Gamble Responsibly At BetMGM 'Confined' Handicap (For Horses Which Have Won No More Than One Race)

Wolverhampton (AW)

17:00

Date 2024-11-15

Distance 7f36y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo

Prize £2,983

Winning Time 1m 28.32s (slow by 2.32s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Autumn Rose (IRE) Jack Doughty · Tony Carroll	100/30	Won
2nd	Buttercross Flyer (IRE) Joey Haynes · Scott Dixon	17/2	.5
3rd	Unreal Connection (GB) Rowan Scott · Gemma Tutty	11/2	3.25
4th	Nevernay (IRE) Andrea Pinna · Kevin Frost	16/1	0.05
5th	Go Wild (GB) Frederick Larson · Michael Appleby	33/1	2
6th	Shibuya Storm (IRE) Harry Davies · George Margarson	5/1	0.2
7th	Lincoln's Inn (IRE) Dylan Hogan · Michael Herrington	40/1	1.25
8th	Scarlet Lady (GB) Billy Loughnane · Philip McBride	13/2	0.3
9th	Port Hedland (GB) Trevor Whelan · Henry Candy	3/1F	2.25
10th	Alfheim (IRE) Fred Daly · George Boughey	22/1	2

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
7 (1)	Port Hedland Bay J:Trevor Whelan T:Henry Candy	J:Trevor Whelan T:Henry Candy	132	t	5-5304	62	79	65	51d	—	—	-14	10.3	0.63/1	5/2 29%
0-7 but has shown promise and today's step up to 7f could spark improvement
5 (3)	Unreal Connection Bay J:Rowan Scott T:Gemma Tutty	J:Rowan Scott T:Gemma Tutty	134	—	263260	64	76	58	8d	—	—	-4	11.3	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Dropped right away on recent stable debut; down in trip; chance on best form
10 (5)	Autumn Rose Bay J:Jack Doughty(5) T:Tony Carroll	J:Jack Doughty(5) T:Tony Carroll	129	—	518406	59	76	61	22d	—	—	-8	9.5	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Won a 7f handicap at Haydock off this mark for today's rider in July; up and down since
4 (2)	Shibuya Storm Bay J:Harry Davies T:George Margarson	J:Harry Davies T:George Margarson	135	—	31458	65	74	-	58d	—	—	-1	10.7	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Down the field in two handicap runs; hopes pinned on the extra furlong giving her a lift
2 (8)	Scarlet Lady Bay J:Billy Loughnane T:Philip McBride	J:Billy Loughnane T:Philip McBride	135	b	310748	65	71	46	13d	—	—	-3	9.1	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Not kicked on from her easy Yarmouth win in August; blinkers return but others preferred
11 (6)	Buttercross Flyer Bay J:Joey Haynes T:Scott Dixon	J:Joey Haynes T:Scott Dixon	127	—	742703	57	76	69	7d	—	—	0	8.5	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Had plenty of racing and needs to leave recent efforts behind to win
1 (4)	Nevernay Bay J:Andrea Pinna(7) T:Kevin Frost	J:Andrea Pinna(7) T:Kevin Frost	135	—	9U9367	65	74	34	15d	—	—	+1	6.3	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Low-key stable debut two weeks ago (1m); down in class but unconvincing overall
9 (11)	Alfheim Bay J:Fred Daly(7) T:George Boughey	J:Fred Daly(7) T:George Boughey	130	t	840807	60	68	35	33d	—	—	0	3.6	5.50/1	22/1 4%
No solid form over further in Ireland; big drop in trip on stable debut; drawn wide
6 (7)	Go Wild Bay J:Frederick Larson(3) T:Michael Appleby	J:Frederick Larson(3) T:Michael Appleby	134	p	832105	64	76	55	15d	—	—	+7	12	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Well held in two handicaps following a win in a weak fillies' novice at Lingfield (1m, AW)
12 (10)	Lincoln's Inn Grey J:Dylan Hogan T:Michael Herrington	J:Dylan Hogan T:Michael Herrington	127	h	7549-0	57	69	34	196d	—	—	-1	2.6	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Absent since low-key 6f run in May; unexposed but perhaps sharper for this return
NR (12)	Havana Force Grey J:TBC T:Marco Botti	J: T:Marco Botti	135	b	233455	65	75	61	13d	—	—	—	5.3	—	—
Placed in six of her nine starts; change of headgear today; widest draw to contend with
NR (9)	Doctor Awtaad Bay J:TBC T:David Evans	J: T:David Evans	130	—	755	60	72	18	23d	—	—	—	2.5	—	—
Well held at big prices in three 7f runs but some promise; R Ryan booked for h'cap debut

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Port Hedland	9/4	5/2	5/2	9/4	5/2
Unreal Connection	4/1	9/2	9/2	9/2	4/1
Autumn Rose	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2
Shibuya Storm	7/1	13/2	13/2	13/2	7/1
Scarlet Lady	11/2	6/1	6/1	13/2	6/1
Buttercross Flyer	9/1	11/1	10/1	10/1	17/2
Nevernay	18/1	20/1	20/1	20/1	16/1
Alfheim	20/1	22/1	22/1	22/1	20/1
Go Wild	20/1	22/1	22/1	22/1	14/1
Lincoln's Inn	33/1	33/1	33/1	33/1	22/1
Havana Force	-	-	-	-	-
Doctor Awtaad	-	-	-	-	-

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Go Wild

OR: 3.5 Form: 7.1 Odds: 1.4

22/1

2nd

Unreal Connection

11.3

OR: 3.5 Form: 3.4 Odds: 4.4

9/2

3rd

Shibuya Storm

10.7

OR: 3.8 Form: 3.6 Odds: 3.3

7/1

Port Hedland

10.3

OR: 3 Form: 0 Odds: 7.3

5/2

Autumn Rose

9.5

OR: 2.3 Form: 2 Odds: 5.2

9/2

Scarlet Lady

9.1

OR: 3.8 Form: 2 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Buttercross Flyer

8.5

OR: 1.8 Form: 4.5 Odds: 2.2

11/1

Nevernay

6.3

OR: 3.8 Form: 1.2 Odds: 1.4

20/1

Havana Force

5.3

OR: 3.8 Form: 1.5 Odds: 0

—

Alfheim

3.6

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

22/1

Lincoln's Inn

2.6

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

33/1

Doctor Awtaad

2.5

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Shibuya Storm	65	74	—
Scarlet Lady	65	71	46
Nevernay	65	74	34
Havana Force	65	75	61
Unreal Connection	64	76	58
Go Wild	64	76	55
Port Hedland	62	79	65
Alfheim	60	68	35
Doctor Awtaad	60	72	18
Autumn Rose	59	76	61
Buttercross Flyer	57	76	69
Lincoln's Inn	57	69	34

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Buttercross Flyer	7d ago	Quick return
Unreal Connection	8d ago	Quick return
Scarlet Lady	13d ago	Quick return
Havana Force	13d ago	Quick return
Nevernay	15d ago	Fit
Go Wild	15d ago	Fit
Autumn Rose	22d ago	Fit
Doctor Awtaad	23d ago	Fit
Alfheim	33d ago	Fit
Port Hedland	51d ago	Fresh
Shibuya Storm	58d ago	Fresh
Lincoln's Inn	196d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Wolverhampton (AW) over 7f36y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 8 draws with historical results at this course and distance.