Virgin Bet November Handicap – Doncaster

Doncaster

15:45

Virgin Bet November Handicap

Date 2024-11-09

Distance 1m3f197y

Class Class 2

Going Soft

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £36,078

Runners (23)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	Odds
11 (12)	Valvano Chestnut J:Hector Crouch T:Ralph Beckett	J:Hector Crouch T:Ralph Beckett	127	—	1-233	97	113	94	28d	—	—	+9	22.8	6/1 14%
Third at York on handicap debut (10.2f); easily the most lightly raced and dam won at 1m4f
15 (17)	Master Builder Grey J:William Buick T:David Menuisier	J:William Buick T:David Menuisier	126	—	215313	96	111	93	29d	—	—	+16	28.6	6/1 14%
Third to Minstrel Knight last time; progressive 3yo but further improvement is needed
22 (16)	Minstrel Knight Bay J:Aidan Keeley T:Edward Bethell	J:Aidan Keeley T:Edward Bethell	118	—	212311	88	111	87	29d	—	—	+23	34.8	13/2 13%
Convincing over 1m6f in the mud on last two outings; the type to find further improvement
6 (9)	Chillingham Bay J:Callum Rodriguez T:Edward Bethell	J:Callum Rodriguez T:Edward Bethell	131	p	-73302	96	112	93	49d	—	—	+12	21.6	8/1 11%
Reliable sort over 1m4f-1m6f and ideally suited by softer than good; each-way candidate
8 (5)	Stressfree Chestnut J:Jamie Spencer T:David O'Meara	J:Jamie Spencer T:David O'Meara	128	—	331223	93	111	100	14d	—	—	+17	25.9	10/1 9%
In fine form; spent entire handicap career at about 1m2f but 1m4f looks well worth a shot
19 (15)	Waxing Gibbous Bay J:Sean D Bowen(3) T:David Menuisier	J:Sean D Bowen(3) T:David Menuisier	120	—	-21225	85	111	76	49d	—	—	+12	21.4	10/1 9%
Below-form favourite over 1m5f on heavy ground seven weeks ago but could bounce back
4 (6)	Miller Spirit Bay J:Tom Queally T:Gary & Josh Moore	J:Tom Queally T:Gary & Josh Moore	132	—	424111	97	115	86	15d	—	—	+30	36.7	12/1 8%
Transformed with 1m4f wins in the mud on last three starts; up 7lb rise but a huge player
7 (11)	Insanity Bay J:Rossa Ryan T:Alan King	J:Rossa Ryan T:Alan King	130	—	5-1218	95	112	104	78d	—	—	+7	13	14/1 7%
Looked to have potential still before disappointing at the York Ebor meeting last time
17 (1)	Flash Bardot Bay J:David Probert T:Jack Channon	J:David Probert T:Jack Channon	123	—	859932	88	116	91	15d	—	—	+12	18.2	14/1 7%
Excels in the mud; outgunned by Miller Spirit last time but a strong each-way player
16 (8)	Lord Melbourne Bay J:Jack Doughty(5) T:Ralph Beckett	J:Jack Doughty(5) T:Ralph Beckett	125	—	551413	90	112	102	32d	—	—	+19	24.4	18/1 5%
Unraced over this far when in the mud; needs extra but going well and 5lb claimer rides
13 (18)	Adjuvant Bay J:Wayne Hassett(3) T:Michael Bell	J:Wayne Hassett(3) T:Michael Bell	127	—	200-74	92	111	81	168d	—	—	+6	12.2	20/1 5%
Only two races in 2024 (May) and ran respectably on second occasion; well in on best form
20 (22)	Kotari Bay J:Jason Watson T:Gary & Josh Moore	J:Jason Watson T:Gary & Josh Moore	120	—	111544	85	111	101	32d	—	—	+11	14.6	25/1 4%
Hat-trick in the spring; respectable efforts since but others have more pressing claims
23 (23)	Three Dons Bay J:Molly Gunn(7) T:Tony Carroll	J:Molly Gunn(7) T:Tony Carroll	116	—	131121	81	111	91	21d	—	—	+27	30.8	25/1 4%
Form figures of 1311131121 back on turf but this race is vastly more competitive
10 (19)	Simply Sondheim Bay J:Neil Callan T:George Baker	J:Neil Callan T:George Baker	128	p	694851	93	112	89	41d	—	—	+19	21.3	50/1 2%
Back to life winning at Epsom (1m2f, heavy) in first-time cheekpieces; enters calculations
14 (2)	Oneforthegutter Bay J:Richard Kingscote T:Ian Williams	J:Richard Kingscote T:Ian Williams	126	p	523736	91	111	103	63d	—	—	+13	14.8	40/1 2%
Last five races were 1m6f and he ran well to be placed in three, third of 20 in the Ebor
2 (21)	Maxi King Bay J:David Egan T:Raphael E Freire	J:David Egan T:Raphael E Freire	137	—	114056	102	109	82	45d	—	—	+13	15.6	50/1 2%
Acts on heavy; well beaten in a big handicap, Group 2 and Listed race on last three starts
3 (13)	Beamish Chestnut J:Kieran Shoemark T:Archie Watson	J:Kieran Shoemark T:Archie Watson	133	p	609244	98	113	98	44d	—	—	+13	15.1	40/1 2%
While a case can be made on best efforts, he does not look the percentage call
5 (7)	Paradias Bay J:James Doyle T:Alan King	J:James Doyle T:Alan King	131	—	-20105	96	112	103	56d	—	—	+16	18.1	40/1 2%
1m1f winner at Glorious Goodwood but 1m4f and soft ground both give him more to prove
9 (4)	Auld Toon Loon Bay J:Pierre-Louis Jamin T:Tom Dascombe	J:Pierre-Louis Jamin T:Tom Dascombe	128	t	2574-1	93	108	97	19d	—	—	+19	21.3	50/1 2%
Wide-margin win at Bath (1m2f, soft) on stable debut was a major new high; up 10lb
18 (14)	Dark Moon Rising Bay J:Jimmy Quinn T:Kevin Ryan	J:Jimmy Quinn T:Kevin Ryan	122	b	019233	87	112	92	51d	—	—	+17	19.6	50/1 2%
Has a mixed record on good to soft and was soundly beaten on his two appearances on soft
21 (20)	Austrian Theory Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Tim Easterby	J:Cam Hardie T:Tim Easterby	119	—	604241	84	110	98	19d	—	—	+20	21.5	50/1 2%
Finally made the most of his reduced mark last time (1m2f, soft); unraced beyond 10.2f
12 (10)	Two Brothers Bay J:Billy Garritty T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Billy Garritty T:Michael & David Easterby	127	v	130601	92	110	84	28d	—	—	+20	21.6	80/1 1%
Goes well on soft; back up 5lb to career-high mark and this race demands a career best
1 (3)	Wise Eagle Chestnut J:Paul Mulrennan T:Adam Nicol	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Adam Nicol	138	—	873062	103	111	99	19d	—	—	+18	19.5	125/1 1%
A place might be possible but he should be too exposed to win this off top weight

