McGee Group British EBF October Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares)

Ascot

16:10

Date 2024-10-05

Distance 7f

Class Class 1

Going Soft

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £31,191

Runners (13)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	Odds
1 (12)	Elim Bay J:Callum Rodriguez T:Edward Bethell	J:Callum Rodriguez T:Edward Bethell	128	—	-46342	101	118	100	20d	—	—	-1	28.1	7/4 36%
Yet to win in 2024 but has been progressive; second in Group 3 last time; major player
11 (8)	Queen Of Mougins Bay J:Hector Crouch T:Ralph Beckett	J:Hector Crouch T:Ralph Beckett	126	p	683323	101	117	96	20d	—	—	+12	25.7	11/2 15%
Winless in 2024 but knocking firmly at the door; solid candidate in first-time cheekpieces
3 (2)	Hopeful Bay J:David Probert T:Andrew Balding	J:David Probert T:Andrew Balding	128	—	/15232	93	116	93	108d	—	—	+13	26	11/2 15%
Lightly raced 4yo; beaten a neck at the Royal meeting here; retains untapped potential
9 (1)	Ornellaia Grey J:David Egan T:Ralph Beckett	J:David Egan T:Ralph Beckett	126	—	3123-	102	111	93	391d	—	—	+17	28.7	13/2 13%
Second in French Group 2 for previous yard; fascinating contender after long absence
5 (5)	Rajindri Bay J:Daniel Tudhope T:Tom Clover	J:Daniel Tudhope T:Tom Clover	128	—	-21041	88	105	94	28d	—	—	+19	25.2	12/1 8%
Likeable type; has won three 7f handicaps, latest at Thirsk; up in grade today
7 (11)	Flying Finn Bay J:Oisin McSweeney T:Adrian Paul Keatley	J:Oisin McSweeney T:Adrian Paul Keatley	126	—	173601	96	116	80	7d	—	—	+18	24	16/1 6%
Last Saturday's Haydock win was her third of 2024; this drop back to 7f not sure to suit
13 (3)	Sunfall Grey J:Cieren Fallon T:William Haggas	J:Cieren Fallon T:William Haggas	126	—	013310	86	103	83	44d	—	—	+17	21.8	16/1 6%
Three 7f wins this year but she is some way down the pecking order on ratings here
12 (4)	Sky Safari Bay J:Daniel Muscutt T:James Fanshawe	J:Daniel Muscutt T:James Fanshawe	126	t	1	-	96	67	115d	—	—	+7	11.2	22/1 4%
28-1 for debut win at Yarmouth in June; this is harder; now wears tongue-strap
2 (13)	Embrace Bay J:Jamie Spencer T:George Boughey	J:Jamie Spencer T:George Boughey	128	t	388-87	86	107	71	41d	—	—	+6	10.1	22/1 4%
1-11; below par for current yard; hopes may be pinned on the addition of a tongue-strap
4 (9)	Mystic Pearl Bay J:Clifford Lee T:William Haggas	J:Clifford Lee T:William Haggas	128	t	-64630	96	112	75	108d	—	—	+12	14.3	33/1 3%
Down the field in Kensington Palace Stakes here in June; others have more obvious claims
6 (10)	American Arrow Bay J:Saffie Osborne T:Ed Walker	J:Saffie Osborne T:Ed Walker	126	—	18	82	97	91	56d	—	—	+13	15.7	50/1 2%
Easy debut winner before folding tamely next time; plenty to find but could be unexposed
8 (7)	Key To Cotai Chestnut J:Jason Watson T:Ed Walker	J:Jason Watson T:Ed Walker	126	p	212407	94	110	102	20d	—	—	+13	15.2	50/1 2%
In good form in the summer but last two efforts have been below par; stable runs three
10 (6)	Queen's Reign Chestnut J:Jason Hart T:Ed Walker	J:Jason Hart T:Ed Walker	126	—	7-4132	86	106	91	30d	—	—	+7	9.6	66/1 1%
Consistent in handicaps this year, second at Newbury on latest; more required here

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Elim	7/4	7/4	7/4	7/4	7/4
Queen Of Mougins	11/2	5/1	5/1	9/2	5/1
Hopeful	11/2	11/2	11/2	11/2	11/2
Ornellaia	6/1	6/1	6/1	13/2	11/2
Rajindri	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Flying Finn	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	16/1
Sunfall	16/1	16/1	16/1	16/1	16/1
Sky Safari	22/1	20/1	22/1	22/1	22/1
Embrace	22/1	22/1	22/1	22/1	22/1
Mystic Pearl	33/1	33/1	33/1	28/1	33/1
American Arrow	50/1	40/1	40/1	33/1	33/1
Key To Cotai	50/1	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1
Queen's Reign	66/1	50/1	50/1	40/1	40/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Ornellaia

28.7

OR: 13 Form: 12.4 Odds: 3.3

13/2

2nd

Elim

28.1

OR: 12.8 Form: 6.5 Odds: 8.9

7/4

3rd

Hopeful

OR: 10.8 Form: 11.6 Odds: 3.6

11/2

Queen Of Mougins

25.7

OR: 12.8 Form: 8.9 Odds: 4

11/2

Rajindri

25.2

OR: 9.5 Form: 14 Odds: 1.7

12/1

Flying Finn

OR: 11.5 Form: 10.9 Odds: 1.6

16/1

Sunfall

21.8

OR: 9 Form: 11.4 Odds: 1.4

16/1

American Arrow

15.7

OR: 8 Form: 7 Odds: 0.7

50/1

Key To Cotai

15.2

OR: 11 Form: 3.5 Odds: 0.7

50/1

Mystic Pearl

14.3

OR: 11.5 Form: 2.1 Odds: 0.7

33/1

Sky Safari

11.2

OR: 0 Form: 10 Odds: 1.2

22/1

Embrace

10.1

OR: 9 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

22/1

Queen's Reign

9.6

OR: 9 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

66/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Ornellaia Top Rated	102	111	93
Elim	101	118	100
Queen Of Mougins	101	117	96
Flying Finn	96	116	80
Mystic Pearl	96	112	75
Key To Cotai	94	110	102
Hopeful	93	116	93
Rajindri	88	105	94
Sunfall	86	103	83
Embrace	86	107	71
Queen's Reign	86	106	91
American Arrow	82	97	91
Sky Safari	—	96	67

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Flying Finn	7d ago	Quick return
Elim	20d ago	Fit
Queen Of Mougins	20d ago	Fit
Key To Cotai	20d ago	Fit
Rajindri	28d ago	Fit
Queen's Reign	30d ago	Fit
Embrace	41d ago	Fit
Sunfall	44d ago	Fit
American Arrow	56d ago	Fresh
Hopeful	108d ago	Long break
Mystic Pearl	108d ago	Long break
Sky Safari	115d ago	Long break
Ornellaia	391d ago	Long break