National Racehorse Week Handicap (A Jockey Club Grassroots Mile Series Qualifier) (Div I)

Carlisle

17:30

Date 2024-08-21

Distance 6f195y

Class Class 4

Going Good

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £5,496

Runners (10)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
6 (1)	Bowman Bay J:Connor Beasley T:Danny Brooke	J:Connor Beasley T:Danny Brooke	126	—	612283	71	92	76	26d	—	—	+2	19.5	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Good third of 17 in 7f York handicap 26 days ago; player off an unchanged mark
1 (2)	Redarna Chestnut J:Gina Mangan(3) T:Dianne Sayer	J:Gina Mangan(3) T:Dianne Sayer	137	p	543041	82	95	75	16d	—	—	+6	24.3	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Won over 1m here 16 days ago; took this 12 months ago so not taken lightly nudged up 1lb
2 (9)	Yermanthere Chestnut J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	135	—	8-0098	80	90	73	18d	—	—	-4	11.9	1.25/1	5/1 17%
A fair 7f winner at his best but he arrives out of sorts; others are much preferred
8 (7)	Oso Rapido Bay J:Andrew Breslin(3) T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	J:Andrew Breslin(3) T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	124	p	705062	69	97	80	14d	—	—	+2	12.8	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Returned to form in cheekpieces with Pontefract second two weeks ago; enters calculations
7 (5)	Rory Chestnut J:Amie Waugh(5) T:Jim Goldie	J:Amie Waugh(5) T:Jim Goldie	125	—	752146	70	90	80	8d	—	—	+5	14.2	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Has proved unreliable but he is holding his form well of late; he can go well again
4 (10)	Rough Diamond Bay J:Harrison Shaw T:Tristan Davidson	J:Harrison Shaw T:Tristan Davidson	129	—	058610	74	92	71	17d	—	—	+7	15.4	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Scored for Edward Lynam with Dundalk win; 11th on yard debut at Haydock; could bounce back
10 (4)	Jkr Cobbler Bay J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	117	—	179853	62	94	84	9d	—	—	+1	8.1	3.00/1	12/1 8%
In good form, third at Ayr nine days ago; this C&D winner ought to be in the shake-up
9 (3)	Phoenix Fire Bay J:Rhys Elliott(7) T:Michael Dods	J:Rhys Elliott(7) T:Michael Dods	123	p	0-0200	68	94	53	36d	—	—	0	6.2	3.50/1	14/1 7%
It's now 11 starts since his last success and comes here in poor form
3 (8)	Danielsflyer Bay J:Sean Kirrane T:David Thompson	J:Sean Kirrane T:David Thompson	133	p	111194	78	91	53	25d	—	—	+13	18.4	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Rattled off four-timer at Newcastle this winter; good fourth there latest so not ruled out
NR (6)	Carnival Zain Bay J:Aiden Brookes(3) T:Micky Hammond	J:Aiden Brookes(3) T:Micky Hammond	128	p	5-7084	73	90	67	11d	—	—	—	5.8	—	—
Back on track in first-time cheekpieces when fourth at Redcar latest; weighted to go well

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Bowman	7/2	10/3	7/2	7/2	7/2
Redarna	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2
Yermanthere	9/2	5/1	9/2	5/1	5/1
Oso Rapido	7/1	7/1	13/2	7/1	7/1
Rory	17/2	8/1	8/1	17/2	8/1
Rough Diamond	9/1	9/1	9/1	17/2	9/1
Jkr Cobbler	12/1	11/1	9/1	10/1	11/1
Phoenix Fire	14/1	14/1	12/1	14/1	14/1
Danielsflyer	20/1	18/1	18/1	18/1	18/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Redarna

24.3

OR: 8 Form: 10.9 Odds: 5.4

7/2

2nd

Bowman

19.5

OR: 5.3 Form: 9 Odds: 5.2

7/2

3rd

Danielsflyer

18.4

OR: 7 Form: 10 Odds: 1.4

20/1

Rough Diamond

15.4

OR: 6 Form: 7 Odds: 2.4

9/1

Rory

14.2

OR: 5 Form: 6.5 Odds: 2.7

17/2

Oso Rapido

12.8

OR: 4.8 Form: 5 Odds: 3.1

7/1

Yermanthere

11.9

OR: 7.5 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

5/1

Jkr Cobbler

8.1

OR: 3 Form: 3 Odds: 2.1

12/1

Phoenix Fire

6.2

OR: 4.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

14/1

Carnival Zain

5.8

OR: 5.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Redarna	82	95	75
Yermanthere	80	90	73
Danielsflyer	78	91	53
Rough Diamond	74	92	71
Carnival Zain	73	90	67
Bowman	71	92	76
Rory	70	90	80
Oso Rapido	69	97	80
Phoenix Fire	68	94	53
Jkr Cobbler	62	94	84

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Rory	8d ago	Quick return
Jkr Cobbler	9d ago	Quick return
Carnival Zain	11d ago	Quick return
Oso Rapido	14d ago	Fit
Redarna	16d ago	Fit
Rough Diamond	17d ago	Fit
Yermanthere	18d ago	Fit
Danielsflyer	25d ago	Fit
Bowman	26d ago	Fit
Phoenix Fire	36d ago	Fit