Dubai Duty Free Autumn Cup Handicap – Newbury

Newbury

14:05

Dubai Duty Free Autumn Cup Handicap

Date 2024-09-21

Distance 1m5f61y

Class Class 2

Going Heavy

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £36,078

Runners (15)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
12 (8)	Waxing Gibbous Bay J:Harry Davies T:David Menuisier	J:Harry Davies T:David Menuisier	121	—	6-2122	86	110	75	14d	—	—	-4	14.2	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Progressive and, although up another 5lb, should put up another bold show if ground okay
5 (4)	Lieber Power Bay J:Oisin Murphy T:Andrew Balding	J:Oisin Murphy T:Andrew Balding	128	—	012122	93	110	80	29d	—	—	+17	32.2	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Unraced on soft; in the form of his life at about 1m4f this summer, likely to stay further
15 (11)	Ithaca's Arrow Chestnut J:Sam Hitchcott T:Dominic Ffrench Davis	J:Sam Hitchcott T:Dominic Ffrench Davis	116	—	332-21	81	112	100	7d	—	—	-3	12.2	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Up another 5lb; rising force who won in clearcut style at Chester (1m4f, soft) a week ago
4 (15)	Chillingham Bay J:William Buick T:Edward Bethell	J:William Buick T:Edward Bethell	130	p	2-7330	95	113	94	28d	—	—	+6	18.1	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Faded in the Ebor; reliable over 1m4f/1m6f, perhaps ideally suited by softer than good
9 (6)	Our Golden One Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:Tom Ward	J:Hollie Doyle T:Tom Ward	123	—	1-1532	95	109	94	28d	—	—	+10	21.3	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Excellent 2nd of six in handicap at Goodwood (1m4f, soft) which made this trip look viable
3 (7)	Not So Sleepy Chestnut J:Tom Marquand T:Hughie Morrison	J:Tom Marquand T:Hughie Morrison	134	—	/17-44	99	109	86	112d	—	—	+7	14.4	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Won this on heavy last year; significant rain over the last day or so will probably help
11 (13)	Flash Bardot Bay J:David Probert T:Jack Channon	J:David Probert T:Jack Channon	122	—	-18859	87	114	105	29d	—	—	+7	13	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Best in the mud, but did not show it when disappointing on heavy going last time
13 (10)	Kotari Bay J:Jason Watson T:Gary & Josh Moore	J:Jason Watson T:Gary & Josh Moore	121	—	6-1115	86	114	100	112d	—	—	+5	10.4	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Can race freely but this new trip is well worth a go; off 112 days but needs a close look
10 (9)	Knightswood Chestnut J:Silvestre De Sousa T:Charlie Johnston	J:Silvestre De Sousa T:Charlie Johnston	122	—	244574	87	114	87	14d	—	—	+6	10.6	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Fourth of 15 in valuable event at Haydock two weeks ago but below form in going down by 9l
1 (3)	Grand Alliance Bay J:James Doyle T:Charlie Fellowes	J:James Doyle T:Charlie Fellowes	138	p	1642-0	103	109	99	14d	—	—	+10	14.5	6.25/1	25/1 4%
No show in 1m6f handicap at Haydock (14-1) two weeks ago after a year off
8 (14)	Two Brothers Bay J:Saffie Osborne T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Saffie Osborne T:Michael & David Easterby	124	v	-41306	89	113	87	56d	—	—	+13	14.8	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Drying ground would seemingly be against him, but of interest if there's been a downpour
NR (1)	Lucander Bay J:TBC T:George Baker	J: T:George Baker	134	t	-33500	99	111	89	95d	—	—	—	13.8	—	—
Towards the rear in two good handicaps back in Britain in June; not proven beyond 1m4f
NR (12)	Youthful King Bay J:TBC T:Luke Dace	J: T:Luke Dace	125	—	55P561	90	110	64	16d	—	—	—	19.6	—	—
25-1 winner on AW 16 days ago; turf record this season is a problem but fine on it in 2023
NR (5)	Aqwaam Grey J:TBC T:Ian Williams	J: T:Ian Williams	125	—	422176	90	110	76	134d	—	—	—	17.5	—	—
Creditable and none-too-lucky 6th in the Chester Cup in May when last seen (finished lame)
NR (2)	Spaceport Grey J:TBC T:William Muir & Chris Grassick	J: T:William Muir & Chris Grassick	118	—	124108	90	110	103	14d	—	—	—	16	—	—
Two wins this term but, judged on major races last two starts, may have gone off the boil

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Waxing Gibbous	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2	10/3
Lieber Power	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2	4/1
Ithaca's Arrow	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2	4/1
Chillingham	6/1	6/1	6/1	6/1	6/1
Our Golden One	7/1	7/1	7/1	7/1	7/1
Not So Sleepy	11/1	10/1	10/1	10/1	9/1
Flash Bardot	14/1	14/1	14/1	12/1	16/1
Kotari	18/1	16/1	16/1	16/1	16/1
Knightswood	20/1	18/1	18/1	18/1	16/1
Grand Alliance	22/1	25/1	25/1	22/1	18/1
Two Brothers	33/1	40/1	40/1	33/1	40/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Lieber Power

32.2

OR: 10.8 Form: 17 Odds: 4.4

9/2

2nd

Our Golden One

21.3

OR: 11.3 Form: 7 Odds: 3.1

7/1

3rd

Youthful King

19.6

OR: 10 Form: 9.6 Odds: 0

—

Chillingham

18.1

OR: 11.3 Form: 3.5 Odds: 3.3

6/1

Aqwaam

17.5

OR: 10 Form: 7.5 Odds: 0

—

Spaceport

OR: 10 Form: 6 Odds: 0

—

Two Brothers

14.8

OR: 9.8 Form: 4.5 Odds: 0.6

40/1

Grand Alliance

14.5

OR: 13.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

25/1

Not So Sleepy

14.4

OR: 12.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

11/1

Waxing Gibbous

14.2

OR: 9 Form: 0 Odds: 5.2

7/2

Lucander

13.8

OR: 12.3 Form: 1.5 Odds: 0

—

Flash Bardot

OR: 9.3 Form: 2 Odds: 1.7

16/1

Ithaca's Arrow

12.2

OR: 7.8 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

9/2

Knightswood

10.6

OR: 9.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

20/1

Kotari

10.4

OR: 9 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

18/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Grand Alliance	103	109	99
Not So Sleepy	99	109	86
Lucander	99	111	89
Chillingham	95	113	94
Our Golden One	95	109	94
Lieber Power	93	110	80
Youthful King	90	110	64
Aqwaam	90	110	76
Spaceport	90	110	103
Two Brothers	89	113	87
Flash Bardot	87	114	105
Knightswood	87	114	87
Waxing Gibbous	86	110	75
Kotari	86	114	100
Ithaca's Arrow	81	112	100

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Ithaca's Arrow	7d ago	Quick return
Waxing Gibbous	14d ago	Fit
Knightswood	14d ago	Fit
Grand Alliance	14d ago	Fit
Spaceport	14d ago	Fit
Youthful King	16d ago	Fit
Chillingham	28d ago	Fit
Our Golden One	28d ago	Fit
Lieber Power	29d ago	Fit
Flash Bardot	29d ago	Fit
Two Brothers	56d ago	Fresh
Lucander	95d ago	Long break
Not So Sleepy	112d ago	Long break
Kotari	112d ago	Long break
Aqwaam	134d ago	Long break