Grace And Dotty Novice Stakes (GBB Race) – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

16:40

Grace And Dotty Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Date 2024-10-05

Distance 1m13y

Class Class 4

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £5,351

Runners (11)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (2)	Sardinian Warrior Bay J:Benoit De La Sayette T:John & Thady Gosden	J:Benoit De La Sayette T:John & Thady Gosden	136	—	2-1	-	94	86	160d	—	—	-21	31.7	0.17/1	4/6 60%
Impressive C&D winner in April; off since but should be too good for today's rivals
7 (9)	Tawajjah Chestnut J:Jack Mitchell T:Roger Varian	J:Jack Mitchell T:Roger Varian	130	—	7-2	-	91	-	19d	—	—	-17	15	0.47/1	15/8 35%
Always behind on debut as 2yo; only just failed on belated return at Windsor (1m)
8 (4)	Warm Response Bay J:Ross Coakley T:Simon & Ed Crisford	J:Ross Coakley T:Simon & Ed Crisford	130	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-6	2.1	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Likely type on pedigree; yard has solid strike-rate here; market can guide
3 (7)	Corundum Bay J:Jonny Peate T:Lucy Wadham	J:Jonny Peate T:Lucy Wadham	130	—	63	-	83	72	32d	—	—	-3	5.1	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Improved for step up to 1m when 3rd over C&D in September; limited win prospects today
11 (1)	So Lah De Dah Bay J:Billy Loughnane T:Alan King	J:Billy Loughnane T:Alan King	125	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-2	0.8	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Trip should suit on pedigree but this is a warm race in which to set off
10 (3)	Dopamine Bay J:Callum Shepherd T:George Scott	J:Callum Shepherd T:George Scott	125	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-2	0.6	16.50/1	66/1 1%
Well-connected filly but this looks an awkward starting point
6 (8)	Stipulation Bay J:Billy Garritty T:Mark Loughnane	J:Billy Garritty T:Mark Loughnane	130	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.3	25.00/1	100/1 1%
Nice enough pedigree for 1m but likely to improve for a run or two
2 (10)	Marble Sands Grey J:Kieran O'Neill T:David Killahena & Graeme McPherson	J:Kieran O'Neill T:David Killahena & Graeme McPherson	133	—	66	-	79	44	19d	—	—	-1	0.5	20.00/1	80/1 1%
Very useful jumper; respectable 1m4f on AW; should be taken off his legs dropped to 1m
4 (6)	Meridian Way Bay J:P J McDonald T:Charlie Johnston	J:P J McDonald T:Charlie Johnston	130	—	80	-	20	-	24d	—	—	-1	0.2	50.00/1	200/1 0%
Useful pedigree; finished remote in two 1m3f events on turf; can only watch dropped to 1m
5 (11)	Star Of Jupiter Bay J:Frederick Larson(3) T:Mark Loughnane	J:Frederick Larson(3) T:Mark Loughnane	130	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.2	50.00/1	200/1 0%
9,000gns 3yo; two winning siblings on AW; faces tough task on debut
9 (5)	Alchemystery Grey J:Connor Planas(3) T:Matt Crawley	J:Connor Planas(3) T:Matt Crawley	125	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.2	50.00/1	200/1 0%
Classy pedigree; of interest for further down the line but not today

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Sardinian Warrior	8/13	4/6	8/13	8/13	4/6
Tawajjah	7/4	15/8	7/4	13/8	15/8
Warm Response	14/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Corundum	14/1	14/1	14/1	12/1	12/1
So Lah De Dah	33/1	28/1	28/1	28/1	25/1
Dopamine	66/1	50/1	50/1	50/1	40/1
Stipulation	100/1	80/1	80/1	80/1	80/1
Marble Sands	80/1	66/1	66/1	66/1	66/1
Meridian Way	200/1	125/1	125/1	100/1	100/1
Star Of Jupiter	200/1	150/1	150/1	150/1	125/1
Alchemystery	200/1	150/1	200/1	150/1	125/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Sardinian Warrior

31.7

OR: 0 Form: 13.5 Odds: 18.2

4/6

2nd

Tawajjah

OR: 0 Form: 5 Odds: 10

15/8

3rd

Corundum

5.1

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 2.1

14/1

Warm Response

2.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

14/1

So Lah De Dah

0.8

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

33/1

Dopamine

0.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

66/1

Marble Sands

0.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

80/1

Stipulation

0.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

100/1

Meridian Way

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

200/1

Star Of Jupiter

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

200/1

Alchemystery

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

200/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Sardinian Warrior	—	94	86
Tawajjah	—	91	—
Warm Response	—	—	—
Corundum	—	83	72
So Lah De Dah	—	—	—
Dopamine	—	—	—
Stipulation	—	—	—
Marble Sands	—	79	44
Meridian Way	—	20	—
Star Of Jupiter	—	—	—
Alchemystery	—	—	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Tawajjah	19d ago	Fit
Marble Sands	19d ago	Fit
Meridian Way	24d ago	Fit
Corundum	32d ago	Fit
Sardinian Warrior	160d ago	Long break
Warm Response	—	—
So Lah De Dah	—	—
Dopamine	—	—
Stipulation	—	—
Star Of Jupiter	—	—
Alchemystery	—	—

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 1m13y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Based on 9 draws with historical results at this course and distance.