racingtv.com Handicap – Kempton (AW)

Kempton (AW)

18:30

racingtv.com Handicap

Date 2024-11-06

Distance 1m2f219y

Class Class 5

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £4,187

Runners (10)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	Odds
8 (3)	Umbria Grey J:Saffie Osborne T:Ed Walker	J:Saffie Osborne T:Ed Walker	131	—	91347	67	82	58	22d	—	—	-20	22.9	11/10 48%
Wolverhampton winner before unlucky 3rd over C&D; below par twice since; still early days
7 (5)	Angel Rose Bay J:Rossa Ryan T:Ralph Beckett	J:Rossa Ryan T:Ralph Beckett	132	—	664	68	72	49	38d	—	—	-9	9.9	9/2 18%
Best effort when 4th over 1m2f at Epsom in September; Rossa Ryan is on for handicap debut
1 (2)	Tahitian Prince Bay J:Neil Callan T:George Baker	J:Neil Callan T:George Baker	140	tp	776796	72	84	48	35d	—	—	-4	9.1	13/2 13%
On a dangerous mark and retains ability but still to prove he needs this far
2 (1)	Silver Nightfall Bay J:Sean D Bowen(3) T:Jim & Suzi Best	J:Sean D Bowen(3) T:Jim & Suzi Best	139	v	453221	71	77	56	27d	—	—	+15	24.8	8/1 11%
Running well since a visor was added; 2lb rise for narrow win last month is fair enough
4 (7)	Miss Bielsa Chestnut J:Jack Mitchell T:Simon & Ed Crisford	J:Jack Mitchell T:Simon & Ed Crisford	136	t	1398	72	74	48	21d	—	—	+5	12.1	12/1 8%
Debut win came in a weak race; well held in both handicaps; too much to prove at present
9 (4)	Tasmanian Legend Bay J:Kieran O'Neill T:Alice Haynes	J:Kieran O'Neill T:Alice Haynes	131	h	555550	67	83	62	11d	—	—	+1	5.6	18/1 5%
Back to a good mark but his stamina for today's trip is not yet assured
10 (6)	Dubai Immo Chestnut J:Rob Hornby T:Paddy Butler	J:Rob Hornby T:Paddy Butler	127	—	233198	59	80	67	20d	—	—	+7	9.3	40/1 2%
2 AW wins for W Stone in 2024; well held on turf for new yard; risky despite return to AW
NR (8)	Graignes Bay J:Charles Bishop T:George Baker	J:Charles Bishop T:George Baker	138	ht	068506	70	83	78	12d	—	—	—	5	—
Tumbled down the weights in 2024 but without looking like capitalising; yard runs two
NR (10)	Bohemian Breeze Grey J:Rhys Clutterbuck T:Gary & Josh Moore	J:Rhys Clutterbuck T:Gary & Josh Moore	135	—	362360	67	81	52	21d	—	—	—	7.3	—
Three wins last year and he's 8lb lower than for the latest; low-key stable debut latest
NR (9)	Climate Precedent Chestnut J:Jordan Williams(5) T:Ryan Potter	J:Jordan Williams(5) T:Ryan Potter	134	—	24492-	66	77	-	—	—	—	—	10	—
Ran well on his last Flat start but it was 494 days ago; more recent jumps form is mixed

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Umbria	evn	11/10	evn	10/11	10/11
Angel Rose	4/1	7/2	7/2	7/2	9/2
Tahitian Prince	6/1	13/2	13/2	13/2	6/1
Silver Nightfall	7/1	8/1	15/2	15/2	7/1
Miss Bielsa	12/1	11/1	11/1	11/1	11/1
Tasmanian Legend	18/1	18/1	18/1	18/1	18/1
Dubai Immo	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1	33/1
Graignes	-	-	-	-	-
Bohemian Breeze	-	-	-	-	-
Climate Precedent	-	-	-	-	-

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Silver Nightfall

24.8

OR: 5.3 Form: 16.9 Odds: 2.7

8/1

2nd

Umbria

22.9

OR: 4.3 Form: 4.5 Odds: 14.2

11/10

3rd

Miss Bielsa

12.1

OR: 5.5 Form: 4.5 Odds: 2.1

12/1

Climate Precedent

OR: 4 Form: 6 Odds: 0

—

Angel Rose

9.9

OR: 4.5 Form: 0 Odds: 5.4

9/2

Dubai Immo

9.3

OR: 2.3 Form: 6.5 Odds: 0.6

40/1

Tahitian Prince

9.1

OR: 5.5 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

13/2

Bohemian Breeze

7.3

OR: 4.3 Form: 3 Odds: 0

—

Tasmanian Legend

5.6

OR: 4.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

18/1

Graignes

OR: 5 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Tahitian Prince	72	84	48
Miss Bielsa	72	74	48
Silver Nightfall	71	77	56
Graignes	70	83	78
Angel Rose	68	72	49
Umbria	67	82	58
Tasmanian Legend	67	83	62
Bohemian Breeze	67	81	52
Climate Precedent	66	77	—
Dubai Immo	59	80	67

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Tasmanian Legend	11d ago	Quick return
Graignes	12d ago	Quick return
Dubai Immo	20d ago	Fit
Miss Bielsa	21d ago	Fit
Bohemian Breeze	21d ago	Fit
Umbria	22d ago	Fit
Silver Nightfall	27d ago	Fit
Tahitian Prince	35d ago	Fit
Angel Rose	38d ago	Fit
Climate Precedent	—	—