Irish Stallion Farms EBF Cairn Rouge Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares)

Killarney

18:20

Date 2024-07-17

Distance 1m40y

Class Class 1

Going Good

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize €29,500

Runners (10)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
8 (1)	Greenfinch Bay J:Wayne Lordan T:A P O'Brien	J:Wayne Lordan T:A P O'Brien	127	—	21-443	101	109	85	21d	—	—	-6	20.8	0.75/1	3/1 25%
Not guaranteed to be suited by the drop in trip but unexposed and one for the shortlist
6 (8)	Fleur De Chine Bay J:Shane Foley T:Mrs John Harrington	J:Shane Foley T:Mrs John Harrington	127	—	3-7114	99	108	78	21d	—	—	+1	20.1	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Back to 1m here should be more suitable and she has every chance of being thereabouts
10 (5)	Sakti Bay J:Colin Keane T:G M Lyons	J:Colin Keane T:G M Lyons	127	—	222-1	103	102	97	117d	—	—	+8	29.9	0.75/1	3/1 25%
Matron Stakes entry and still unexposed; top-rated filly in this race should go close
7 (7)	Flight Of Fancy Bay J:W J Lee T:A P O'Brien	J:W J Lee T:A P O'Brien	127	—	-34201	94	101	84	10d	—	—	+16	27.4	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Decisive win in a 1m maiden at Limerick 10 days ago; could well make her presence felt
1 (3)	Adelaise Bay J:Dylan Browne McMonagle T:Joseph Patrick O'Brien	J:Dylan Browne McMonagle T:Joseph Patrick O'Brien	138	—	245-10	97	104	69	28d	—	—	+4	14.6	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Mid-division in a Royal Ascot handicap last month; each-way chance but others more likely
2 (6)	Alanya Bay J:Gary Carroll T:Thomas Gibney	J:Gary Carroll T:Thomas Gibney	135	—	30-566	96	103	70	6d	—	—	+6	13.7	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Good run at Leopardstown; could be vulnerable over the shortest trip she has tried
3 (9)	Karsavina Bay J:Mikey Sheehy T:Joseph Patrick O'Brien	J:Mikey Sheehy T:Joseph Patrick O'Brien	135	—	645-70	89	98	60	28d	—	—	+7	10.6	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Not disgraced in two handicap outings for her current trainer but has plenty to find here
5 (2)	Star Galaxy Bay J:Declan McDonogh T:Joseph Patrick O'Brien	J:Declan McDonogh T:Joseph Patrick O'Brien	135	—	315-64	92	101	60	39d	—	—	+8	11.5	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Possible career best when a decent fourth in a Navan Listed last month; more needed here
9 (10)	Harbour Gem Bay J:Chris Hayes T:D K Weld	J:Chris Hayes T:D K Weld	127	p	-27175	81	91	69	25d	—	—	+12	14.3	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Fifth in Ulster Derby; big drop back in trip here and has plenty to do on ratings
NR (4)	Kayhana Bay J:Chris Hayes T:D K Weld	J:Chris Hayes T:D K Weld	135	—	233-29	87	98	69	17d	—	—	—	9.3	—	—
Plenty to find on ratings but every chance that she could have more to offer

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Greenfinch	11/4	5/2	11/4	3/1	11/4
Fleur De Chine	7/2	7/2	10/3	7/2	7/2
Sakti	11/4	3/1	11/4	11/4	3/1
Flight Of Fancy	15/2	13/2	7/1	15/2	7/1
Adelaise	8/1	8/1	9/1	17/2	8/1
Alanya	10/1	11/1	11/1	11/1	11/1
Karsavina	33/1	25/1	28/1	28/1	28/1
Star Galaxy	28/1	28/1	28/1	25/1	28/1
Harbour Gem	50/1	50/1	50/1	50/1	50/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Sakti

29.9

OR: 13.3 Form: 10 Odds: 6.7

3/1

2nd

Flight Of Fancy

27.4

OR: 11 Form: 13.1 Odds: 3.3

15/2

3rd

Greenfinch

20.8

OR: 12.8 Form: 0 Odds: 8

3/1

Fleur De Chine

20.1

OR: 12.3 Form: 2.1 Odds: 5.7

7/2

Adelaise

14.6

OR: 11.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.9

9/1

Harbour Gem

14.3

OR: 7.8 Form: 6 Odds: 0.6

50/1

Alanya

13.7

OR: 11.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.2

11/1

Star Galaxy

11.5

OR: 10.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1

28/1

Karsavina

10.6

OR: 9.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

33/1

Kayhana

9.3

OR: 9.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Sakti	103	102	97
Greenfinch	101	109	85
Fleur De Chine	99	108	78
Adelaise	97	104	69
Alanya	96	103	70
Flight Of Fancy	94	101	84
Star Galaxy	92	101	60
Karsavina	89	98	60
Kayhana	87	98	69
Harbour Gem	81	91	69

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Alanya	6d ago	Quick return
Flight Of Fancy	10d ago	Quick return
Kayhana	17d ago	Fit
Greenfinch	21d ago	Fit
Fleur De Chine	21d ago	Fit
Harbour Gem	25d ago	Fit
Adelaise	28d ago	Fit
Karsavina	28d ago	Fit
Star Galaxy	39d ago	Fit
Sakti	117d ago	Long break