Quinnbet Daily Free Bet Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

18:30

Quinnbet Daily Free Bet Handicap

Date 2024-09-10

Distance 6f

Class Class 5

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,716

Runners (13)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
5 (2)	Asimov Bay J:Daniel Muscutt T:James Fanshawe	J:Daniel Muscutt T:James Fanshawe	137	tp	547126	76	83	-	32d	—	—	+1	20.7	0.88/1	7/2 22%
In good order since dropped to 6f; new cheekpieces need to give him a lift though
2 (11)	Juicy Bay J:Jason Hart T:Richard Spencer	J:Jason Hart T:Richard Spencer	139	—	1-2475	76	88	68	19d	—	—	+1	18.5	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Unexposed filly; not beaten far in a better 5f handicap here last month; should stay 6f
8 (8)	Quintus Arrius Bay J:Daniel Tudhope T:Peter Niven	J:Daniel Tudhope T:Peter Niven	135	—	430308	72	87	-	14d	—	—	-5	12.8	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Generally struggled for current yard; down in weights and is a C&D winner; still risky
1 (13)	Faro De San Juan Bay J:David Egan T:Dylan Cunha	J:David Egan T:Dylan Cunha	140	tb	366163	77	85	59	8d	—	—	+6	18.1	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Not at best last time but earlier 5f efforts, including here, bring him into the reckoning
7 (4)	Rough Diamond Bay J:Rowan Scott T:Tristan Davidson	J:Rowan Scott T:Tristan Davidson	135	—	861063	72	87	79	12d	—	—	+5	13.9	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Five-time winner in Ireland; running okay for new yard without looking ahead of his mark
4 (7)	Sir Oliver Bay J:Silvestre De Sousa T:Chris Dwyer	J:Silvestre De Sousa T:Chris Dwyer	138	b	335986	75	85	65	8d	—	—	+1	9.1	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Quiet on turf of late but AW mark has dropped as a consequence; too well treated to ignore
13 (12)	The Real McKay Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:Ivan Furtado	J:Hollie Doyle T:Ivan Furtado	128	t	4-2101	67	83	63	21d	—	—	-2	6.5	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Progressive in 6f handicaps and unlikely she's reached her ceiling just yet
11 (1)	Bellagio Man Bay J:Alex Jary(5) T:Antony Brittain	J:Alex Jary(5) T:Antony Brittain	132	p	577786	69	84	66	6d	—	—	+2	6	5.00/1	20/1 5%
C&D win off 8lb higher last Sept; running himself back into form; should be winning soon
9 (9)	Ziggy's Queen Bay J:Oisin Orr T:Richard Fahey	J:Oisin Orr T:Richard Fahey	134	v	605453	73	86	-	16d	—	—	+4	10.5	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Infrequent winner; dropping down the weights but others appeal more for win purposes
12 (6)	As If By Chance Bay J:Faye McManoman T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Faye McManoman T:Nigel Tinkler	132	—	495030	69	87	70	22d	—	—	+4	7.8	6.25/1	25/1 4%
On a handy mark but it's been something of a mixed bag this year
6 (5)	Dark Kestrel Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	136	t	029109	73	85	66	6d	1W/1P 1 run	1W/1P 1 run	+10	12.5	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Low-key return to action at Southwell last week; would be more appealing at 5f
10 (10)	Lady Celia Bay J:Archie Young(5) T:Alan Brown	J:Archie Young(5) T:Alan Brown	134	—	9-1414	71	83	65	19d	—	—	+3	6.2	8.25/1	33/1 3%
In good form this season but she would make more appeal over 5f
3 (3)	South Shore Bay J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	138	—	2-5190	77	84	-	14d	—	—	+9	10.6	20.00/1	80/1 1%
Drops in class but best watched on the back of a low-key stable debut

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Asimov	7/2	7/2	10/3	7/2	7/2
Juicy	9/2	4/1	4/1	9/2	4/1
Quintus Arrius	9/2	9/2	4/1	17/2	9/2
Faro De San Juan	8/1	15/2	9/1	11/2	8/1
Rough Diamond	10/1	10/1	8/1	9/1	10/1
Sir Oliver	10/1	9/1	10/1	17/2	9/1
The Real McKay	12/1	11/1	11/1	17/2	12/1
Bellagio Man	20/1	20/1	18/1	16/1	18/1
Ziggy's Queen	16/1	16/1	16/1	11/1	16/1
As If By Chance	25/1	25/1	25/1	20/1	25/1
Dark Kestrel	40/1	33/1	33/1	28/1	33/1
Lady Celia	25/1	33/1	33/1	20/1	33/1
South Shore	80/1	80/1	66/1	66/1	80/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Asimov

20.7

OR: 6.5 Form: 8.5 Odds: 5.7

7/2

2nd

Juicy

18.5

OR: 6.5 Form: 7 Odds: 5

9/2

3rd

Faro De San Juan

18.1

OR: 6.8 Form: 8 Odds: 3.3

9/1

Rough Diamond

13.9

OR: 5.5 Form: 6 Odds: 2.4

10/1

Quintus Arrius

12.8

OR: 5.5 Form: 2.1 Odds: 5.2

17/2

Dark Kestrel

12.5

OR: 5.8 Form: 6 Odds: 0.7

40/1

South Shore

10.6

OR: 6.8 Form: 3.5 Odds: 0.3

80/1

Ziggy's Queen

10.5

OR: 5.8 Form: 3 Odds: 1.7

16/1

Sir Oliver

9.1

OR: 6.3 Form: 0.6 Odds: 2.2

10/1

As If By Chance

7.8

OR: 4.8 Form: 2.1 Odds: 1

25/1

The Real McKay

6.5

OR: 4.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.2

12/1

Lady Celia

6.2

OR: 5.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1

33/1

Bellagio Man

OR: 4.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

20/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Faro De San Juan	77	85	59
South Shore	77	84	—
Asimov	76	83	—
Juicy	76	88	68
Sir Oliver	75	85	65
Ziggy's Queen	73	86	—
Dark Kestrel	73	85	66
Quintus Arrius	72	87	—
Rough Diamond	72	87	79
Lady Celia	71	83	65
Bellagio Man	69	84	66
As If By Chance	69	87	70
The Real McKay	67	83	63

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Bellagio Man	6d ago	Quick return
Dark Kestrel	6d ago	Quick return
Faro De San Juan	8d ago	Quick return
Sir Oliver	8d ago	Quick return
Rough Diamond	12d ago	Quick return
Quintus Arrius	14d ago	Fit
South Shore	14d ago	Fit
Ziggy's Queen	16d ago	Fit
Juicy	19d ago	Fit
Lady Celia	19d ago	Fit
The Real McKay	21d ago	Fit
As If By Chance	22d ago	Fit
Asimov	32d ago	Fit

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 6f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Based on 11 draws with historical results at this course and distance.