Highclere Thoroughbred Racing Stakes (Registered As The Radley Stakes) (Listed Race) (Fillies)

Newbury

14:00

Date 2024-10-26

Distance 7f

Class Class 1

Going Heavy

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 2yo

Prize £19,849

Runners (10)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
9 (5)	Too Much Heaven Bay J:Sean Levey T:Richard Hannon	J:Sean Levey T:Richard Hannon	128	—	1	-	100	84	51d	—	—	-11	19.4	0.50/1	2/1 33%
Made all for easy success in newcomers' event over C&D last month; promising filly
8 (9)	Supermodel Bay J:Tom Marquand T:William Haggas	J:Tom Marquand T:William Haggas	128	—	1	-	93	76	29d	—	—	-3	15.2	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Readily justified favouritism in Haydock contest on heavy ground; useful prospect
7 (7)	Sea To Sky Bay J:Hector Crouch T:Ralph Beckett	J:Hector Crouch T:Ralph Beckett	128	—	21	-	96	74	35d	—	—	+4	17.5	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Won at Newmarket five weeks ago; similar type to stablemate Saqqara Sands
4 (1)	Naina Bay J:Silvestre De Sousa T:John Ryan	J:Silvestre De Sousa T:John Ryan	128	—	116118	85	97	89	15d	—	—	+15	25.8	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Record of 4-6 since upped to 7f; faced a stiff task in Group 3 most recently
6 (3)	Saqqara Sands Bay J:Rob Hornby T:Ralph Beckett	J:Rob Hornby T:Ralph Beckett	128	—	21	-	97	77	28d	—	—	+8	15.6	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Won at Newmarket four weeks ago; helps to give Ralph Beckett a promising hand
5 (6)	Santa Savana Grey J:Neil Callan T:Rod Millman	J:Neil Callan T:Rod Millman	128	h	15864	85	97	89	28d	—	—	+6	12.5	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Ran well last time but is 0-4 since debut win and others are preferred
1 (2)	Ellaria Sand Bay J:David Egan T:Ollie Sangster	J:David Egan T:Ollie Sangster	128	—	412395	82	93	88	21d	—	—	+9	14.4	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Ran well in the Two Year Old Trophy last time but others look less exposed
3 (8)	Liberalised Bay J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	128	—	1853	90	99	88	50d	—	—	+12	17.6	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Has a respectable rating but probably isn't crying out for step back up to 7f
2 (4)	Isabella Castile Bay J:George Bass T:Jack Channon	J:George Bass T:Jack Channon	128	—	931	79	87	64	12d	—	—	+16	20.4	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Won well on heavy ground at Windsor most recently and may progress further
10 (10)	Twafeeg Bay J:Jim Crowley T:Archie Watson	J:Jim Crowley T:Archie Watson	128	—	170	89	99	93	21d	—	—	+12	15.7	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Looked a useful sort on debut but has taken a couple of backward steps since

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Too Much Heaven	7/4	2/1	7/4
Supermodel	7/2	10/3	7/2
Sea To Sky	6/1	5/1	6/1
Naina	15/2	8/1	15/2
Saqqara Sands	9/1	10/1	9/1
Santa Savana	22/1	16/1	16/1
Ellaria Sand	18/1	20/1	18/1
Liberalised	22/1	14/1	22/1
Isabella Castile	28/1	25/1	25/1
Twafeeg	28/1	22/1	28/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Naina

25.8

OR: 8.8 Form: 14 Odds: 3.1

8/1

2nd

Isabella Castile

20.4

OR: 7.3 Form: 12.1 Odds: 1.1

28/1

3rd

Too Much Heaven

19.4

OR: 0 Form: 10 Odds: 9.4

2/1

Liberalised

17.6

OR: 10 Form: 6 Odds: 1.6

22/1

Sea To Sky

17.5

OR: 0 Form: 13.5 Odds: 4

6/1

Twafeeg

15.7

OR: 9.8 Form: 5 Odds: 1

28/1

Saqqara Sands

15.6

OR: 0 Form: 13.5 Odds: 2.1

10/1

Supermodel

15.2

OR: 0 Form: 10 Odds: 5.2

7/2

Ellaria Sand

14.4

OR: 8 Form: 5 Odds: 1.4

20/1

Santa Savana

12.5

OR: 8.8 Form: 2 Odds: 1.7

22/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Liberalised	90	99	88
Twafeeg	89	99	93
Naina	85	97	89
Santa Savana	85	97	89
Ellaria Sand	82	93	88
Isabella Castile	79	87	64
Too Much Heaven	—	100	84
Supermodel	—	93	76
Sea To Sky	—	96	74
Saqqara Sands	—	97	77

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Isabella Castile	12d ago	Quick return
Naina	15d ago	Fit
Ellaria Sand	21d ago	Fit
Twafeeg	21d ago	Fit
Saqqara Sands	28d ago	Fit
Santa Savana	28d ago	Fit
Supermodel	29d ago	Fit
Sea To Sky	35d ago	Fit
Liberalised	50d ago	Fresh
Too Much Heaven	51d ago	Fresh