N & L Franklin Ltd Handicap (Div I) – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

15:57

N & L Franklin Ltd Handicap (Div I)

Date 2024-08-26

Distance 6f16y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £3,873

Runners (10)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
5 (4)	Late Arrival Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	134	—	362147	69	84	70	19d	—	—	-3	17	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Two wins this year, including C&D, and still on a feasible mark; one to consider
7 (1)	Master Dandy Chestnut J:Daniel Muscutt T:James Fanshawe	J:Daniel Muscutt T:James Fanshawe	132	—	-29582	67	85	56	24d	—	—	-2	15.5	1.00/1	4/1 20%
More realistically treated now but his latest C&D second to Blackjack will need bettering
4 (7)	Blackjack Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:Alan Brown	J:Hollie Doyle T:Alan Brown	135	b	568541	70	82	66	24d	—	—	+2	20.2	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Easy win in a small field here 24 days ago; 6lb rise demands more but likely to run well
2 (6)	Five Winds Bay J:Kevin Stott T:Jack Jones	J:Kevin Stott T:Jack Jones	135	p	463152	70	83	63	34d	—	—	+6	19.9	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Improving with experience; edging up weights but can do better; headgear tried today
3 (2)	Daytona Lady Bay J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	135	p	221761	70	83	70	28d	—	—	+13	21.2	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Narrow winner over C&D four weeks ago; up 4lb but still feasibly weighted; strong pace a +
1 (9)	She's Centimental Bay J:Jason Hart T:Alice Haynes	J:Jason Hart T:Alice Haynes	137	p	174626	72	83	63	31d	—	—	+3	11.4	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Better on AW than turf; handicapped to go well returned to this surface
8 (3)	Motagally Bay J:Luke Morris T:Scott Dixon	J:Luke Morris T:Scott Dixon	128	b	89-758	63	83	57	8d	—	—	-1	5	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Not found his best this year and his losing run stretches back to September 2020
9 (5)	Rogue De Vega Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	125	h	466203	60	86	76	10d	—	—	+4	9.6	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Latest effort was encouraging in isolation but he's no banker to reproduce it
6 (8)	Run This Way Bay J:Dougie Costello T:Paul Midgley	J:Dougie Costello T:Paul Midgley	132	v	711153	67	85	53	24d	—	—	+14	18.3	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Turf hat-trick in Class 6 events this summer; yet to show she's quite so good on AW
10 (10)	Barney's Bay Bay J:Duran Fentiman T:Derek Shaw	J:Duran Fentiman T:Derek Shaw	123	—	9-6906	58	83	37	24d	—	—	+1	2.3	20.00/1	80/1 1%
Poor form for new yard this season; too much to prove for comfort

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Late Arrival	4/1	7/2	7/2
Master Dandy	4/1	7/2	7/2
Blackjack	7/2	10/3	7/2
Five Winds	5/1	11/2	11/2
Daytona Lady	9/1	10/1	10/1
She's Centimental	11/1	10/1	11/1
Motagally	12/1	14/1	12/1
Rogue De Vega	16/1	16/1	16/1
Run This Way	18/1	22/1	22/1
Barney's Bay	80/1	80/1	80/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Daytona Lady

21.2

OR: 5 Form: 14 Odds: 2.2

10/1

2nd

Blackjack

20.2

OR: 5 Form: 10 Odds: 5.2

7/2

3rd

Five Winds

19.9

OR: 5 Form: 10.9 Odds: 4

11/2

Run This Way

18.3

OR: 4.3 Form: 13 Odds: 1.1

22/1

Late Arrival

OR: 4.8 Form: 6.5 Odds: 5.7

4/1

Master Dandy

15.5

OR: 4.3 Form: 6 Odds: 5.2

4/1

She's Centimental

11.4

OR: 5.5 Form: 3.5 Odds: 2.4

11/1

Rogue De Vega

9.6

OR: 2.5 Form: 5.5 Odds: 1.6

16/1

Motagally

OR: 3.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

14/1

Barney's Bay

2.3

OR: 2 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

80/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
She's Centimental	72	83	63
Blackjack	70	82	66
Five Winds	70	83	63
Daytona Lady	70	83	70
Late Arrival	69	84	70
Master Dandy	67	85	56
Run This Way	67	85	53
Motagally	63	83	57
Rogue De Vega	60	86	76
Barney's Bay	58	83	37

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Motagally	8d ago	Quick return
Rogue De Vega	10d ago	Quick return
Late Arrival	19d ago	Fit
Master Dandy	24d ago	Fit
Blackjack	24d ago	Fit
Run This Way	24d ago	Fit
Barney's Bay	24d ago	Fit
Daytona Lady	28d ago	Fit
She's Centimental	31d ago	Fit
Five Winds	34d ago	Fit

Pace Profile

Horse	Running Style
Run This Way	Prominent
Daytona Lady	Hold Up

Inferred from horse comments. 2 of 10 runners classified.

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 6f16y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Based on 7 draws with historical results at this course and distance.