Paddy Power From The Horses Mouth Podcast Beginners Chase

Leopardstown

12:35

Date 2024-12-27

Distance 2m1f

Class

Going Good To Yielding

Type Chase

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize €10,325

Runners (14)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
3	It's For Me Chestnut J:Daryl Jacob T:W P Mullins	J:Daryl Jacob T:W P Mullins	166	h	155/1-	-	-	-	407d	—	—	-16	22.5	0.34/1	11/8 42%
Off since maiden hurdle win in November 2023, obvious chance on chase debut for top yard
13	Nurburgring Bay J:J J Slevin T:Joseph Patrick O'Brien	J:J J Slevin T:Joseph Patrick O'Brien	160	t	43-133	-	136	132	33d	—	—	-17	7.3	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Talented dual-purpose sort, won the Galway Hurdle, gets weight from older rivals, claims
14	Birdie Or Bust Bay J:Rachael Blackmore T:Henry De Bromhead	J:Rachael Blackmore T:Henry De Bromhead	159	—	3513-4	-	137	51	41d	—	—	-14	5.7	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Dual hurdles winner, shaped as though in need of the run on chase debut, should go well
11	What's Up Darling Bay J:Sam Ewing T:Gordon Elliott	J:Sam Ewing T:Gordon Elliott	166	—	264-24	-	121	96	20d	—	—	-7	2.9	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Point and bumper winner, 1-7 over hurdles, trip may have been too far latest, may go well
10	Western Diego Bay J:Sean O'Keeffe T:W P Mullins	J:Sean O'Keeffe T:W P Mullins	166	h	8/513-	-	-	-	271d	—	—	-4	1.4	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Chasing debutant, placed in a Grade 2 novice hurdle latest, might prefer softer ground
9	The Big Doyen Bay J:Darragh O'Keeffe T:Peter Fahey	J:Darragh O'Keeffe T:Peter Fahey	166	—	23P-44	-	118	90	178d	—	—	-2	0.6	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Bumper winner, has some smart hurdles form, goes well fresh, check the market
8	Shanbally Kid Bay J:Michael O'Sullivan T:W P Mullins	J:Michael O'Sullivan T:W P Mullins	166	—	/483-8	-	112	83	11d	—	—	-2	0.6	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Bumper and maiden hurdle winner, placed in the Coral Cup, needs to jump better
1	Backtonormal b/br J:Keith Donoghue T:Gavin Cromwell	J:Keith Donoghue T:Gavin Cromwell	166	—	331-59	-	133	55	20d	—	—	-2	0.6	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Punchestown hurdles winner in May, didn't jump fluently latest, may need more experience
7	No Flies On Him Brown J:Mark McDonagh T:E J O'Grady	J:Mark McDonagh T:E J O'Grady	166	—	27P-60	-	113	30	20d	—	—	-1	0.5	20.00/1	80/1 1%
Course winner over timber at this meeting last year, poor in both chases, watch market
6	Mint Boy Bay J:Sean Flanagan T:Gavin Cromwell	J:Sean Flanagan T:Gavin Cromwell	166	—	217-37	-	129	73	13d	—	—	-1	0.4	20.00/1	80/1 1%
Two-time hurdles winner, 0-2 in chases, well beaten latest, down in trip, others preferred
4	Jeannot Lapin Chestnut J:Ricky Doyle T:Gearoid O'Loughlin	J:Ricky Doyle T:Gearoid O'Loughlin	166	—	33P-	-	-	-	—	—	—	+2	2.3	50.00/1	200/1 0%
Placed in one of three starts in points, pulled up latest start in that sphere, watch
2	Doctor Glide Chestnut J:Ben Harvey T:Tom Dreaper	J:Ben Harvey T:Tom Dreaper	166	—	032-P5	-	109	70	13d	—	—	-1	0.3	62.50/1	250/1 0%
Maiden hurdler, 0-2 over fences, beaten 42l on latest at Fairyhouse, unlikely winner
12	In The Trenches Bay J:Kieren Buckley T:Gavin Cromwell	J:Kieren Buckley T:Gavin Cromwell	160	—	222338	-	100	58	13d	—	—	+5	6.5	50.00/1	200/1 0%
0-12 over hurdles but has run well in defeat, well beaten on chase debut, others preferred
NR	Lisnagar Fortune Bay J:Danny Mullins T:W P Mullins	J:Danny Mullins T:W P Mullins	166	—	2/321-	-	-	-	348d	—	—	—	3.5	—	—
Chasing debutant, won a maiden hurdle when last seen, talented and respected for top yard

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
It's For Me	11/8	5/4	11/8	5/4	6/5
Nurburgring	5/2	11/4	5/2	5/2	9/4
Birdie Or Bust	7/2	10/3	10/3	10/3	3/1
What's Up Darling	8/1	15/2	8/1	8/1	8/1
Western Diego	16/1	18/1	16/1	18/1	14/1
The Big Doyen	50/1	40/1	40/1	40/1	50/1
Shanbally Kid	40/1	33/1	33/1	33/1	33/1
Backtonormal	40/1	33/1	40/1	40/1	50/1
No Flies On Him	66/1	50/1	50/1	66/1	80/1
Mint Boy	80/1	66/1	66/1	66/1	50/1
Jeannot Lapin	200/1	150/1	150/1	150/1	150/1
Doctor Glide	250/1	125/1	200/1	200/1	150/1
In The Trenches	200/1	100/1	125/1	150/1	100/1
Lisnagar Fortune	-	-	-	-	-

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

It's For Me

22.5

OR: 0 Form: 10 Odds: 12.5

11/8

2nd

Nurburgring

7.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 7.3

11/4

3rd

In The Trenches

6.5

OR: 0 Form: 6.1 Odds: 0.4

200/1

Birdie Or Bust

5.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 5.7

7/2

Lisnagar Fortune

3.5

OR: 0 Form: 3.5 Odds: 0

—

What's Up Darling

2.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.9

8/1

Jeannot Lapin

2.3

OR: 0 Form: 2.1 Odds: 0.2

200/1

Western Diego

1.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

18/1

The Big Doyen

0.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

50/1

Shanbally Kid

0.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

40/1

Backtonormal

0.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

50/1

No Flies On Him

0.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

80/1

Mint Boy

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

80/1

Doctor Glide

0.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

250/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
It's For Me	—	—	—
Nurburgring	—	136	132
Birdie Or Bust	—	137	51
What's Up Darling	—	121	96
Western Diego	—	—	—
The Big Doyen	—	118	90
Shanbally Kid	—	112	83
Backtonormal	—	133	55
No Flies On Him	—	113	30
Mint Boy	—	129	73
Jeannot Lapin	—	—	—
Doctor Glide	—	109	70
In The Trenches	—	100	58
Lisnagar Fortune	—	—	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Shanbally Kid	11d ago	Quick return
Mint Boy	13d ago	Quick return
Doctor Glide	13d ago	Quick return
In The Trenches	13d ago	Quick return
What's Up Darling	20d ago	Fit
Backtonormal	20d ago	Fit
No Flies On Him	20d ago	Fit
Nurburgring	33d ago	Fit
Birdie Or Bust	41d ago	Fit
The Big Doyen	178d ago	Long break
Western Diego	271d ago	Long break
Lisnagar Fortune	348d ago	Long break
It's For Me	407d ago	Long break
Jeannot Lapin	—	—