Five Rivers Fostering Handicap – Doncaster

Doncaster

16:10

Five Rivers Fostering Handicap

Date 2024-06-16

Distance 7f213y

Class Class 4

Going Good To Soft

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £5,832

Runners (16)

EW Terms: 4 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
3 (5)	Great Max Bay J:David Nolan T:David O'Meara	J:David Nolan T:David O'Meara	135	—	745-76	80	95	81	28d	—	—	-5	12.5	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Promising start for new yard when sixth at Newmarket, not clearest of runs; interesting
7 (8)	Abruzzo Mia Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Michael Dods	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Michael Dods	132	—	912073	77	93	67	16d	—	—	0	18.7	1.00/1	4/1 20%
On turf for first time since 2022 when good third here 16 days ago; well in the mix
8 (7)	Archduke Ferdinand Grey J:Dale Swift T:Seb Spencer	J:Dale Swift T:Seb Spencer	132	—	846-25	77	93	57	33d	—	—	-2	10.1	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Only fifth of eight at Ayr (7f) 33 days ago; he's the sort to bounce back though
9 (12)	Al Marmar Brown J:Rowan Scott T:Gemma Tutty	J:Rowan Scott T:Gemma Tutty	132	—	138008	77	90	62	30d	—	—	0	10	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Back on track for new handler when eighth at York 30 days ago; can go well off 2lb lower
15 (4)	Ardbraccan Bay J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Michael Appleby	J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Michael Appleby	125	tp	0-1532	70	92	82	14d	—	—	-4	8.6	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Another excellent effort when Nottingham runner-up two weeks ago; not taken lightly up 1lb
14 (13)	Utilis Bay J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	127	—	6820-0	72	89	69	29d	—	—	0	7.7	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Returned from seven months off with creditable Thirsk tenth; not ruled out
16 (2)	Mickey Mongoose Bay J:Laura Coughlan(3) T:Olly Williams	J:Laura Coughlan(3) T:Olly Williams	116	—	-71046	61	92	70	18d	—	—	+1	7.7	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Below-par sixth on soft going at Beverley 18 days ago; no surprise to see him bounce back
13 (1)	Strongbowe Bay J:Sean Kirrane T:Tim Easterby	J:Sean Kirrane T:Tim Easterby	128	p	660-96	73	91	29	27d	—	—	+1	7.7	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Not discredited when last of six at Carlisle 27 days ago; shortlisted off an easing mark
1 (6)	On The River Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Harriet Bethell	J:Cam Hardie T:Harriet Bethell	137	—	8-5127	82	91	71	36d	—	—	+3	10.1	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Beat only one at Nottingham (1m) last month; he needs to get back on track
5 (14)	Society Lion Bay J:Daniel Muscutt T:Ed Dunlop	J:Daniel Muscutt T:Ed Dunlop	133	t	74-071	78	93	51	25d	—	—	+3	8.4	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Won at Yarmouth latest when able to dominate; up 5lb so more required if he's to follow up
10 (9)	Cabrillo Brown J:Jason Hart T:Ruth Carr	J:Jason Hart T:Ruth Carr	131	—	41/588	76	88	59	16d	—	—	+3	7.9	5.00/1	20/1 5%
A fair 7f Deauville winner for Andre Fabre in 2022 but yet to build on that for new yard
NR (16)	Rogue Sea Bay J:TBC T:Bryan Smart	J: T:Bryan Smart	135	—	1767-8	80	89	88	17d	—	—	—	7.5	—	—
Off eight months/gelded before last at Ripon on yard debut; can take a step forward
NR (10)	City Of York Bay J:TBC T:David Simcock	J: T:David Simcock	133	h	7-6057	78	92	54	13d	—	—	—	7	—	—
Yet to hit top form this term, only seventh at Wetherby 13 days ago; needs to bounce back
NR (3)	Lady Of Arabia Bay J:TBC T:Eve Johnson Houghton	J: T:Eve Johnson Houghton	133	—	41-130	78	90	68	46d	—	—	—	7	—	—
Ran poorly at Kempton after nine weeks off last month; others appeal more
NR (15)	Speriamo Grey J:TBC T:Philip McBride	J: T:Philip McBride	129	—	37-408	74	93	74	28d	—	—	—	6	—	—
Good eighth at Newmarket latest; back on last winning mark now so very much considered
NR (11)	Harswell Duke Bay J:TBC T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	J: T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	128	—	322598	73	92	69	1d	—	—	—	8.3	—	—
His form has really dipped so this C&D scorer needs to get back on track

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Great Max	4/1	9/2	4/1	4/1	4/1
Abruzzo Mia	4/1	4/1	4/1	10/3	4/1
Archduke Ferdinand	7/1	15/2	7/1	11/2	7/1
Al Marmar	8/1	17/2	8/1	15/2	8/1
Ardbraccan	13/2	11/2	5/1	5/1	7/1
Utilis	10/1	11/1	10/1	17/2	10/1
Mickey Mongoose	12/1	14/1	14/1	11/1	11/1
Strongbowe	14/1	11/1	11/1	10/1	12/1
On The River	11/1	11/1	11/1	10/1	11/1
Society Lion	20/1	20/1	16/1	14/1	20/1
Cabrillo	20/1	20/1	20/1	16/1	20/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Abruzzo Mia

18.7

OR: 6.8 Form: 6.5 Odds: 5.4

4/1

2nd

Great Max

12.5

OR: 7.5 Form: 0 Odds: 5

9/2

3rd

Archduke Ferdinand

10.1

OR: 6.8 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

15/2

On The River

10.1

OR: 8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

11/1

Al Marmar

OR: 6.8 Form: 0.6 Odds: 2.7

17/2

Ardbraccan

8.6

OR: 5 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

7/1

Society Lion

8.4

OR: 7 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

20/1

Harswell Duke

8.3

OR: 5.8 Form: 2.5 Odds: 0

—

Cabrillo

7.9

OR: 6.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

20/1

Utilis

7.7

OR: 5.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.2

11/1

Mickey Mongoose

7.7

OR: 2.8 Form: 3 Odds: 1.9

14/1

Strongbowe

7.7

OR: 5.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

14/1

Rogue Sea

7.5

OR: 7.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

City Of York

OR: 7 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Lady Of Arabia

OR: 7 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Speriamo

OR: 6 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
On The River	82	91	71
Great Max	80	95	81
Rogue Sea	80	89	88
Society Lion	78	93	51
City Of York	78	92	54
Lady Of Arabia	78	90	68
Abruzzo Mia	77	93	67
Archduke Ferdinand	77	93	57
Al Marmar	77	90	62
Cabrillo	76	88	59
Speriamo	74	93	74
Strongbowe	73	91	29
Harswell Duke	73	92	69
Utilis	72	89	69
Ardbraccan	70	92	82
Mickey Mongoose	61	92	70

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Harswell Duke	1d ago	Quick return
City Of York	13d ago	Quick return
Ardbraccan	14d ago	Fit
Abruzzo Mia	16d ago	Fit
Cabrillo	16d ago	Fit
Rogue Sea	17d ago	Fit
Mickey Mongoose	18d ago	Fit
Society Lion	25d ago	Fit
Strongbowe	27d ago	Fit
Great Max	28d ago	Fit
Speriamo	28d ago	Fit
Utilis	29d ago	Fit
Al Marmar	30d ago	Fit
Archduke Ferdinand	33d ago	Fit
On The River	36d ago	Fit
Lady Of Arabia	46d ago	Fresh