Betfair Exchange Handicap – Chelmsford (AW)

Chelmsford (AW)

19:45

Betfair Exchange Handicap

Date 2024-10-17

Distance 6f

Class Class 4

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £5,757

Runners (13)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	Odds
9 (5)	Dorney Lake Bay J:Robert Havlin T:John & Thady Gosden	J:Robert Havlin T:John & Thady Gosden	135	t	110885	83	99	-	39d	—	—	-4	16.4	10/3 23%
Return to 6f looks a plus; interesting off a reduced mark in this grade on AW debut
1 (3)	Sir Les Patterson Bay J:Richard Kingscote T:Harry Eustace	J:Richard Kingscote T:Harry Eustace	138	b	1-1000	86	91	81	47d	—	—	+7	19.6	6/1 14%
Has form figures of 311 on AW and looks interesting back in this sphere; drops in trip
4 (1)	Crimson Sand Bay J:Darragh Keenan T:Simon Earle	J:Darragh Keenan T:Simon Earle	138	—	6-1951	85	94	78	5d	—	—	0	12.4	11/2 15%
C&D win last Saturday took his Chelmsford form figures to 12422222311; solid chance
7 (7)	Lion's House Bay J:Aidan Keeley T:Roger Varian	J:Aidan Keeley T:Roger Varian	136	—	11-6	84	92	70	12d	—	—	-1	12.1	11/2 15%
The least exposed contender; still open to further progress and warrants respect
6 (9)	Change For Good Bay J:James Doyle T:Hamad Al Jehani	J:James Doyle T:Hamad Al Jehani	137	p	8-3477	85	91	-	54d	—	—	0	12.1	7/1 13%
Possibilities off reduced mark, provided he takes well to headgear and AW surface
3 (11)	Batal Dubai Bay J:Trevor Whelan T:Harry Charlton	J:Trevor Whelan T:Harry Charlton	138	—	304070	85	96	75	40d	—	—	+3	11.1	10/1 9%
Defied a 2lb higher mark in this race 12 months ago; major chance if back to best
8 (4)	Dutch Kingdom Bay J:Liam Wright(5) T:Darryll Holland	J:Liam Wright(5) T:Darryll Holland	135	tb	616615	82	93	71	20d	—	—	+12	19.1	10/1 9%
All wins at 7f-8.5f; something to prove off career-high mark dropped in distance
10 (10)	Hedge Fund Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:William Muir & Chris Grassick	J:Lewis Edmunds T:William Muir & Chris Grassick	132	—	066724	80	94	84	9d	—	—	+7	12.4	20/1 5%
Best form at 5f; not crying out for this return to 6f; others preferred
2 (8)	Havana Pusey Bay J:Sean D Bowen(3) T:John Gallagher	J:Sean D Bowen(3) T:John Gallagher	138	—	713920	85	97	-	32d	—	—	+11	16.5	22/1 4%
Fairly useful on turf; has the ability to get involved, provided she takes to AW
13 (6)	Rebel Path Bay J:Olivia Haines(7) T:Stuart Williams	J:Olivia Haines(7) T:Stuart Williams	124	v	636076	71	94	84	34d	—	—	+4	6.6	40/1 2%
Long losing spell continues; recorded sole win over three years ago
11 (2)	Lequinto Bay J:Ray Dawson T:Tony Carroll	J:Ray Dawson T:Tony Carroll	130	—	0-8870	77	93	58	12d	—	—	+5	7.2	66/1 1%
Holds weak claims on 2024 form and is best watched
NR (13)	Cajetan Bay J:TBC T:Jack Channon	J: T:Jack Channon	137	p	6-1618	85	95	71	12d	—	—	—	8.8	—
2-2 on AW, the wins gained in the spring; may have more to offer back in this sphere
NR (12)	Kit Gabriel Bay J:TBC T:David Loughnane	J: T:David Loughnane	126	p	3-8038	73	92	70	14d	—	—	—	7.9	—
Defied higher marks in 2021 and 2023; less than solid on 2024 form

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Dorney Lake	3/1	10/3	3/1	11/4	11/4
Sir Les Patterson	6/1	6/1	6/1	11/2	6/1
Crimson Sand	11/2	11/2	11/2	5/1	5/1
Lion's House	11/2	11/2	11/2	11/2	11/2
Change For Good	13/2	6/1	13/2	13/2	7/1
Batal Dubai	9/1	9/1	9/1	10/1	10/1
Dutch Kingdom	10/1	10/1	10/1	9/1	10/1
Hedge Fund	20/1	18/1	18/1	20/1	18/1
Havana Pusey	22/1	20/1	20/1	20/1	20/1
Rebel Path	40/1	28/1	33/1	33/1	33/1
Lequinto	66/1	50/1	50/1	40/1	40/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Sir Les Patterson

19.6

OR: 9 Form: 7 Odds: 3.6

6/1

2nd

Dutch Kingdom

19.1

OR: 8 Form: 9 Odds: 2.1

10/1

3rd

Havana Pusey

16.5

OR: 8.8 Form: 6.4 Odds: 1.4

22/1

Dorney Lake

16.4

OR: 8.3 Form: 2 Odds: 6.2

10/3

Crimson Sand

12.4

OR: 8.8 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

11/2

Hedge Fund

12.4

OR: 7.5 Form: 3.5 Odds: 1.4

20/1

Lion's House

12.1

OR: 8.5 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

11/2

Change For Good

12.1

OR: 8.8 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

7/1

Batal Dubai

11.1

OR: 8.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

10/1

Cajetan

8.8

OR: 8.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Kit Gabriel

7.9

OR: 5.8 Form: 2.1 Odds: 0

—

Lequinto

7.2

OR: 6.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

66/1

Rebel Path

6.6

OR: 5.3 Form: 0.6 Odds: 0.8

40/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Sir Les Patterson	86	91	81
Crimson Sand	85	94	78
Change For Good	85	91	—
Batal Dubai	85	96	75
Havana Pusey	85	97	—
Cajetan	85	95	71
Lion's House	84	92	70
Dorney Lake	83	99	—
Dutch Kingdom	82	93	71
Hedge Fund	80	94	84
Lequinto	77	93	58
Kit Gabriel	73	92	70
Rebel Path	71	94	84

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Crimson Sand	5d ago	Quick return
Hedge Fund	9d ago	Quick return
Lion's House	12d ago	Quick return
Lequinto	12d ago	Quick return
Cajetan	12d ago	Quick return
Kit Gabriel	14d ago	Fit
Dutch Kingdom	20d ago	Fit
Havana Pusey	32d ago	Fit
Rebel Path	34d ago	Fit
Dorney Lake	39d ago	Fit
Batal Dubai	40d ago	Fit
Sir Les Patterson	47d ago	Fresh
Change For Good	54d ago	Fresh