Airquick (Newark) Ltd Compressed Air Systems Handicap (Div II)

Southwell (AW)

17:58

Date 2024-08-30

Distance 1m13y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £2,983

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
10 (8)	L'Argent Grey J:Jason Hart T:Michael Appleby	J:Jason Hart T:Michael Appleby	130	h	209853	60	82	56	14d	—	—	-7	10.5	1.13/1	9/2 18%
13-race maiden; good chance on this winter's AW best & more promise on turf the last twice
5 (3)	Embarked Bay J:Luke Morris T:Scott Dixon	J:Luke Morris T:Scott Dixon	133	b	525623	63	83	71	5d	—	—	+1	14.8	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Placed in Class 5 handicaps the last twice; should make another bold bid
7 (4)	Mercurius Power Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:Jessica Macey	J:Lewis Edmunds T:Jessica Macey	132	tp	234544	62	81	61	14d	—	—	-5	6.9	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Dangerous mark on this winter's AW best; two runs back from a break should have him primed
6 (2)	Bernadine Bay J:Daniel Muscutt T:James Fanshawe	J:Daniel Muscutt T:James Fanshawe	133	b	478566	63	82	59	8d	—	—	-4	5.9	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Placed off 11lb higher over C&D in March; disappointing since; now tried in blinkers
3 (11)	Flying Secret Bay J:Mia Nicholls(5) T:Eve Johnson Houghton	J:Mia Nicholls(5) T:Eve Johnson Houghton	134	tp	967464	64	79	-	15d	—	—	-4	6.4	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Two 7f wins last summer; run well in two of his last three starts; 1m the query
4 (9)	Dumfries Bay J:Jason Watson T:Ruth Carr	J:Jason Watson T:Ruth Carr	133	—	068506	63	83	33	16d	—	—	-4	6.1	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Not fired for current yard, including when favourite over 7f here four weeks ago; risky
1 (6)	Thanks Dad Bay J:Tyler Heard T:Scott Dixon	J:Tyler Heard T:Scott Dixon	135	—	242755	65	75	65	12d	—	—	-1	7.6	2.25/1	9/1 10%
0-7 but has shown promise on AW; return to 1m should suit; one to take seriously
2 (7)	Calder Valley Bay J:Adam Farragher T:Julie Camacho	J:Adam Farragher T:Julie Camacho	135	—	0/348	65	76	26	168d	—	—	-1	5.7	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Absent since finishing well held in a Newcastle handicap in March; new trip; others safer
8 (12)	Create Bay J:Dale Swift T:Scott Dixon	J:Dale Swift T:Scott Dixon	131	p	853197	61	79	-	13d	0W/0P 1 run	0W/0P 1 run	+5	10	4.00/1	16/1 6%
C&D winner; not at her best in two runs since a 7f win at Doncaster; yard run three
12 (10)	Chagall Bay J:Dylan Hogan T:Jack Jones	J:Dylan Hogan T:Jack Jones	127	—	234448	57	82	69	38d	—	—	-1	3.6	4.50/1	18/1 5%
On a good mark but not at best of late; drops in trip in a race not sure to be well run
11 (5)	Mickey Mongoose Bay J:Duran Fentiman T:Olly Williams	J:Duran Fentiman T:Olly Williams	127	—	104600	57	80	74	15d	—	—	-3	3.7	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Sprung a 66-1 surprise over C&D in March; only run to a similar level once since
9 (1)	Beaming Light Bay J:Frederick Larson(3) T:Laura Horsfall	J:Frederick Larson(3) T:Laura Horsfall	130	h	95409	60	81	-	15d	—	—	+1	3.1	16.50/1	66/1 1%
Well beaten in two handicap runs this summer; new surface/headgear tried today

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
L'Argent	9/2	4/1	4/1
Embarked	5/1	11/2	5/1
Mercurius Power	6/1	6/1	6/1
Bernadine	15/2	15/2	15/2
Flying Secret	8/1	8/1	17/2
Dumfries	15/2	15/2	15/2
Thanks Dad	9/1	17/2	9/1
Calder Valley	12/1	12/1	12/1
Create	16/1	14/1	16/1
Chagall	16/1	18/1	16/1
Mickey Mongoose	16/1	16/1	18/1
Beaming Light	66/1	50/1	66/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Embarked

14.8

OR: 3.3 Form: 7.5 Odds: 4

11/2

2nd

L'Argent

10.5

OR: 2.5 Form: 3 Odds: 5

9/2

3rd

Create

OR: 2.8 Form: 5.9 Odds: 1.4

16/1

Thanks Dad

7.6

OR: 3.8 Form: 1.5 Odds: 2.4

9/1

Mercurius Power

6.9

OR: 3 Form: 0.6 Odds: 3.3

6/1

Flying Secret

6.4

OR: 3.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.9

17/2

Dumfries

6.1

OR: 3.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.9

15/2

Bernadine

5.9

OR: 3.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.7

15/2

Calder Valley

5.7

OR: 3.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

12/1

Mickey Mongoose

3.7

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

18/1

Chagall

3.6

OR: 1.8 Form: 0.6 Odds: 1.2

18/1

Beaming Light

3.1

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

66/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Thanks Dad	65	75	65
Calder Valley	65	76	26
Flying Secret	64	79	—
Embarked	63	83	71
Bernadine	63	82	59
Dumfries	63	83	33
Mercurius Power	62	81	61
Create	61	79	—
L'Argent	60	82	56
Beaming Light	60	81	—
Chagall	57	82	69
Mickey Mongoose	57	80	74

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Embarked	5d ago	Quick return
Bernadine	8d ago	Quick return
Thanks Dad	12d ago	Quick return
Create	13d ago	Quick return
L'Argent	14d ago	Fit
Mercurius Power	14d ago	Fit
Flying Secret	15d ago	Fit
Mickey Mongoose	15d ago	Fit
Beaming Light	15d ago	Fit
Dumfries	16d ago	Fit
Chagall	38d ago	Fit
Calder Valley	168d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 1m13y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 9 draws with historical results at this course and distance.