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Valvano	6/1	11/2	6/1	6/1	6/1
Master Builder	6/1	6/1	6/1	11/2	6/1
Minstrel Knight	6/1	6/1	6/1	13/2	6/1
Chillingham	8/1	8/1	8/1	8/1	8/1
Stressfree	9/1	9/1	10/1	9/1	10/1
Waxing Gibbous	9/1	9/1	9/1	10/1	9/1
Miller Spirit	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Insanity	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	12/1
Flash Bardot	12/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	12/1
Lord Melbourne	16/1	16/1	16/1	18/1	16/1
Adjuvant	16/1	16/1	18/1	20/1	16/1
Kotari	25/1	25/1	25/1	25/1	25/1
Three Dons	25/1	25/1	25/1	25/1	25/1
Simply Sondheim	50/1	40/1	40/1	33/1	50/1
Oneforthegutter	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1
Maxi King	40/1	50/1	50/1	40/1	50/1
Beamish	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1
Paradias	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1
Auld Toon Loon	50/1	40/1	50/1	40/1	50/1
Dark Moon Rising	50/1	33/1	33/1	40/1	33/1
Austrian Theory	50/1	50/1	50/1	50/1	50/1
Two Brothers	80/1	50/1	50/1	50/1	50/1
Wise Eagle	100/1	100/1	100/1	125/1	100/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Miller Spirit

