Race Ahead With Sage From X3Consulting Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Div I)

Newcastle (AW)

19:10

Date 2024-06-28

Distance 7f14y

Class Class 5

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,942

Winning Time 1m 27.58s (slow by 3.78s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Germanic (IRE) Tom Marquand · William Haggas	5/4F	Won
2nd	Thewind Cries Mary (IRE) Callum Rodriguez · Edward Bethell	3/1	11
3rd	Bothar (USA) Clifford Lee · K R Burke	4/1	2.25
4th	Habitual (GB) Ben Robinson · Brian Ellison	125/1	1.75
5th	Apostle (GB) Luke Morris · Sir Mark Prescott Bt	33/1	1.5
6th	Highfield Heiress (FR) James Sullivan · John & Sean Quinn	100/1	1.75
7th	Rosie Sophia (GB) Ryan Sexton · Julie Camacho	150/1	1.75
8th	Just Hot (IRE) Andrew Mullen · Iain Jardine	200/1	2.5
9th	Asclepius (IRE) Hector Crouch · Dylan Cunha	25/1	1.25

Runners (10)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
4 (1)	Germanic Chestnut J:Tom Marquand T:William Haggas	J:Tom Marquand T:William Haggas	133	—	—	-	69	-	42d	—	—	-25	11.8	0.34/1	11/8 42%
Midfield on Newbury debut, but hinted at ability and is a half-brother to three AW winners
6 (9)	Thewind Cries Mary Bay J:Callum Rodriguez T:Edward Bethell	J:Callum Rodriguez T:Edward Bethell	133	—	31	76	84	-	35d	—	—	+2	25.9	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Won at Haydock last time; three of four runnings of this have gone to a previous winner
3 (4)	Bothar Bay J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	133	—	4-5	-	81	67	61d	—	—	-14	5.7	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Ran to a similar level in two starts; gelded since and not dismissed in race lacking depth
2 (6)	Barefoot Warrior Bay J:Daniel Tudhope T:David O'Meara	J:Daniel Tudhope T:David O'Meara	133	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-11	4.4	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Makes some appeal on breeding; stable had a 3yo winning newcomer at Ripon (18-1) last week
1 (3)	Asclepius Bay J:Hector Crouch T:Dylan Cunha	J:Hector Crouch T:Dylan Cunha	133	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-2	0.8	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Bred to handle the surface and worth monitoring in the market on debut
7 (5)	Apostle Chestnut J:Luke Morris T:Sir Mark Prescott Bt	J:Luke Morris T:Sir Mark Prescott Bt	128	—	9	-	65	45	177d	—	—	-3	1	6.25/1	25/1 4%
16-1 when well held on her Kempton debut in January; improvement needed
8 (8)	Highfield Heiress Bay J:James Sullivan T:John & Sean Quinn	J:James Sullivan T:John & Sean Quinn	128	—	35	-	70	-	20d	—	—	+1	2.6	20.00/1	80/1 1%
Stepped back from a promising debut last time; half-sister to two AW winners
5 (2)	Habitual Bay J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	133	—	—	-	61	-	49d	—	—	-1	0.2	37.50/1	150/1 1%
Last of 11 on his Nottingham debut last month; probably needs more time
10 (7)	Rosie Sophia Bay J:Ryan Sexton T:Julie Camacho	J:Ryan Sexton T:Julie Camacho	128	—	8-	-	-	-	315d	—	—	-1	0.2	37.50/1	150/1 1%
Not seen since finishing a long last on her Thirsk debut last August; has had a wind op
9 (10)	Just Hot Bay J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	128	h	76	-	49	-	15d	—	—	-1	0.2	31.25/1	125/1 1%
Beaten a long way in both starts on turf; can be handicapped after this

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Germanic	11/8	11/8	11/8	11/8	11/8
Thewind Cries Mary	11/4	11/4	9/4	5/2	11/4
Bothar	10/3	7/2	10/3	3/1	10/3
Barefoot Warrior	6/1	6/1	7/1	7/1	6/1
Asclepius	28/1	28/1	28/1	28/1	28/1
Apostle	25/1	25/1	22/1	20/1	25/1
Highfield Heiress	80/1	66/1	50/1	40/1	66/1
Habitual	150/1	125/1	100/1	100/1	125/1
Rosie Sophia	150/1	100/1	80/1	100/1	100/1
Just Hot	100/1	100/1	100/1	100/1	125/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Thewind Cries Mary

25.9

OR: 6.5 Form: 12.1 Odds: 7.3

11/4

2nd

Germanic

11.8

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 11.8

11/8

3rd

Bothar

5.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 5.7

7/2

Barefoot Warrior

4.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

7/1

Highfield Heiress

2.6

OR: 0 Form: 2.1 Odds: 0.5

80/1

Apostle

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1

25/1

Asclepius

0.8

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

28/1

Habitual

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

150/1

Rosie Sophia

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

150/1

Just Hot

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

125/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Thewind Cries Mary	76	84	—
Germanic	—	69	—
Bothar	—	81	67
Barefoot Warrior	—	—	—
Asclepius	—	—	—
Apostle	—	65	45
Highfield Heiress	—	70	—
Habitual	—	61	—
Rosie Sophia	—	—	—
Just Hot	—	49	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Just Hot	15d ago	Fit
Highfield Heiress	20d ago	Fit
Thewind Cries Mary	35d ago	Fit
Germanic	42d ago	Fit
Habitual	49d ago	Fresh
Bothar	61d ago	Fresh
Apostle	177d ago	Long break
Rosie Sophia	315d ago	Long break
Barefoot Warrior	—	—
Asclepius	—	—

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 7f14y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Based on 12 draws with historical results at this course and distance.