Toals Bookmakers Handicap Hurdle – Downpatrick

Downpatrick

17:50

Toals Bookmakers Handicap Hurdle

Date 2024-04-26

Distance 2m7f55y

Class

Going Good

Type Hurdle

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize €5,900

Runners (14)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
5	Surf Club Bay J:Paul Townend T:W P Mullins	J:Paul Townend T:W P Mullins	164	t	355631	98	108	77	4d	—	—	-2	36.6	0.28/1	11/10 48%
Much improved to win over fences at Tramore four days ago on good ground; big player
8	Jacenry Bay J:Ben Harvey T:D Harvey	J:Ben Harvey T:D Harvey	162	—	000612	96	105	99	12d	—	—	+14	27.1	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Won at Down Royal over 2m4f and a solid second there since; up another 2lb but go well
6	Solly Attwell Bay J:Jack Kennedy T:Cian Collins	J:Jack Kennedy T:Cian Collins	163	—	750027	97	100	91	22d	—	—	+7	18.3	1.50/1	6/1 14%
A bit disappointing when fancied at Naas but steps up in trip and Kennedy stays aboard
11	Stockdale Grey J:Tom Harney(7) T:Patrick Eugene Turley	J:Tom Harney(7) T:Patrick Eugene Turley	155	—	/82554	89	107	92	12d	—	—	+5	13.8	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Decent efforts on three of last four runs; needs a bit more but could be involved
3	Custers Mistake Bay J:Mr D McGill(7) T:Ross Tumilty	J:Mr D McGill(7) T:Ross Tumilty	164	tp	6362P0	98	105	99	79d	—	—	+9	16	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Longstanding maiden has been poor the last twice but better ground can help
7	Dubai Clover Bay J:Kieren Buckley T:Ian Patrick Donoghue	J:Kieren Buckley T:Ian Patrick Donoghue	162	—	485-U6	96	95	-	—	—	—	+8	12.9	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Showed some ability in maidens; yard in tremendous form and respected even after absence
4	Gaye Winnie Bay J:Jordan Gainford T:Gordon Elliott	J:Jordan Gainford T:Gordon Elliott	164	—	-31597	98	103	65	168d	—	—	+13	16.5	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Maiden winner over shorter here last year; held in handicaps after and lacks a recent run
10	Doyen Flyer Bay J:Carl Millar(7) T:James M Barcoe	J:Carl Millar(7) T:James M Barcoe	159	—	605487	93	97	67	5d	—	—	+9	11.5	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Best maiden hurdle run came at Tramore five days ago; of some interest on handicap bow
1	True Destiny Chestnut J:Simon Torrens T:Noel C Kelly	J:Simon Torrens T:Noel C Kelly	168	—	P0-126	102	107	61	260d	—	—	+12	13.5	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Both hurdle wins have been at Sligo; makes debut for new yard after a break
2	Gamigin Bay J:Jody McGarvey T:Noel C Kelly	J:Jody McGarvey T:Noel C Kelly	166	p	391130	100	106	96	12d	—	—	+21	23.1	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Two wins and a fine 3rd place but was poor last time; chance if bouncing back
9	Townhill Penny Bay J:Sam Ewing T:Gordon Elliott	J:Sam Ewing T:Gordon Elliott	162	p	00P55P	96	103	23	197d	—	—	+10	12	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Sole win came over 2m6f here; modest chasing effort when last seen; back after a break
12	Ballycairn Bay J:J J Slevin T:Mrs Caroline McCaldin	J:J J Slevin T:Mrs Caroline McCaldin	150	—	3/0667	84	86	40	12d	—	—	+10	11	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Well beaten in three handicaps lately and tumbling down weights; not easy to fancy
13	Mosaaheb Chestnut J:Richard Condon(5) T:John Joseph Hanlon	J:Richard Condon(5) T:John Joseph Hanlon	147	p	4-6P07	81	106	60	—	—	—	+7	8.1	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Maiden under all codes was well beaten on recent Flat runs; minor shout on best jumps form
NR	Eltico Bay J:TBC T:James H Black	J: T:James H Black	146	—	7/0-P8	80	98	-	94d	—	—	—	7.5	—	—
Has been unplaced on all 12 starts and not easy to make a case for

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Surf Club	11/10	11/10	11/10	11/10	11/10
Jacenry	5/1	5/1	5/1	5/1	5/1
Solly Attwell	6/1	6/1	6/1	6/1	6/1
Stockdale	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2
Custers Mistake	10/1	10/1	10/1	10/1	10/1
Dubai Clover	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1
Gaye Winnie	22/1	22/1	22/1	22/1	22/1
Doyen Flyer	25/1	25/1	25/1	25/1	25/1
True Destiny	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1
Gamigin	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1
Townhill Penny	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1
Ballycairn	50/1	50/1	50/1	50/1	50/1
Mosaaheb	50/1	50/1	50/1	50/1	50/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Surf Club

36.6

OR: 12 Form: 12.1 Odds: 12.5

11/10

2nd

Jacenry

27.1

OR: 11.5 Form: 12 Odds: 3.6

5/1

3rd

Gamigin

23.1

OR: 12.5 Form: 10.1 Odds: 0.5

40/1

Solly Attwell

18.3

OR: 11.8 Form: 3.5 Odds: 3.1

6/1

Gaye Winnie

16.5

OR: 12 Form: 3.6 Odds: 0.9

22/1

Custers Mistake

OR: 12 Form: 2.1 Odds: 1.9

10/1

Stockdale

13.8

OR: 9.8 Form: 1.5 Odds: 2.5

15/2

True Destiny

13.5

OR: 13 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

40/1

Dubai Clover

12.9

OR: 11.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

14/1

Townhill Penny

OR: 11.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

40/1

Doyen Flyer

11.5

OR: 10.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

25/1

Ballycairn

OR: 8.5 Form: 2.1 Odds: 0.4

50/1

Mosaaheb

8.1

OR: 7.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

50/1

Eltico

7.5

OR: 7.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
True Destiny	102	107	61
Gamigin	100	106	96
Surf Club	98	108	77
Custers Mistake	98	105	99
Gaye Winnie	98	103	65
Solly Attwell	97	100	91
Jacenry	96	105	99
Dubai Clover	96	95	—
Townhill Penny	96	103	23
Doyen Flyer	93	97	67
Stockdale	89	107	92
Ballycairn	84	86	40
Mosaaheb	81	106	60
Eltico	80	98	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Surf Club	4d ago	Quick return
Doyen Flyer	5d ago	Quick return
Jacenry	12d ago	Quick return
Stockdale	12d ago	Quick return
Gamigin	12d ago	Quick return
Ballycairn	12d ago	Quick return
Solly Attwell	22d ago	Fit
Custers Mistake	79d ago	Fresh
Eltico	94d ago	Long break
Gaye Winnie	168d ago	Long break
Townhill Penny	197d ago	Long break
True Destiny	260d ago	Long break
Dubai Clover	—	—
Mosaaheb	—	—