National Racehorse Week Handicap (A Jockey Club Grassroots Mile Series Qualifier) (Div II)

Carlisle

18:02

Date 2024-08-21

Distance 6f195y

Class Class 4

Going Good

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £5,496

Runners (10)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
7 (8)	Iris Dancer Bay J:Cieren Fallon T:Tristan Davidson	J:Cieren Fallon T:Tristan Davidson	125	—	517133	70	94	86	8d	—	—	+6	21.5	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Scored over 6f here in July and a good third at Hamilton eight days ago; can go well again
5 (5)	Patontheback Bay J:Mark Winn(3) T:Gemma Tutty	J:Mark Winn(3) T:Gemma Tutty	127	—	112204	72	94	89	14d	—	—	+2	15.5	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Not disgraced over 1m when Pontefract fourth latest; ought to be thereabouts back in trip
1 (3)	Kelpie Grey Grey J:Amie Waugh(5) T:Jim Goldie	J:Amie Waugh(5) T:Jim Goldie	136	—	-11126	81	96	80	76d	—	—	+11	25.3	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Not discredited back at 6f when sixth at Hamilton 76 days ago; merits consideration
3 (4)	Judgment Call Brown J:Callum Rodriguez T:Linda Perratt	J:Callum Rodriguez T:Linda Perratt	132	—	-20427	77	91	74	12d	—	—	+3	14.6	1.50/1	6/1 14%
C&D winner; last of seven at Musselburgh (7f) 12 days ago; he's the sort to bounce back
2 (9)	Abruzzo Mia Bay J:Connor Beasley T:Michael Dods	J:Connor Beasley T:Michael Dods	133	—	207361	78	92	71	35d	—	—	+10	21.8	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Got back to winning ways in 7f Thirsk h'cap last month; not taken lightly despite 2lb rise
8 (7)	Detective Bay J:Connor Murtagh T:Dianne Sayer	J:Connor Murtagh T:Dianne Sayer	122	b	020865	67	95	80	16d	—	—	-1	7.6	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Multiple course winner who hinted at a revival when fifth here 16 days ago; considered
4 (6)	Alethiometer Bay J:James Sullivan T:John & Sean Quinn	J:James Sullivan T:John & Sean Quinn	129	—	22-666	74	93	42	33d	—	—	-1	8.7	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Only sixth of seven at Pontefract latest; remains handily weighted so not written off
9 (2)	Medici Pass Chestnut J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	118	—	8-0116	63	93	61	23d	—	—	0	4.6	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Looked rusty after four months off when sixth at Ayr; well worth considering now
10 (10)	Obee Jo Bay J:Faye McManoman T:Tim Easterby	J:Faye McManoman T:Tim Easterby	116	p	-58193	61	91	84	42d	—	—	+7	12.1	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Course winner; good third of 12 in 7f Catterick handicap last month; shortlisted
6 (1)	William Dewhirst Bay J:Harrison Shaw T:Ben Haslam	J:Harrison Shaw T:Ben Haslam	125	h	16-990	70	90	48	35d	—	0W/0P 1 run	+2	6.1	5.50/1	22/1 4%
C&D winner but he comes here under a cloud; he needs to take a big step forward

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Iris Dancer	5/1	9/2	9/2	5/1	9/2
Patontheback	5/1	5/1	5/1	5/1	5/1
Kelpie Grey	5/1	5/1	5/1	5/1	5/1
Judgment Call	6/1	6/1	6/1	6/1	6/1
Abruzzo Mia	11/2	6/1	11/2	11/2	11/2
Detective	9/1	9/1	17/2	17/2	17/2
Alethiometer	8/1	17/2	8/1	17/2	8/1
Medici Pass	20/1	18/1	18/1	16/1	18/1
Obee Jo	20/1	18/1	18/1	18/1	18/1
William Dewhirst	22/1	22/1	20/1	20/1	22/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Kelpie Grey

25.3

OR: 7.8 Form: 13.5 Odds: 4

5/1

2nd

Abruzzo Mia

21.8

OR: 7 Form: 11.5 Odds: 3.3

6/1

3rd

Iris Dancer

21.5

OR: 5 Form: 12.1 Odds: 4.4

5/1

Patontheback

15.5

OR: 5.5 Form: 6 Odds: 4

5/1

Judgment Call

14.6

OR: 6.8 Form: 4.5 Odds: 3.3

6/1

Obee Jo

12.1

OR: 2.8 Form: 8 Odds: 1.4

20/1

Alethiometer

8.7

OR: 6 Form: 0 Odds: 2.7

17/2

Detective

7.6

OR: 4.3 Form: 1 Odds: 2.4

9/1

William Dewhirst

6.1

OR: 5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

22/1

Medici Pass

4.6

OR: 3.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

20/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Kelpie Grey	81	96	80
Abruzzo Mia	78	92	71
Judgment Call	77	91	74
Alethiometer	74	93	42
Patontheback	72	94	89
Iris Dancer	70	94	86
William Dewhirst	70	90	48
Detective	67	95	80
Medici Pass	63	93	61
Obee Jo	61	91	84

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Iris Dancer	8d ago	Quick return
Judgment Call	12d ago	Quick return
Patontheback	14d ago	Fit
Detective	16d ago	Fit
Medici Pass	23d ago	Fit
Alethiometer	33d ago	Fit
Abruzzo Mia	35d ago	Fit
William Dewhirst	35d ago	Fit
Obee Jo	42d ago	Fit
Kelpie Grey	76d ago	Fresh