:Henry Daly	J:Alice Stevens(5) T:Henry Daly	168	—	65353	100	101	67	59d	—	—	+8	20.6	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Placed on handicap debut at Hereford in February; useful 5lb claimer booked today
3	Shuil Ceoil Chestnut J:Joe Anderson(5) T:Neil Mulholland	J:Joe Anderson(5) T:Neil Mulholland	167	h	-U124P	99	106	93	34d	—	—	+9	18.5	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Dug deep to prevail at Exeter in December but has suffered a dip in form lately
9	Express Surprise Bay J:Richard Patrick T:Clive Boultbee-Brooks	J:Richard Patrick T:Clive Boultbee-Brooks	157	—	2-55U3	89	106	79	23d	—	—	+7	15.8	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Has shown promise in 2m novice hurdles and today's step up in trip ought to suit
4	J'Habite En France Bay J:Jack Quinlan T:Ben Case	J:Jack Quinlan T:Ben Case	165	t	2-F2U4	97	101	56	34d	—	—	+9	17.6	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Ran well for a long way when fourth of 13 on handicap debut at Warwick; could have a say
2	Love Of Neymore Chestnut J:Charlie Price(3) T:Robbie Llewellyn	J:Charlie Price(3) T:Robbie Llewellyn	168	—	89/P43	100	97	79	19d	—	—	+8	14.1	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Made the frame in her last two qualifying races and can improve again in handicaps
6	River Voyage Bay J:Paul O'Brien T:Rebecca Curtis	J:Paul O'Brien T:Rebecca Curtis	163	—	41-6P3	95	97	47	27d	—	—	+7	12.9	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Struggled on first two hurdling starts but last month's run here was much more encouraging
14	Just Aidan Bay J:Ben Poste T:Harriet Dickin	J:Ben Poste T:Harriet Dickin	150	—	-96653	82	101	86	17d	—	—	+7	12.4	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Beaten about 29l when third of 11 on handicap debut but travelled well for a long way
7	Getuptheyard Bay J:David Noonan T:Nigel Hawke	J:David Noonan T:Nigel Hawke	161	t	489648	93	99	93	33d	—	—	+8	12	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Very respectable fourth on handicap debut; ran in snatches when below that form last time
5	Kosasiempre Bay J:Ciaran Gethings T:Stuart Edmunds	J:Ciaran Gethings T:Stuart Edmunds	165	t	5-748P	97	95	76	40d	—	—	+9	12.6	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Dropped out tamely on handicap debut; had wind op since; tongue-tie added
8	Inebranlable Bay J:Lorcan Williams T:Ben Clarke	J:Lorcan Williams T:Ben Clarke	160	t	8-8408	92	100	86	77d	—	—	+8	11.3	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Well beaten on handicap debut in January; moves back up from 2m here; improvement needed
15	Citizen Jane Bay J:Ned Fox(5) T:Ryan Potter	J:Ned Fox(5) T:Ryan Potter	142	—	545079	74	102	69	17d	—	—	+5	6.5	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Soundly beaten all three starts for new yard this year; of interest only if market speaks
13	Howdy Partner Bay J:Robert Williams(3) T:Nikki Evans	J:Robert Williams(3) T:Nikki Evans	150	t	6/U-9F	82	-	25	72d	—	—	+7	8.5	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Still in contention when falling last time but now 0-7 over hurdles; others preferred
NR	Wonderweasle Bay J:TBC T:Tim Vaughan	J: T:Tim Vaughan	151	—	545831	83	105	73	13d	—	—	—	20.4	—	—
Came good on heavy ground at Ffos Las a fortnight ago; open to further progress
NR	Military Tycoon Bay J:TBC T:Neil Mulholland	J: T:Neil Mulholland	150	p	974	92	99	45	27d	—	—	—	10.5	—	—
Fairly useful Flat racer; of interest off lowly mark on handicap hurdle debut
NR	Captain Copper Chestnut J:TBC T:Ryan Potter	J: T:Ryan Potter	142	t	905P8P	74	99	55	22d	—	—	—	6	—	—
Chase debutant; poor claims on his point/hurdles form

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Goguenard	5/2	5/2	5/2	5/2	5/2
Fresh Speculation	5/1	5/1	5/1	5/1	5/1
Shuil Ceoil	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2
Express Surprise	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2
J'Habite En France	8/1	8/1	8/1	8/1	8/1
Love Of Neymore	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
River Voyage	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Just Aidan	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1
Getuptheyard	16/1	16/1	16/1	16/1	16/1
Kosasiempre	22/1	22/1	22/1	22/1	22/1
Inebranlable	25/1	25/1	25/1	25/1	25/1
Citizen Jane	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1
Howdy Partner	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Fresh Speculation

20.6

OR: 12.5 Form: 4.5 Odds: 3.6

5/1

2nd

Wonderweasle

20.4

OR: 8.3 Form: 12.1 Odds: 0

—

3rd

Shuil Ceoil

18.5

OR: 12.3 Form: 3.7 Odds: 2.5

15/2

J'Habite En France

17.6

OR: 11.8 Form: 3.5 Odds: 2.4

8/1

Express Surprise

15.8

OR: 9.8 Form: 3.5 Odds: 2.5

15/2

Goguenard

15.2

OR: 8.5 Form: 0 Odds: 6.7

5/2

Love Of Neymore

14.1

OR: 12.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

12/1

River Voyage

12.9

OR: 11.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

12/1

Kosasiempre

12.6

OR: 11.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

22/1

Just Aidan

12.4

OR: 8 Form: 3 Odds: 1.4

14/1

Getuptheyard

OR: 10.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

16/1

Inebranlable

11.3

OR: 10.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

25/1

Military Tycoon

10.5

OR: 10.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Howdy Partner

8.5

OR: 8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

40/1

Citizen Jane

6.5

OR: 6 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

40/1

Captain Copper

OR: 6 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Fresh Speculation	100	101	67
Love Of Neymore	100	97	79
Shuil Ceoil	99	106	93
J'Habite En France	97	101	56
Kosasiempre	97	95	76
River Voyage	95	97	47
Getuptheyard	93	99	93
Inebranlable	92	100	86
Military Tycoon	92	99	45
Express Surprise	89	106	79
Goguenard	84	99	91
Wonderweasle	83	105	73
Just Aidan	82	101	86
Howdy Partner	82	—	25
Citizen Jane	74	102	69
Captain Copper	74	99	55

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Wonderweasle	13d ago	Quick return
Just Aidan	17d ago	Fit
Citizen Jane	17d ago	Fit
Love Of Neymore	19d ago	Fit
Captain Copper	22d ago	Fit
Express Surprise	23d ago	Fit
River Voyage	27d ago	Fit
Military Tycoon	27d ago	Fit
Goguenard	33d ago	Fit
Getuptheyard	33d ago	Fit
Shuil Ceoil	34d ago	Fit
J'Habite En France	34d ago	Fit
Kosasiempre	40d ago	Fit
Fresh Speculation	59d ago	Fresh
Howdy Partner	72d ago	Fresh
Inebranlable	77d ago	Fresh

Pace Profile

Horse	Running Style
Goguenard	Prominent
Kosasiempre	Hold Up

Inferred from horse comments. 2 of 16 runners classified.