Naas Racecourse Handicap (Div II) – Ascot

Ascot

16:00

Naas Racecourse Handicap (Div II)

Date 2024-05-01

Distance 5f

Class Class 4

Going Good To Soft

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £7,851

Runners (9)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
9 (5)	Juicy Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:Richard Spencer	J:Hollie Doyle T:Richard Spencer	128	—	1-24	78	99	-	87d	—	—	+2	19	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Luckless run on her handicap debut in February; unexposed; respected on turf debut
8 (2)	Kuwait City Bay J:Jim Crowley T:John Butler	J:Jim Crowley T:John Butler	129	—	0829-1	79	102	86	18d	—	—	+6	21.7	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Hold-up sprinter who won at Yarmouth 18 days ago; reliant on a strong early pace
7 (1)	Brave Nation Bay J:Hector Crouch T:Michael Bell	J:Hector Crouch T:Michael Bell	130	h	70094-	80	93	84	207d	—	—	-3	11.5	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Ended 2023 with an eyecatching C&D effort; well handicapped; hood should help; contender
5 (3)	Fair Wind Grey J:Richard Kingscote T:Owen Burrows	J:Richard Kingscote T:Owen Burrows	132	h	14201-	82	100	87	198d	—	—	+13	26.5	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Ended 2023 with a fine win at Windsor (5f, soft); can do better this year; considered
3 (9)	Lil Guff Bay J:William Buick T:Daniel & Claire Kubler	J:William Buick T:Daniel & Claire Kubler	134	—	224-78	84	99	34	12d	—	—	-1	12.1	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Not seen to best effect this year but back to last winning mark; capable of a big run
4 (8)	Change Sings Bay J:George Downing T:Eve Johnson Houghton	J:George Downing T:Eve Johnson Houghton	132	—	13115-	82	97	62	182d	—	—	+16	25.4	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Dam got faster with age; not fully exposed; slow ground a query (all three wins on AW)
6 (7)	Thunder Star Bay J:Tom Marquand T:Jessica Macey	J:Tom Marquand T:Jessica Macey	130	—	1919-3	80	97	76	22d	—	—	+5	12.7	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Three wins last summer and she made a pleasing return at Thirsk; each-way shout
2 (4)	Isle Of Lismore Bay J:Kieran Shoemark T:Robert Cowell	J:Kieran Shoemark T:Robert Cowell	135	—	219-33	85	97	85	15d	—	—	+4	10.7	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Two solid efforts this year, latterly in a better race at Newmarket; each-way shout
NR (6)	Jumbeau Bay J:TBC T:Tom Clover	J: T:Tom Clover	135	—	22325-	85	98	79	237d	—	—	—	16.3	—	—
Makes her return with a rare 5f run and has something to prove on slower than good

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Juicy	4/1	4/1	4/1	7/2	7/2
Kuwait City	9/2	9/2	4/1	9/2	4/1
Brave Nation	5/1	5/1	5/1	9/2	5/1
Fair Wind	5/1	11/2	11/2	11/2	11/2
Lil Guff	6/1	11/2	11/2	6/1	11/2
Change Sings	8/1	8/1	8/1	8/1	15/2
Thunder Star	10/1	9/1	9/1	10/1	9/1
Isle Of Lismore	11/1	11/1	11/1	11/1	11/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Fair Wind

26.5

OR: 8 Form: 14.5 Odds: 4

11/2

2nd

Change Sings

25.4

OR: 8 Form: 14.9 Odds: 2.5

8/1

3rd

Kuwait City

21.7

OR: 7.3 Form: 10 Odds: 4.4

9/2

Juicy

OR: 7 Form: 7 Odds: 5

4/1

Jumbeau

16.3

OR: 8.8 Form: 7.5 Odds: 0

—

Thunder Star

12.7

OR: 7.5 Form: 3 Odds: 2.2

10/1

Lil Guff

12.1

OR: 8.5 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

6/1

Brave Nation

11.5

OR: 7.5 Form: 0 Odds: 4

5/1

Isle Of Lismore

10.7

OR: 8.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

11/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Isle Of Lismore	85	97	85
Jumbeau	85	98	79
Lil Guff	84	99	34
Fair Wind	82	100	87
Change Sings	82	97	62
Brave Nation	80	93	84
Thunder Star	80	97	76
Kuwait City	79	102	86
Juicy	78	99	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Lil Guff	12d ago	Quick return
Isle Of Lismore	15d ago	Fit
Kuwait City	18d ago	Fit
Thunder Star	22d ago	Fit
Juicy	87d ago	Fresh
Change Sings	182d ago	Long break
Fair Wind	198d ago	Long break
Brave Nation	207d ago	Long break
Jumbeau	237d ago	Long break