Connaught Access Flooring Abernant Stakes (Group 3)

Newmarket

15:00

Date 2024-04-18

Distance 6f

Class Class 1

Going Good

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £48,204

Runners (14)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
9 (2)	Shouldvebeenaring Bay J:Sean Levey T:Richard Hannon	J:Sean Levey T:Richard Hannon	135	—	9423-3	113	122	110	40d	—	—	+6	24.2	0.80/1	16/5 24%
Tough colt who has Group 1 form; major contender with AW reappearance under his belt
3 (3)	Marshman Bay J:Sam James T:K R Burke	J:Sam James T:K R Burke	135	ht	5378-2	108	119	100	26d	—	—	+10	23.5	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Should build on Doncaster reappearance effort, with fitting of hood a likely plus
10 (12)	Spycatcher Bay J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	135	—	21233-	111	122	106	180d	—	—	+20	29.5	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Has smart form; clear possibilities granted ideal ground (best on soft)
4 (7)	Mill Stream Bay J:David Egan T:Jane Chapple-Hyam	J:David Egan T:Jane Chapple-Hyam	135	—	21168-	109	121	107	180d	—	—	+18	26.1	2.00/1	8/1 11%
May still have further progress in him; interesting back down in class
1 (11)	Commanche Falls Brown J:Connor Beasley T:Michael Dods	J:Connor Beasley T:Michael Dods	135	p	11412-	112	124	98	194d	—	—	+27	34.6	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Close second in this race 12 months ago; consistent afterwards; solid claims
7 (13)	Run To Freedom Bay J:Trevor Whelan T:Henry Candy	J:Trevor Whelan T:Henry Candy	135	p	19205-	116	123	102	180d	—	—	+17	22.6	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Twice runner-up at Group 1 level; leading player on ratings, back down in grade
14 (1)	Makarova Bay J:William Buick T:Ed Walker	J:William Buick T:Ed Walker	132	tp	24466-	107	117	108	180d	—	—	+11	16.9	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Useful and consistent filly; drops back in class; likely to go well
2 (5)	Garrus Grey J:Ryan Moore T:Charles Hills	J:Ryan Moore T:Charles Hills	135	—	42280-	108	118	103	194d	—	—	+15	19.9	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Won this contest last year; now an 8yo in a deeper renewal but can't be dismissed
12 (8)	Tiber Flow br/gr J:Tom Marquand T:William Haggas	J:Tom Marquand T:William Haggas	135	—	/4213-	110	122	103	285d	—	—	+24	28.9	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Return to 6f is ideal but he is more productive on AW; only 1-7 on turf
5 (9)	Mitbaahy Bay J:Jamie Spencer T:Charles Hills	J:Jamie Spencer T:Charles Hills	135	—	/5881-	109	121	98	256d	—	—	+23	25.5	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Listed winner on final start for Roger Varian; something to prove over a stiff 6f
6 (10)	Popmaster Grey J:Billy Loughnane T:Ed Walker	J:Billy Loughnane T:Ed Walker	135	—	02212-	109	120	91	194d	—	—	+28	31.6	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Better than ever in 7f races the last twice; not crying out for return to 6f
13 (6)	Washington Heights Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Kevin Ryan	J:Tom Eaves T:Kevin Ryan	135	—	22441-	104	114	89	214d	—	—	+24	26.6	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Listed winner in Sweden last time out; bottom of this pack on ratings
8 (4)	Saint Lawrence Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:Archie Watson	J:Hollie Doyle T:Archie Watson	135	b	01390-	108	120	105	180d	—	—	+17	19.6	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Finished behind several of these rivals the last twice; not the percentage call
11 (14)	Streets Of Gold Bay J:Charles Bishop T:Eve Johnson Houghton	J:Charles Bishop T:Eve Johnson Houghton	135	—	63305-	107	114	92	236d	—	—	+15	17.1	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Exposed now and faces a difficult task on seasonal debut

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Shouldvebeenaring	16/5	16/5	16/5	16/5	16/5
Marshman	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2
Spycatcher	7/1	7/1	7/1	7/1	7/1
Mill Stream	8/1	8/1	8/1	8/1	8/1
Commanche Falls	9/1	9/1	9/1	9/1	9/1
Run To Freedom	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Makarova	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Garrus	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1
Tiber Flow	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1
Mitbaahy	25/1	25/1	25/1	25/1	25/1
Popmaster	22/1	22/1	22/1	22/1	22/1
Washington Heights	33/1	33/1	33/1	33/1	33/1
Saint Lawrence	33/1	33/1	33/1	33/1	33/1
Streets Of Gold	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Commanche Falls

34.6

OR: 15.5 Form: 17 Odds: 2.1

9/1

2nd

Popmaster

31.6

OR: 14.8 Form: 16 Odds: 0.9

22/1

3rd

Spycatcher

29.5

OR: 15.3 Form: 11.6 Odds: 2.7

7/1

Tiber Flow

28.9

OR: 15 Form: 12.5 Odds: 1.4

14/1

Washington Heights

26.6

OR: 13.5 Form: 12.5 Odds: 0.6

33/1

Mill Stream

26.1

OR: 14.8 Form: 9 Odds: 2.4

8/1

Mitbaahy

25.5

OR: 14.8 Form: 10 Odds: 0.8

25/1

Shouldvebeenaring

24.2

OR: 15.8 Form: 3 Odds: 5.4

16/5

Marshman

23.5

OR: 14.5 Form: 5 Odds: 4

9/2

Run To Freedom

22.6

OR: 16.5 Form: 4.5 Odds: 1.6

12/1

Garrus

19.9

OR: 14.5 Form: 4 Odds: 1.4

14/1

Saint Lawrence

19.6

OR: 14.5 Form: 4.5 Odds: 0.6

33/1

Streets Of Gold

17.1

OR: 14.3 Form: 2.4 Odds: 0.5

40/1

Makarova

16.9

OR: 14.3 Form: 1 Odds: 1.6

12/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Run To Freedom	116	123	102
Shouldvebeenaring	113	122	110
Commanche Falls	112	124	98
Spycatcher	111	122	106
Tiber Flow	110	122	103
Mill Stream	109	121	107
Mitbaahy	109	121	98
Popmaster	109	120	91
Marshman	108	119	100
Garrus	108	118	103
Saint Lawrence	108	120	105
Makarova	107	117	108
Streets Of Gold	107	114	92
Washington Heights	104	114	89

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Marshman	26d ago	Fit
Shouldvebeenaring	40d ago	Fit
Spycatcher	180d ago	Long break
Mill Stream	180d ago	Long break
Run To Freedom	180d ago	Long break
Makarova	180d ago	Long break
Saint Lawrence	180d ago	Long break
Commanche Falls	194d ago	Long break
Garrus	194d ago	Long break
Popmaster	194d ago	Long break
Washington Heights	214d ago	Long break
Streets Of Gold	236d ago	Long break
Mitbaahy	256d ago	Long break
Tiber Flow	285d ago	Long break