bet365 Frodon Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

Musselburgh

13:55

Date 2025-02-02

Distance 2m4f68y

Class Class 3

Going Good To Soft

Type Chase

Surface Turf

Age Band 5yo+

Prize £13,008

Winning Time 5m 12.63s (slow by 17.63s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Insurrection (IRE) Harry Cobden · Paul Nicholls	5/1	Won
2nd	Asta La Pasta (IRE) Harry Skelton · Dan Skelton	5/6F	16
3rd	Alien Storm (IRE) David Bass · Charlie Longsdon	7/1	37
4th	Bowmore (IRE) Gavin Sheehan · Henry De Bromhead	12/1	47

Non-Runners / Other

Status	Horse	SP
P.U.	Autumn Return (IRE) Brian Hughes · Ruth Jefferson	12/1
P.U.	Breizh River (FR) Craig Nichol · Paul Robson	22/1
P.U.	Choose A Copper (IRE) Patrick Wadge · Lucinda Russell	10/1

Runners (7)

EW Terms: 2 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
3	Asta La Pasta Bay J:Harry Skelton T:Dan Skelton	J:Harry Skelton T:Dan Skelton	159	t	0-3132	132	147	133	38d	—	—	-8	34.7	0.25/1	Evens 50%
Ran well to be placed in novice handicaps at Newbury and Kempton (2m4f) last two starts
2	Insurrection Bay J:Harry Cobden T:Paul Nicholls	J:Harry Cobden T:Paul Nicholls	161	t	31-233	134	147	124	35d	—	—	+12	24.6	1.38/1	11/2 15%
No match for winner in three-runner handicap at Doncaster (2m4f); needs to find bit extra
5	Alien Storm Bay J:David Bass T:Charlie Longsdon	J:David Bass T:Charlie Longsdon	149	—	-61331	122	148	133	48d	—	—	+26	37.9	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Second Plumpton chase win was over 2m4f (five ran); 2lb rise may well underestimate him
7	Choose A Copper Bay J:Patrick Wadge T:Lucinda Russell	J:Patrick Wadge T:Lucinda Russell	147	t	62-165	120	146	127	31d	—	—	+11	20	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Not out of it if he's straight back to his best after his second wind surgery
6	Autumn Return Bay J:Brian Hughes T:Ruth Jefferson	J:Brian Hughes T:Ruth Jefferson	147	—	8-151P	120	142	107	50d	—	—	+12	19.6	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Mistakes saw her struggle from an early stage in Cheltenham handicap (28-1) latest start
1	Bowmore Brown J:Gavin Sheehan T:Henry De Bromhead	J:Gavin Sheehan T:Henry De Bromhead	164	—	-013F9	137	135	115	38d	—	—	+20	27.1	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Stiff task in Irish handicap last time and it looks to be same here; first run beyond 2m1f
4	Breizh River Bay J:Craig Nichol T:Paul Robson	J:Craig Nichol T:Paul Robson	158	—	11315P	131	145	132	32d	—	0W/0P 1 run	+24	27.6	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Poor show over C&D latest, notwithstanding soft going; stamina not proven at about 2m4f

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Asta La Pasta	evn	10/11	evn	10/11	Evens
Insurrection	11/2	5/1	11/2	11/2	11/2
Alien Storm	6/1	6/1	6/1	6/1	6/1
Choose A Copper	17/2	17/2	17/2	8/1	8/1
Autumn Return	11/1	11/1	11/1	10/1	10/1
Bowmore	12/1	11/1	12/1	12/1	11/1
Breizh River	25/1	20/1	22/1	22/1	25/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Alien Storm

37.9

OR: 18 Form: 16.6 Odds: 3.3

6/1

2nd

Asta La Pasta

34.7

OR: 20.5 Form: 0 Odds: 14.2

Evens

3rd

Breizh River

27.6

OR: 20.3 Form: 6.4 Odds: 1

25/1

Bowmore

27.1

OR: 21.8 Form: 3.5 Odds: 1.9

12/1

Insurrection

24.6

OR: 21 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

11/2

Choose A Copper

OR: 17.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

17/2

Autumn Return

19.6

OR: 17.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

11/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Bowmore	137	135	115
Insurrection	134	147	124
Asta La Pasta	132	147	133
Breizh River	131	145	132
Alien Storm	122	148	133
Choose A Copper	120	146	127
Autumn Return	120	142	107

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Choose A Copper	31d ago	Fit
Breizh River	32d ago	Fit
Insurrection	35d ago	Fit
Asta La Pasta	38d ago	Fit
Bowmore	38d ago	Fit
Alien Storm	48d ago	Fresh
Autumn Return	50d ago	Fresh