Betfred "Play Fred's £5 Million" Handicap – Haydock

Haydock

16:45

Betfred "Play Fred's £5 Million" Handicap

Date 2025-08-09

Distance 7f37y

Class Class 5

Going Good

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo

Prize £11,515

Runners (13)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
4 (1)	Tropical Heat Bay J:Rossa Ryan T:Clive Cox	J:Rossa Ryan T:Clive Cox	134	t	-44621	68	81	70	15d	—	—	-11	32.2	0.28/1	11/10 48%
Good performances since upped to 7f, finishing second at Haydock then scoring at Sandown
5 (7)	Latynina Bay J:Daniel Tudhope T:David O'Meara	J:Daniel Tudhope T:David O'Meara	134	—	42214	68	75	53	10d	—	—	+3	20.5	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Successful in Chester maiden in most recent 7f attempt; may still have more to offer
1 (9)	Jr Climbs Bay J:Richard Kingscote T:David Evans	J:Richard Kingscote T:David Evans	135	t	4-0984	69	74	49	41d	—	—	-1	6.9	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Signs of a return to form last time; 0-9 in handicaps but has possibilities off this mark
10 (6)	Cooramook Chestnut J:Trevor Whelan T:Harry Eustace	J:Trevor Whelan T:Harry Eustace	127	—	-32660	61	78	72	55d	—	—	0	6.8	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Regressed the last twice; turnaround is possible if she's suited by step back up in trip
7 (11)	Lord Capulet Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Kevin Ryan	J:Tom Eaves T:Kevin Ryan	132	—	5-240	66	69	37	105d	—	—	-1	5.9	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Ran well over 7f in January and may benefit from the return to this trip; not written off
8 (10)	Line Of Force Chestnut J:Warren Fentiman(5) T:Gemma Tutty	J:Warren Fentiman(5) T:Gemma Tutty	131	b	970807	65	80	69	17d	—	—	+1	5	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Has slipped to an attractive mark; may prove resurgent if taking well to blinkers
11 (8)	Volendam Bay J:Ryan Sexton T:Julie Camacho	J:Ryan Sexton T:Julie Camacho	125	h	5-2239	59	77	52	54d	—	—	-1	3.6	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Interesting on penultimate effort, namely third at Haydock behind subsequent winners
9 (2)	Off Spin Bay J:Jack Garritty T:Tim Easterby	J:Jack Garritty T:Tim Easterby	131	—	55-590	65	77	38	10d	—	—	+1	4.8	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Has inconsistent RPRs; chance depends on whether he improves for drop to 7f
12 (3)	Melissa Honey Bay J:David Probert T:Michael Herrington	J:David Probert T:Michael Herrington	125	—	389-74	59	74	57	17d	—	—	-1	3.6	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Running-on fourth over 6f in lower grade last time; return to 7f looks a plus
6 (4)	Renewable Dream b/br J:Gianluca Sanna(5) T:Seb Spencer	J:Gianluca Sanna(5) T:Seb Spencer	134	h	63-5	68	71	61	119d	—	—	+1	5.7	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Solid fifth in Thirsk maiden four months ago; open to improvement in handicaps
3 (5)	Thunder Earthlight Bay J:Sam James T:K R Burke	J:Sam James T:K R Burke	134	—	465-	68	72	-	233d	—	—	+1	5.7	5.50/1	22/1 4%
One to monitor for market confidence on handicap/seasonal debut
13 (12)	Flamborough Head Bay J:Duran Fentiman T:Tim Easterby	J:Duran Fentiman T:Tim Easterby	122	b	273564	56	78	78	20d	—	—	+1	3.1	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Record is only 1-13, the win over 1m; best form in Class 6; others preferred
NR (13)	The Sweet Escape Bay J:Silvestre De Sousa T:David Loughnane	J:Silvestre De Sousa T:David Loughnane	135	—	47504	69	77	50	18d	—	—	—	4.8	—	—
Bred to do better still, being half-brother to four winners for his connections

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Tropical Heat	11/10	11/10	11/10
Latynina	4/1	4/1	4/1
Jr Climbs	10/1	9/1	10/1
Cooramook	12/1	12/1	12/1
Lord Capulet	14/1	14/1	14/1
Line Of Force	18/1	18/1	18/1
Volendam	18/1	16/1	16/1
Off Spin	22/1	22/1	22/1
Melissa Honey	18/1	16/1	16/1
Renewable Dream	18/1	18/1	18/1
Thunder Earthlight	22/1	18/1	18/1
Flamborough Head	40/1	33/1	33/1
The Sweet Escape	-	-	-

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Tropical Heat

32.2

OR: 4.5 Form: 13.5 Odds: 14.2

11/10

2nd

Latynina

20.5

OR: 4.5 Form: 11 Odds: 5

4/1

3rd

Jr Climbs

6.9

OR: 4.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

10/1

Cooramook

6.8

OR: 2.8 Form: 2.1 Odds: 1.9

12/1

Lord Capulet

5.9

OR: 4 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

14/1

Renewable Dream

5.7

OR: 4.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

18/1

Thunder Earthlight

5.7

OR: 4.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

22/1

Line Of Force

OR: 3.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

18/1

Off Spin

4.8

OR: 3.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

22/1

The Sweet Escape

4.8

OR: 4.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Volendam

3.6

OR: 2.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

18/1

Melissa Honey

3.6

OR: 2.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

18/1

Flamborough Head

3.1

OR: 1.5 Form: 0.9 Odds: 0.7

40/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Jr Climbs	69	74	49
The Sweet Escape	69	77	50
Tropical Heat	68	81	70
Latynina	68	75	53
Renewable Dream	68	71	61
Thunder Earthlight	68	72	—
Lord Capulet	66	69	37
Line Of Force	65	80	69
Off Spin	65	77	38
Cooramook	61	78	72
Volendam	59	77	52
Melissa Honey	59	74	57
Flamborough Head	56	78	78

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Latynina	10d ago	Quick return
Off Spin	10d ago	Quick return
Tropical Heat	15d ago	Fit
Line Of Force	17d ago	Fit
Melissa Honey	17d ago	Fit
The Sweet Escape	18d ago	Fit
Flamborough Head	20d ago	Fit
Jr Climbs	41d ago	Fit
Volendam	54d ago	Fresh
Cooramook	55d ago	Fresh
Lord Capulet	105d ago	Long break
Renewable Dream	119d ago	Long break
Thunder Earthlight	233d ago	Long break