BetVictor Chase (Grade 3) – Punchestown

Punchestown

15:50

BetVictor Chase (Grade 3)

Date 2024-10-16

Distance 2m7f39y

Class Class 1

Going Good To Yielding

Type Chase

Surface Turf

Age Band 5yo+

Prize €16,815

Runners (9)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
4	Conflated Bay J:Jack Kennedy T:Gordon Elliott	J:Jack Kennedy T:Gordon Elliott	154	p	UU326-	165	184	161	168d	—	—	+14	41.4	0.50/1	2/1 33%
Ran well in top company last season, all chase wins gained left-handed, still respected
3	Minella Indo Bay J:Darragh O'Keeffe T:Henry De Bromhead	J:Darragh O'Keeffe T:Henry De Bromhead	160	—	/1443-	158	170	150	186d	—	—	+19	38.7	0.83/1	10/3 23%
2021 Gold Cup winner, third in Grand National, good record when fresh, won this last year
1	Hewick Bay J:Jordan Gainford T:John Joseph Hanlon	J:Jordan Gainford T:John Joseph Hanlon	166	b	0163-2	167	175	133	151d	—	—	+22	39.5	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Last season's King George hero, likely to be well primed but no easy task under big burden
8	Minella Crooner Bay J:Danny Gilligan T:Gordon Elliott	J:Danny Gilligan T:Gordon Elliott	154	p	33PP1-	149	167	120	165d	—	—	+26	37.8	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Ended last season on a good note with big Punchestown handicap win, runs well when fresh
7	French Dynamite Bay J:Mark Walsh T:M F Morris	J:Mark Walsh T:M F Morris	154	tp	-24702	144	164	134	11d	—	—	+20	33.1	1.63/1	13/2 13%
A long time since his last chase win, beaten by Visionarian at Gowran 11 days ago
5	Desertmore House Bay J:Ricky Doyle T:Martin Brassil	J:Ricky Doyle T:Martin Brassil	154	tp	1843-P	143	154	123	21d	—	—	+20	24.3	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Pulled up when bidding for repeat Kerry National win, hard to make a case for him here
6	Espanito Bello Grey J:Michael O'Sullivan T:Barry Connell	J:Michael O'Sullivan T:Barry Connell	154	v	PU3UP-	147	156	139	198d	—	—	+22	25	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Is 2-13 over fences, most effective on testing ground, probably best watched on return
NR	Visionarian Bay J:Keith Donoghue T:Gavin Cromwell	J:Keith Donoghue T:Gavin Cromwell	162	—	12-P01	150	162	-	11d	—	—	—	25	—	—
Excellent strike rate in chases (5-12), got a soft touch at Gowran, this is much tougher
NR	Hurricane Georgie Bay J:Sam Ewing T:Gordon Elliott	J:Sam Ewing T:Gordon Elliott	150	p	1F6718	140	166	129	21d	—	—	—	29.2	—	—
Won well at Galway on penultimate start, faces a demanding task at these weights

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Conflated	2/1	2/1	2/1	15/8	2/1
Minella Indo	3/1	10/3	16/5	3/1	3/1
Hewick	4/1	7/2	7/2	10/3	10/3
Minella Crooner	13/2	6/1	6/1	13/2	13/2
French Dynamite	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2	11/2
Desertmore House	25/1	25/1	22/1	18/1	22/1
Espanito Bello	40/1	28/1	28/1	25/1	25/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Conflated

41.4

OR: 28.8 Form: 4.3 Odds: 8.4

2/1

2nd

Hewick

39.5

OR: 29.3 Form: 5 Odds: 5.2

4/1

3rd

Minella Indo

38.7

OR: 27 Form: 6 Odds: 5.7

10/3

Minella Crooner

37.8

OR: 24.8 Form: 9.7 Odds: 3.3

13/2

French Dynamite

33.1

OR: 23.5 Form: 6 Odds: 3.6

13/2

Hurricane Georgie

29.2

OR: 22.5 Form: 6.7 Odds: 0

—

Espanito Bello

OR: 24.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

40/1

Visionarian

OR: 25 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Desertmore House

24.3

OR: 23.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

25/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Hewick	167	175	133
Conflated	165	184	161
Minella Indo	158	170	150
Visionarian	150	162	—
Minella Crooner	149	167	120
Espanito Bello	147	156	139
French Dynamite	144	164	134
Desertmore House	143	154	123
Hurricane Georgie	140	166	129

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
French Dynamite	11d ago	Quick return
Visionarian	11d ago	Quick return
Desertmore House	21d ago	Fit
Hurricane Georgie	21d ago	Fit
Hewick	151d ago	Long break
Minella Crooner	165d ago	Long break
Conflated	168d ago	Long break
Minella Indo	186d ago	Long break
Espanito Bello	198d ago	Long break