Unibet Support Safe Gambling Handicap – Kempton (AW)

Kempton (AW)

17:45

Unibet Support Safe Gambling Handicap

Date 2024-10-11

Distance 1m

Class Class 6

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo

Prize £3,140

Runners (14)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
2 (6)	Charles Morin Bay J:Paddy Bradley T:Pat Phelan	J:Paddy Bradley T:Pat Phelan	135	—	315565	55	66	59	44d	—	—	-11	9	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Back on his winning mark and not dismissed now returned to 1m
9 (4)	Blacklion Bay J:Cieren Fallon T:George Baker	J:Cieren Fallon T:George Baker	130	h	735413	50	64	57	18d	—	—	-2	15.6	0.88/1	7/2 22%
In form having won at Wolverhampton (7f) and then third over 9.4f there
1 (9)	Help Me Rhonda Chestnut J:Kaiya Fraser(3) T:James Fanshawe	J:Kaiya Fraser(3) T:James Fanshawe	135	h	433665	55	68	53	16d	—	—	-9	7.8	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Ex-Irish maiden; needs to improve for trying 1m but that's feasible
12 (1)	Ash Wednesday Grey J:Jack Mitchell T:Heather Main	J:Jack Mitchell T:Heather Main	126	t	507553	46	64	-	24d	—	—	-4	5.9	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Third over 7f at Brighton despite hanging right and looks up to winning a race like this
8 (3)	Penalty Shootout Bay J:Ross Coakley T:Rod Millman	J:Ross Coakley T:Rod Millman	130	—	305650	50	68	-	27d	—	—	-7	2.7	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Regressive maiden on the grass (1m2f-1m3f) and well beaten in two novices here last season
7 (7)	Cherry Hill Chestnut J:Finley Marsh T:Dominic Ffrench Davis	J:Finley Marsh T:Dominic Ffrench Davis	130	—	034755	50	65	55	30d	—	—	-6	3.3	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Has shown her best form on AW, notably a win off 8lb higher here last September
5 (11)	Northstead Gardens Chestnut J:Joey Haynes T:David Simcock	J:Joey Haynes T:David Simcock	132	—	766427	52	65	56	18d	—	—	+1	5.2	5.00/1	20/1 5%
0-8 but has placed form and didn't get the best of runs last time at Wolverhampton
11 (2)	Sold The Dream Bay J:William Carson T:Michael Madgwick	J:William Carson T:Michael Madgwick	129	b	0-870	49	56	46	85d	—	—	-3	1.1	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Four heavy defeats for Charles Hills included a handicap; all change now for new trainer
3 (10)	Muy Barato Bay J:Tyler Heard T:Simon Dow	J:Tyler Heard T:Simon Dow	133	—	R07-30	53	62	-	94d	—	—	-2	1.6	5.50/1	22/1 4%
All six starts have been on the AW, the latest when a well-beaten last of ten at Lingfield
14 (5)	Silver Shamrock Grey J:Josephine Gordon T:Julia Feilden	J:Josephine Gordon T:Julia Feilden	126	b	003085	46	66	59	43d	—	—	-1	1.8	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Third here in June but that wasn't a springboard to anything better
6 (8)	Match Anthem Bay J:George Wood T:P Charalambous & J Clutterbuck	J:George Wood T:P Charalambous & J Clutterbuck	130	v	256989	50	57	47	13d	—	—	-2	0.7	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Nine-race maiden with stamina to prove over this far and he's unconvincing
4 (14)	Serendipitous Lady Bay J:Taylor Fisher(3) T:Brett Johnson	J:Taylor Fisher(3) T:Brett Johnson	132	tv	8-6446	52	64	-	114d	—	—	-1	1	16.50/1	66/1 1%
7f turf winner in 2023; just okay runs for D Cunha; sold for 1,000gns; drawn wide here
10 (12)	Spirit Charmer Bay J:Jason Watson T:Andrew Balding	J:Jason Watson T:Andrew Balding	130	—	009-84	50	59	30	27d	—	—	-2	0.6	16.50/1	66/1 1%
Has looked very onepaced from 7f/1m2f and couldn't exploit a soft lead at Lingfield (1m)
13 (13)	Run Joy Run Bay J:Rhys Clutterbuck T:Adam West	J:Rhys Clutterbuck T:Adam West	126	v	694666	46	65	39	29d	—	—	-1	0.4	25.00/1	100/1 1%
Has lost her way but the new headgear may help and she is a C&D winner

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Charles Morin	10/3	10/3	10/3	3/1	10/3
Blacklion	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2
Help Me Rhonda	4/1	4/1	4/1	4/1	7/2
Ash Wednesday	8/1	7/1	15/2	7/1	8/1
Penalty Shootout	8/1	15/2	8/1	7/1	9/1
Cherry Hill	9/1	8/1	17/2	9/1	8/1
Northstead Gardens	20/1	18/1	20/1	18/1	16/1
Sold The Dream	22/1	20/1	22/1	20/1	18/1
Muy Barato	22/1	22/1	22/1	22/1	22/1
Silver Shamrock	33/1	28/1	28/1	33/1	22/1
Match Anthem	50/1	33/1	33/1	33/1	40/1
Serendipitous Lady	66/1	50/1	50/1	50/1	40/1
Spirit Charmer	66/1	40/1	50/1	50/1	33/1
Run Joy Run	100/1	66/1	100/1	80/1	50/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Blacklion

15.6

OR: 0 Form: 10.6 Odds: 5

7/2

2nd

Charles Morin

OR: 1.3 Form: 2 Odds: 5.7

10/3

3rd

Help Me Rhonda

7.8

OR: 1.3 Form: 1.5 Odds: 5

4/1

Ash Wednesday

5.9

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 2.9

8/1

Northstead Gardens

5.2

OR: 0.5 Form: 3.5 Odds: 1.2

20/1

Cherry Hill

3.3

OR: 0 Form: 0.6 Odds: 2.7

9/1

Penalty Shootout

2.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.7

9/1

Silver Shamrock

1.8

OR: 0 Form: 0.9 Odds: 0.9

33/1

Muy Barato

1.6

OR: 0.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

22/1

Sold The Dream

1.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

22/1

Serendipitous Lady

OR: 0.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

66/1

Match Anthem

0.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

50/1

Spirit Charmer

0.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

66/1

Run Joy Run

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

100/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Charles Morin	55	66	59
Help Me Rhonda	55	68	53
Muy Barato	53	62	—
Northstead Gardens	52	65	56
Serendipitous Lady	52	64	—
Blacklion	50	64	57
Penalty Shootout	50	68	—
Cherry Hill	50	65	55
Match Anthem	50	57	47
Spirit Charmer	50	59	30
Sold The Dream	49	56	46
Ash Wednesday	46	64	—
Silver Shamrock	46	66	59
Run Joy Run	46	65	39

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Match Anthem	13d ago	Quick return
Help Me Rhonda	16d ago	Fit
Blacklion	18d ago	Fit
Northstead Gardens	18d ago	Fit
Ash Wednesday	24d ago	Fit
Penalty Shootout	27d ago	Fit
Spirit Charmer	27d ago	Fit
Run Joy Run	29d ago	Fit
Cherry Hill	30d ago	Fit
Silver Shamrock	43d ago	Fit
Charles Morin	44d ago	Fit
Sold The Dream	85d ago	Fresh
Muy Barato	94d ago	Long break
Serendipitous Lady	114d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Kempton (AW) over 1m. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Based on 11 draws with historical results at this course and distance.