Oktoberfest Raceday At Chelmsford City Racecourse Nursery Handicap

Chelmsford (AW)

20:10

Date 2024-08-31

Distance 7f

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £3,664

Runners (14)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
10 (3)	Al Waseela Bay J:Adam Farragher T:William Haggas	J:Adam Farragher T:William Haggas	131	p	0064	51	61	42	20d	—	—	-17	7.5	0.63/1	5/2 29%
Finished well at Leicester for an encouraging handicap debut; respected off same mark
6 (8)	Telford Bay J:David Egan T:Hughie Morrison	J:David Egan T:Hughie Morrison	134	—	090	54	52	49	49d	—	—	-12	6.2	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Stable is among the winners; improvement looks plausible now handicapping; interesting
12 (1)	Clipsham Noble Bay J:Kieran O'Neill T:Alice Haynes	J:Kieran O'Neill T:Alice Haynes	125	—	589	45	54	-	88d	—	—	-9	3.6	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Handicap debutant; market should prove best guide on return from 88-day break
5 (13)	Prada On Parole Bay J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Amy Murphy	J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Amy Murphy	134	—	7984	54	57	45	25d	—	—	-7	4.1	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Clear signs of improvement here (AW/nursery debut) last time; may build on that effort
11 (2)	Flaine Bay J:Sean D Bowen(3) T:Tom Dascombe	J:Sean D Bowen(3) T:Tom Dascombe	125	—	007	45	59	43	25d	—	—	-8	3.3	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Midfield in C&D maiden last time, improving on her turf efforts; could go well
2 (4)	Ashen Glow Chestnut J:Joshua Bryan T:Archie Watson	J:Joshua Bryan T:Archie Watson	136	b	24845	56	59	30	32d	—	—	-4	4.9	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Has failed to progress in sprints; mixed messages in pedigree with regard to this new trip
4 (10)	Polar Rebel Bay J:Rhys Clutterbuck T:Amy Murphy	J:Rhys Clutterbuck T:Amy Murphy	135	—	680	55	57	-	33d	—	—	-2	2.5	5.50/1	22/1 4%
New trip and switch to handicap level are possible sources of improvement
8 (11)	Fregola Chestnut J:Sam Hitchcott T:Richard Hannon	J:Sam Hitchcott T:Richard Hannon	132	—	87777	52	60	40	24d	—	—	-2	1.5	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Similar type to stablemate Majestic Heights and may be capable of getting involved
9 (5)	Poet's Peace Bay J:Daniel Muscutt T:Ed Dunlop	J:Daniel Muscutt T:Ed Dunlop	132	—	76909	52	40	27	25d	—	—	-2	1.4	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Finished behind Prada On Parole here last time; needs to improve for the new trip
3 (9)	Majestic Heights Bay J:Thomas Greatrex T:Richard Hannon	J:Thomas Greatrex T:Richard Hannon	135	—	4697	55	55	32	20d	—	—	-1	2.1	8.25/1	33/1 3%
May be capable of a bigger effort at this level on only his second nursery attempt
13 (6)	Innocent Settler Bay J:Christian Howarth(3) T:Alice Haynes	J:Christian Howarth(3) T:Alice Haynes	125	tp	0990	45	47	-	19d	—	—	-1	0.5	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Bare form is decidedly poor
7 (7)	Marrakesh Dawn Bay J:George Rooke T:Mark Usher	J:George Rooke T:Mark Usher	133	—	0809	53	55	22	45d	—	—	0	1.1	16.50/1	66/1 1%
Still has little form and needs to improve plenty for this step back up in trip
14 (12)	Ardads Dream Bay J:Laura Coughlan(3) T:Mark Usher	J:Laura Coughlan(3) T:Mark Usher	125	p	909	45	35	-	50d	—	—	-1	0.5	16.50/1	66/1 1%
First-time headgear needs to have a massive effect
NR (14)	Montbeliarde Bay J:Fred Daly(7) T:George Boughey	J:Fred Daly(7) T:George Boughey	141	—	07627	61	61	56	1d	—	—	—	6.3	—	—
Clear second at Kempton last week; better than the bare result at Salisbury yesterday

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Al Waseela	5/2	9/4	5/2
Telford	7/2	10/3	7/2
Clipsham Noble	6/1	13/2	6/1
Prada On Parole	7/1	15/2	7/1
Flaine	13/2	13/2	13/2
Ashen Glow	9/1	9/1	9/1
Polar Rebel	20/1	22/1	22/1
Fregola	22/1	22/1	20/1
Poet's Peace	33/1	25/1	25/1
Majestic Heights	33/1	25/1	28/1
Innocent Settler	50/1	50/1	50/1
Marrakesh Dawn	66/1	66/1	66/1
Ardads Dream	66/1	66/1	66/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Al Waseela

7.5

OR: 0.3 Form: 0 Odds: 7.3

5/2

2nd

Montbeliarde

6.3

OR: 2.8 Form: 3.5 Odds: 0

—

3rd

Telford

6.2

OR: 1 Form: 0 Odds: 5.2

7/2

Ashen Glow

4.9

OR: 1.5 Form: 1 Odds: 2.4

9/1

Prada On Parole

4.1

OR: 1 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

15/2

Clipsham Noble

3.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

13/2

Flaine

3.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Polar Rebel

2.5

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

22/1

Majestic Heights

2.1

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

33/1

Fregola

1.5

OR: 0.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1

22/1

Poet's Peace

1.4

OR: 0.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

33/1

Marrakesh Dawn

1.1

OR: 0.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

66/1

Innocent Settler

0.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

50/1

Ardads Dream

0.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

66/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Montbeliarde	61	61	56
Ashen Glow	56	59	30
Polar Rebel	55	57	—
Majestic Heights	55	55	32
Telford	54	52	49
Prada On Parole	54	57	45
Marrakesh Dawn	53	55	22
Fregola	52	60	40
Poet's Peace	52	40	27
Al Waseela	51	61	42
Clipsham Noble	45	54	—
Flaine	45	59	43
Innocent Settler	45	47	—
Ardads Dream	45	35	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Montbeliarde	1d ago	Quick return
Innocent Settler	19d ago	Fit
Al Waseela	20d ago	Fit
Majestic Heights	20d ago	Fit
Fregola	24d ago	Fit
Prada On Parole	25d ago	Fit
Flaine	25d ago	Fit
Poet's Peace	25d ago	Fit
Ashen Glow	32d ago	Fit
Polar Rebel	33d ago	Fit
Marrakesh Dawn	45d ago	Fit
Telford	49d ago	Fresh
Ardads Dream	50d ago	Fresh
Clipsham Noble	88d ago	Fresh