BetMGM: It's Showtime Novice Stakes – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

19:00

BetMGM: It's Showtime Novice Stakes

Date 2025-03-10

Distance 1m5y

Class Class 4

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £5,670

Runners (5)

EW Terms: 2 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
5 (2)	Earl Of Rochester Bay J:Kieran Shoemark T:John & Thady Gosden	J:Kieran Shoemark T:John & Thady Gosden	130	—	3-	-	101	-	326d	—	—	-31	20.9	0.17/1	4/6 60%
Came away with two subsequent Group 3 winners on his debut last spring; the one to beat
1 (3)	Bragbor Bay J:Callum Shepherd T:George Scott	J:Callum Shepherd T:George Scott	137	—	1	-	89	12	59d	—	—	-8	17.6	0.56/1	9/4 31%
May ultimately want a stiffer test and needs to improve under a penalty but has potential
4 (4)	Commanding Prince Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:Archie Watson	J:Hollie Doyle T:Archie Watson	130	—	2	-	92	59	26d	—	—	-4	8.6	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Solid debut at Southwell, when greenness cost him; is entitled to improve upped from 7f
3 (1)	Always A Star Bay J:Trevor Whelan T:Harry Charlton	J:Trevor Whelan T:Harry Charlton	130	—	0/4	-	80	48	27d	—	—	-2	0.7	10.00/1	40/1 2%
One to keep an eye on but maybe in handicaps over further after tonight
2 (5)	Agathon Bay J:Kaiya Fraser(3) T:Rebecca Menzies	J:Kaiya Fraser(3) T:Rebecca Menzies	130	—	4/0/6	-	79	-	17d	—	—	0	0.1	37.50/1	150/1 1%
Picked up for 5,000gns as a 3yo; beaten a long way on his recent Southwell comeback

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Earl Of Rochester	8/13	4/6	4/6	8/13	4/6
Bragbor	9/4	9/4	9/4	9/4	85/40
Commanding Prince	6/1	11/2	5/1	11/2	5/1
Always A Star	33/1	40/1	40/1	33/1	40/1
Agathon	150/1	150/1	150/1	150/1	150/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Earl Of Rochester

20.9

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 17.9

4/6

2nd

Bragbor

17.6

OR: 0 Form: 10 Odds: 7.6

9/4

3rd

Commanding Prince

8.6

OR: 0 Form: 5 Odds: 3.6

6/1

Always A Star

0.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

40/1

Agathon

0.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.1

150/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Earl Of Rochester	—	101	—
Bragbor	—	89	12
Commanding Prince	—	92	59
Always A Star	—	80	48
Agathon	—	79	—

Last Run

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 1m5y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5

Based on 4 draws with historical results at this course and distance.