BetMGM EBF 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (Qualifier) (GBB Race)

Ascot

16:02

Date 2025-01-18

Distance 2m5f141y

Class Class 3

Going Good

Type Hurdle

Surface Turf

Age Band 4-7yo

Prize £8,714

Runners (8)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
3	Laurens Bay Bay J:Gavin Sheehan T:Jamie Snowden	J:Gavin Sheehan T:Jamie Snowden	163	—	/1-221	123	118	102	41d	—	—	0	37	0.34/1	11/8 42%
1st or 2nd every time; there's a good chance he will get this trip; improvement is needed
5	U Cant Be Serious Chestnut J:Harry Cobden T:Joe Tizzard	J:Harry Cobden T:Joe Tizzard	163	—	456-71	-	119	107	19d	—	—	-17	7.3	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Always close up at Taunton (2m3f, good to soft) and surged clear in the closing stages
7	Country Park Bay J:Jonjo O'Neill Jr T:Jonjo & A J O'Neill	J:Jonjo O'Neill Jr T:Jonjo & A J O'Neill	157	—	-B232F	121	129	111	29d	—	—	+8	28.9	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Travelling strongly just behind the leaders when he fell two out in a C&D maiden last time
2	Jax Junior Bay J:Tom Cannon T:Lucy Wadham	J:Tom Cannon T:Lucy Wadham	163	—	023-71	-	121	105	35d	—	—	-10	4	1.88/1	15/2 12%
10l Doncaster win is not the best form in this but he made a very positive impression
6	Copper Jack Chestnut J:Jonathan Burke T:Anthony Charlton	J:Jonathan Burke T:Anthony Charlton	157	—	521-74	-	112	59	56d	—	—	-2	0.7	8.25/1	33/1 3%
After his two hurdle races, it does not look like he will be winning one just yet
8	Minella Kaiser Bay J:Bryan Carver T:Chris Gordon	J:Bryan Carver T:Chris Gordon	157	—	38-4	-	85	46	33d	—	—	-1	0.2	31.25/1	125/1 1%
After his two Irish points and a 2m5f Plumpton maiden hurdle, he looks a big outsider
NR	I'm A Lumberjack Bay J:TBC T:Alan King	J: T:Alan King	163	—	639-21	124	127	109	37d	—	—	—	18.5	—	—
Much the strongest in the closing stages at Warwick (2m5f, good to soft); major player
NR	The Bluesman Bay J:NON-RUNNER T:Paul Nicholls	J:NON-RUNNER T:Paul Nicholls	163	—	331-1	-	117	-	57d	—	—	—	10	—	—

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Laurens Bay	5/4	11/8	5/4	5/4	5/4
U Cant Be Serious	5/2	5/2	5/2	11/4	5/2
Country Park	7/2	10/3	10/3	11/4	11/4
Jax Junior	7/1	7/1	15/2	15/2	7/1
Copper Jack	33/1	33/1	33/1	33/1	28/1
Minella Kaiser	125/1	100/1	100/1	100/1	80/1
I'm A Lumberjack	-	-	-	-	-
The Bluesman	-	-	-	-	-

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Laurens Bay

OR: 18.3 Form: 7 Odds: 11.8

11/8

2nd

Country Park

28.9

OR: 17.8 Form: 5 Odds: 6.2

7/2

3rd

I'm A Lumberjack

18.5

OR: 18.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

The Bluesman

OR: 0 Form: 10 Odds: 0

—

U Cant Be Serious

7.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 7.3

11/4

Jax Junior

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 4

15/2

Copper Jack

0.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

33/1

Minella Kaiser

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

125/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
I'm A Lumberjack	124	127	109
Laurens Bay	123	118	102
Country Park	121	129	111
U Cant Be Serious	—	119	107
Jax Junior	—	121	105
Copper Jack	—	112	59
Minella Kaiser	—	85	46
The Bluesman	—	117	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
U Cant Be Serious	19d ago	Fit
Country Park	29d ago	Fit
Minella Kaiser	33d ago	Fit
Jax Junior	35d ago	Fit
I'm A Lumberjack	37d ago	Fit
Laurens Bay	41d ago	Fit
Copper Jack	56d ago	Fresh
The Bluesman	57d ago	Fresh