Best Racing Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

20:30

Best Racing Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap

Date 2024-10-28

Distance 1m13y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £4,711

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
2 (6)	Savanna King Grey J:Luke Morris T:Joseph Parr	J:Luke Morris T:Joseph Parr	137	p	543747	64	75	-	27d	—	—	-8	9.6	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Been expensive to follow but the handicapper's given him every chance on his AW debut
4 (9)	Adelabella Bay J:Darragh Keenan T:Michael Wigham	J:Darragh Keenan T:Michael Wigham	136	—	211534	63	75	61	19d	—	—	-1	14.8	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Back on her last successful mark but she'll need to improve on previous AW efforts
6 (11)	Bushfire Chestnut J:Callum Hutchinson T:Gemma Tutty	J:Callum Hutchinson T:Gemma Tutty	132	p	732454	59	80	74	10d	—	—	-8	9.4	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Win and a close second to his name from four runs over C&D; potentially well treated
1 (8)	Mercurius Power Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:Jessica Macey	J:Lewis Edmunds T:Jessica Macey	137	tp	544194	64	76	65	32d	—	—	+1	11.4	2.00/1	8/1 11%
This trip on Tapeta is what he's all about and he's quite capable of bouncing back
5 (3)	Mount King Chestnut J:Frederick Larson(3) T:Tim Easterby	J:Frederick Larson(3) T:Tim Easterby	135	tp	435539	62	78	-	28d	—	—	-1	8.4	2.25/1	9/1 10%
AW debut; no explanation offered for his latest poor effort and others are more convincing
11 (2)	Enzos Angel Grey J:Hector Crouch T:Neil Mulholland	J:Hector Crouch T:Neil Mulholland	129	t	642990	56	78	61	146d	—	—	-4	5.7	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Habitual hard-puller; stays further and will want a proper test over this trip
7 (7)	King Of York Bay J:Dale Swift T:Scott Dixon	J:Dale Swift T:Scott Dixon	132	p	770874	59	73	64	11d	—	—	-6	5.6	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Fine at this trip and is well handicapped having returned to form here (7f) 11 days ago
9 (4)	Rise Hall Bay J:Billy Garritty T:Geoff Oldroyd	J:Billy Garritty T:Geoff Oldroyd	132	p	-44848	59	77	26	89d	—	—	-3	4.4	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Been on the downgrade in recent times; tried in another different form of headgear tonight
8 (5)	Kondratiev Wave Chestnut J:Jack Doughty(5) T:Tony Carroll	J:Jack Doughty(5) T:Tony Carroll	132	p	213131	59	71	64	20d	—	—	+19	23.6	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Only run twice on Tapeta and his revised mark will test him on the different surface
3 (1)	Dr Rio Bay J:Zak Wheatley(3) T:Declan Carroll	J:Zak Wheatley(3) T:Declan Carroll	136	—	431521	63	72	-	34d	—	—	+16	22.1	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Little room for error off this mark; will want one of his better breaks down to this trip
10 (12)	Makeen Bay J:Joe Fanning T:Julie Camacho	J:Joe Fanning T:Julie Camacho	132	v	015547	59	39	-	21d	—	—	+2	5	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Much better treated on the AW but the visor seems to have lost its impact
12 (10)	Mickey Mongoose Bay J:Saffie Osborne T:Olly Williams	J:Saffie Osborne T:Olly Williams	128	—	046000	55	79	43	59d	—	—	-1	2	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Wildly inconsistent; capable of popping up but others have more pressing claims

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Savanna King	9/2	4/1	9/2	4/1	5/1
Adelabella	11/2	11/2	11/2	5/1	11/2
Bushfire	9/2	9/2	5/1	9/2	7/2
Mercurius Power	8/1	8/1	8/1	8/1	15/2
Mount King	8/1	9/1	17/2	8/1	9/1
Enzos Angel	10/1	10/1	10/1	8/1	10/1
King Of York	8/1	7/1	7/1	7/1	11/2
Rise Hall	12/1	12/1	12/1	11/1	12/1
Kondratiev Wave	18/1	14/1	16/1	16/1	14/1
Dr Rio	18/1	16/1	18/1	16/1	18/1
Makeen	33/1	28/1	33/1	25/1	28/1
Mickey Mongoose	33/1	33/1	33/1	28/1	28/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Kondratiev Wave

23.6

OR: 2.3 Form: 20 Odds: 1.4

18/1

2nd

Dr Rio

22.1

OR: 3.3 Form: 17.1 Odds: 1.7

18/1

3rd

Adelabella

14.8

OR: 3.3 Form: 7.1 Odds: 4.4

11/2

Mercurius Power

11.4

OR: 3.5 Form: 5 Odds: 2.9

8/1

Savanna King

9.6

OR: 3.5 Form: 0.9 Odds: 5.2

5/1

Bushfire

9.4

OR: 2.3 Form: 2.1 Odds: 5

5/1

Mount King

8.4

OR: 3 Form: 2.7 Odds: 2.7

9/1

Enzos Angel

5.7

OR: 1.5 Form: 1.5 Odds: 2.7

10/1

King Of York

5.6

OR: 2.3 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

8/1

Makeen

OR: 2.3 Form: 2 Odds: 0.8

33/1

Rise Hall

4.4

OR: 2.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

12/1

Mickey Mongoose

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

33/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Savanna King	64	75	—
Mercurius Power	64	76	65
Adelabella	63	75	61
Dr Rio	63	72	—
Mount King	62	78	—
Bushfire	59	80	74
King Of York	59	73	64
Rise Hall	59	77	26
Kondratiev Wave	59	71	64
Makeen	59	39	—
Enzos Angel	56	78	61
Mickey Mongoose	55	79	43

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Bushfire	10d ago	Quick return
King Of York	11d ago	Quick return
Adelabella	19d ago	Fit
Kondratiev Wave	20d ago	Fit
Makeen	21d ago	Fit
Savanna King	27d ago	Fit
Mount King	28d ago	Fit
Mercurius Power	32d ago	Fit
Dr Rio	34d ago	Fit
Mickey Mongoose	59d ago	Fresh
Rise Hall	89d ago	Fresh
Enzos Angel	146d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 1m13y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 6 draws with historical results at this course and distance.