36.7

OR: 11.8 Form: 23 Odds: 1.9

12/1

2nd

Minstrel Knight

34.8

OR: 9.5 Form: 22 Odds: 3.3

13/2

3rd

Three Dons

30.8

OR: 7.8 Form: 22.1 Odds: 1

25/1

Master Builder

28.6

OR: 11.5 Form: 13.5 Odds: 3.6

6/1

Stressfree

25.9

OR: 10.8 Form: 12.6 Odds: 2.5

10/1

Lord Melbourne

24.4

OR: 10 Form: 13 Odds: 1.4

18/1

Valvano

22.8

OR: 11.8 Form: 7 Odds: 4

6/1

Chillingham

21.6

OR: 11.5 Form: 7.4 Odds: 2.7

8/1

Two Brothers

21.6

OR: 10.5 Form: 10.6 Odds: 0.5

80/1

Austrian Theory

21.5

OR: 8.5 Form: 12.5 Odds: 0.5

50/1

Waxing Gibbous

21.4

OR: 8.8 Form: 10 Odds: 2.7

10/1

Simply Sondheim

21.3

OR: 10.8 Form: 10 Odds: 0.6

50/1

Auld Toon Loon

21.3

OR: 10.8 Form: 10 Odds: 0.6

50/1

Dark Moon Rising

19.6

OR: 9.3 Form: 9.6 Odds: 0.7

50/1

Wise Eagle

19.5

OR: 13.3 Form: 5.9 Odds: 0.3

125/1

Flash Bardot

18.2

OR: 9.5 Form: 7.1 Odds: 1.6

14/1

Paradias

18.1

OR: 11.5 Form: 6 Odds: 0.6

40/1

Maxi King

15.6

OR: 13 Form: 2 Odds: 0.6

50/1

Beamish

15.1

OR: 12 Form: 2.5 Odds: 0.6

40/1

Oneforthegutter

14.8

OR: 10.3 Form: 4 Odds: 0.6

40/1

Kotari

14.6

OR: 8.8 Form: 5 Odds: 0.9

25/1

Insanity

OR: 11.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

14/1

Adjuvant

12.2

OR: 10.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

20/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Wise Eagle	103	111	99
Maxi King	102	109	82
Beamish	98	113	98
Valvano	97	113	94
Miller Spirit	97	115	86
Master Builder	96	111	93
Chillingham	96	112	93
Paradias	96	112	103
Insanity	95	112	104
Stressfree	93	111	100
Simply Sondheim	93	112	89
Auld Toon Loon	93	108	97
Adjuvant	92	111	81
Two Brothers	92	110	84
Oneforthegutter	91	111	103
Lord Melbourne	90	112	102
Minstrel Knight	88	111	87
Flash Bardot	88	116	91
Dark Moon Rising	87	112	92
Waxing Gibbous	85	111	76
Kotari	85	111	101
Austrian Theory	84	110	98
Three Dons	81	111	91

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Stressfree	14d ago	Fit
Miller Spirit	15d ago	Fit
Flash Bardot	15d ago	Fit
Auld Toon Loon	19d ago	Fit
Austrian Theory	19d ago	Fit
Wise Eagle	19d ago	Fit
Three Dons	21d ago	Fit
Valvano	28d ago	Fit
Two Brothers	28d ago	Fit
Master Builder	29d ago	Fit
Minstrel Knight	29d ago	Fit
Lord Melbourne	32d ago	Fit
Kotari	32d ago	Fit
Simply Sondheim	41d ago	Fit
Beamish	44d ago	Fit
Maxi King	45d ago	Fit
Chillingham	49d ago	Fresh
Waxing Gibbous	49d ago	Fresh
Dark Moon Rising	51d ago	Fresh
Paradias	56d ago	Fresh
Oneforthegutter	63d ago	Fresh
Insanity	78d ago	Fresh
Adjuvant	168d ago	Long break

Pace Profile

Horse	Running Style
Valvano	Prominent
Two Brothers	Prominent
Stressfree	Hold Up
Paradias	Hold Up

Inferred from horse comments. 4 of 23 runners classified.