Blake Morgan Handicap – Chepstow

Chepstow

19:40

Blake Morgan Handicap

Date 2024-05-14

Distance 6f16y

Class Class 5

Going Soft

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £3,716

Winning Time 1m 16.73s (slow by 8.73s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Hiatus (IRE) Jack Gilligan · Conrad Allen	7/2	Won
2nd	Connie's Rose (GB) Hollie Doyle · Grace Harris	3/1F	1.5
3rd	Local Bay (GB) William Carson · Tony Carroll	33/1	1.5
4th	Beyond Equal (GB) Callum Shepherd · Stuart Kittow	5/1	1.25
5th	Some Nightmare (IRE) Rossa Ryan · John O'Shea	4/1	1
6th	Savannah Smiles (IRE) Callum Hutchinson · Grace Harris	33/1	1.75
7th	Airshow (GB) Oliver Searle · Rod Millman	8/1	4.5
8th	Concierge (IRE) Nicola Currie · Michael Attwater	33/1	2.25
9th	Heartrate (IRE) Billy Loughnane · Mark Loughnane	25/1	18

Runners (13)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
4 (2)	Hiatus Bay J:Jack Gilligan T:Conrad Allen	J:Jack Gilligan T:Conrad Allen	134	—	417352	69	82	72	17d	—	—	-1	19	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Better last time; consistent enough and plenty of rain would being him into the equation
7 (4)	Connie's Rose Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:Grace Harris	J:Hollie Doyle T:Grace Harris	132	—	16-282	67	87	71	9d	—	—	-10	10	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Four-time course winner who's fine on any ground and arrives in good form; should go well
10 (9)	Some Nightmare Bay J:Rossa Ryan T:John O'Shea	J:Rossa Ryan T:John O'Shea	130	p	47-965	65	88	42	16d	—	—	-7	8.2	1.25/1	5/1 17%
On a handy mark now and the headgear goes back on; it's hard to find many negatives
3 (13)	King Of Scotia Bay J:Saffie Osborne T:Jamie Osborne	J:Saffie Osborne T:Jamie Osborne	134	—	469-95	69	82	79	117d	—	—	-3	7.8	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Has done his racing for this yard over 7f-1m2f; may be done for toe back from a break
2 (7)	Beyond Equal Bay J:Callum Shepherd T:Stuart Kittow	J:Callum Shepherd T:Stuart Kittow	134	—	36-564	69	86	79	22d	—	—	-4	8.1	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Well handicapped and has just found things conspiring against him lately; one to consider
1 (10)	Airshow Chestnut J:Oliver Searle(7) T:Rod Millman	J:Oliver Searle(7) T:Rod Millman	135	hp	641266	70	85	34	16d	—	—	+3	13.4	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Harder to win with now but goes well here and remains capable at this level
8 (8)	Heartrate Chestnut J:Billy Loughnane T:Mark Loughnane	J:Billy Loughnane T:Mark Loughnane	131	p	93-380	66	83	79	17d	—	—	0	5.4	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Inconsistent; he was eased off when a remote last behind Hiatus last time
13 (3)	Savannah Smiles Bay J:Callum Hutchinson(3) T:Grace Harris	J:Callum Hutchinson(3) T:Grace Harris	121	p	241148	56	84	62	45d	—	—	+6	10.7	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Three-time AW winner who hasn't achieved much in six turf runs
5 (5)	Concierge Brown J:Nicola Currie T:Michael Attwater	J:Nicola Currie T:Michael Attwater	132	p	31180-	67	84	64	209d	—	—	+10	13.7	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Returns from seven months off 5lb above his last winning mark; would be suited by any rain
12 (12)	Local Bay Brown J:William Carson T:Tony Carroll	J:William Carson T:Tony Carroll	122	—	6-4787	57	83	32	13d	—	—	0	2.5	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Does most racing at 7f-1m and has run only once in a sprint; hard to fancy
NR (1)	Jax Edge Bay J:Gina Mangan(3) T:Christopher Mason	J:Gina Mangan(3) T:Christopher Mason	132	—	4525-7	67	85	66	22d	—	—	—	4.3	—	—
Currently 2-2 in handicaps here and won second time out last season; possibilities
NR (6)	Big Bard Bay J:Jack Doughty(7) T:Gary & Josh Moore	J:Jack Doughty(7) T:Gary & Josh Moore	130	p	17737-	65	85	78	159d	—	—	—	7.9	—	—
Nothing to suggest he's best caught fresh; interesting to see how he goes in the market
NR (11)	Vape Grey J:William Cox T:John & Rhys Flint	J:William Cox T:John & Rhys Flint	127	p	6757-7	62	82	79	132d	—	—	—	3	—	—
Won this last year and is 7lb lower tonight; needs to bounce back after a break

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Hiatus	10/3	10/3	3/1	10/3	3/1
Connie's Rose	7/2	7/2	10/3	7/2	10/3
Some Nightmare	9/2	4/1	5/1	9/2	9/2
King Of Scotia	6/1	13/2	13/2	13/2	6/1
Beyond Equal	13/2	13/2	11/2	6/1	6/1
Airshow	7/1	7/1	7/1	7/1	7/1
Heartrate	20/1	18/1	16/1	14/1	16/1
Savannah Smiles	25/1	20/1	18/1	16/1	18/1
Concierge	40/1	28/1	25/1	22/1	25/1
Local Bay	50/1	40/1	33/1	28/1	33/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Hiatus

OR: 4.8 Form: 8.5 Odds: 5.7

10/3

2nd

Concierge

13.7

OR: 4.3 Form: 8.6 Odds: 0.9

40/1

3rd

Airshow

13.4

OR: 5 Form: 5.5 Odds: 2.9

7/1

Savannah Smiles

10.7

OR: 1.5 Form: 8 Odds: 1.2

25/1

Connie's Rose

OR: 4.3 Form: 0 Odds: 5.7

7/2

Some Nightmare

8.2

OR: 3.8 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

5/1

Beyond Equal

8.1

OR: 4.8 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Big Bard

7.9

OR: 3.8 Form: 4.1 Odds: 0

—

King Of Scotia

7.8

OR: 4.8 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

13/2

Heartrate

5.4

OR: 4 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

20/1

Jax Edge

4.3

OR: 4.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Vape

OR: 3 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Local Bay

2.5

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

50/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Airshow	70	85	34
Hiatus	69	82	72
King Of Scotia	69	82	79
Beyond Equal	69	86	79
Connie's Rose	67	87	71
Concierge	67	84	64
Jax Edge	67	85	66
Heartrate	66	83	79
Some Nightmare	65	88	42
Big Bard	65	85	78
Vape	62	82	79
Local Bay	57	83	32
Savannah Smiles	56	84	62

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Connie's Rose	9d ago	Quick return
Local Bay	13d ago	Quick return
Some Nightmare	16d ago	Fit
Airshow	16d ago	Fit
Hiatus	17d ago	Fit
Heartrate	17d ago	Fit
Beyond Equal	22d ago	Fit
Jax Edge	22d ago	Fit
Savannah Smiles	45d ago	Fit
King Of Scotia	117d ago	Long break
Vape	132d ago	Long break
Big Bard	159d ago	Long break
Concierge	209d ago	Long break